The free agency dam may be breaking a bit. At least for beginner pitchers, anyway.
Frankie Montas joins Yusei Kikuchi and Blake Snell settling in with a new team as he signed a two-year, $34 million contract with the Mets on Sunday night. The contract includes a player option for the second year.
The Mets have a lot of work to do with their rotation this offseason as 534 innings released in 2024 by Sean Manaea, Luis Severino and Jose Quintana are currently on the free agent market. Montas is their first attempt at trying to replace some of this lost volume.
Here, I’ll talk about who Montas is as a pitcher, what the Mets might see in him, and how this decision impacts his prospects for fantasy baseball.
How good is Frankie Montas?
This is a loaded question. His 4.84 ERA from last season will tell you, maybe not good at all. Things get even murkier when we return to his disastrous stint with the Yankees and a possible torn labrum that forced him to miss more than a calendar year between 2022 and 2023.
Really, he hasn’t had a good year since 2021, his last full season with the Athletics, when he struck out 207 batters in 187 innings with a 3.37 ERA. Yet Montas still has the foundations of a strong mid-rotation arm.
His average fastball velocity rebounded to nearly 96 MPH and accelerated as last season progressed.
Montas also still has a terrific splitter. He had a 119 Stuff+ rate and a 42.6% whiff rate last season as his go-to pitch. That, coupled with a plus slider, solid cutter, two-seam fastball, and four-seam fastball, gives him a true five-pitch mix with multiple looks to show off hitters on either side of the plate.
Aside from the ugly 2024 ERA, here’s a guy with above-average velocity, a legitimate out-pitch, and a deep repertoire. He’s a solid pitcher.
How good can Frankie Montas be?
This is where it gets fun for fantasy managers and Mets fans. Again, let’s look past that unsightly 4.84 ERA and try to understand what the Mets’ plan for Montas will be.
He was traded from the Reds to the Brewers at the trade deadline last season and made some adjustments that helped his strikeout rate increase from 19.0% in Cincinnati to 28.7% with Milwaukee.
First, check how differently he sequenced his pitches against hitters on either side of the plate before and after the move. The top table is before, the bottom table is after.
The biggest differences here were much more the two seams (I know it says “lead” everywhere but I’ve heard Montas himself calls it a two-seam machineso I’m going to stay consistent with that) versus four-seam hitters early in the count against left-handed hitters. Instead, his four-seamer joined his nasty splitter as another put away throw.
The Brewers are one of the best organizations in baseball at making these in-season game plan adjustments and they’ve clearly unlocked something with Montas.
Additionally, they had him raise his arm angle gradually as the season progressed.
His arm angle was increasing before the trade, so it’s likely that this was simply due to him getting stronger and more comfortable with his surgically repaired shoulder as he threw more of sleeves. Still, it helped his fastball gain a little more life and miss more bats.
Finally, any pitcher would be happy to leave Great American Ballpark. It’s the third worst place to throw and the easiest park to allow a home run according to Statcast Fleet Factors.
American Family Field in Milwaukee is the sixth-easiest park to allow a home run, but it ranks outside of a pitcher’s park overall. Hitting a home run at Citi Field, his new home, is definitely more difficult than others.
How Montas is adjusting to the Mets
Starved for pitching depth, Montas is a lock to be in the Mets’ Opening Day rotation as long as he’s healthy. He is currently listed as the number two starter behind Kodai Senga with other additions likely.
This move is a very obvious reminder of the success the Mets had with Severino and Manaea last winter. They each were coming off a handful of not-great seasons, signed deals similar to this one, made adjustments, and were key cogs in the Mets’ playoff push.
Rather than re-signing them for possibly more money and/or more years, the Mets felt they were better served by trusting their coaching staff and rolling the dice again.
What is the risk?
Obviously, Montas can get injured. He’s still not far from serious shoulder surgery and a past injury is the best indication we have for a future injury.
Any additional issues with his shoulder could also further affect his speed. None of his fastballs have desirable shape, so losing velocity could make them significantly less effective.
Otherwise, his improved strikeout rate in Milwaukee could become a mirage while his walk rate and contact quality remain much worse than league average and he’s headed for a mid-four ERA.
Then he would renege on that deal next winter and the Mets would be forced to pay a below-league-average pitcher for the third starter. The worst case scenario, while not great, is far from a disaster.
Conclusions
Montas is in a much better place now than at any time last year. While the Reds and Brewers are generally considered good places for pitcher development, neither has a home stadium as nice as Citi Field and it’s easy to give Montas and the Mets the benefit of the doubt after two pitchers in very similar situations last season. had years of career.
He will have no competition for a rotation spot and shows legitimate potential to bring his ERA down to the mid-threes with an above-average strikeout rate. That is, if he can stay healthy and expand on the adjustments he made midseason.
He is currently drafted outside the top 500. I expect ADP to jump. Part of that will be due to Mets-mania and others because he is now an attractive dart thrower who should be considered on par with players like David Festa, DJ Herz and Nick Martinez being drafted in the 300s.
