Each week during the 2024-25 NBA season, we’ll dig deeper into some of the league’s biggest storylines to try to determine whether the trends are based more on fact or fiction.
Fact or fiction: something is seriously wrong with the NBA
I thought the discussion about “what’s wrong with the NBA” was primarily driven by social media, where people who supposedly love basketball spent the start of this season looking for answers to declining viewership televised, but the conversation has reached the general public. this week. Commissioner Adam Silver raised concerns in Las Vegas, where NBA Cup participants were also asked about the health of the league, as “Inside the NBA” hosts Charles Barkley and Shaquille O’Neal , have theorized.
“It’s frustrating to me because it’s just a 3-point shooting contest and a free throw contest, and I don’t like it” Barkley, arguably the most influential commentator in the NBA, said on “The Dan Patrick Show.” “They can get angry, but I don’t want to go watch a 3-point shooting contest every night . It’s not fun.”
“It’s driving me crazy“O’Neal added on his own podcast.
Increasing 3-point attempts is probably the most popular position among armchair analysts. Teams are attempting nearly 40 per game, compared to 35 last season, 20 in 2013-14 and 10 in 1993-94.
Even LeBron James – perhaps the only person in the game whose voice carries more weight than Barkley’s – turned his grievance into a response about the latest format of the All-Star Game, telling reporters: “Our game, there are a lot of fucking 3s that are drawn. So it’s a bigger conversation than just the All-Star Game.”
Maybe I’m in the minority, but I don’t understand the principle. Shooting is an important part of the game, perhaps the most important, and an increased degree of difficulty – with a success rate that makes the NBA of the 1980s and early ’90s look incompetent – ​​alone should not explain why people can be transformed. disabled.
Was it better when teams were shooting 40.1 percent on 31.3 mid-range jump shots per game in 1996-97, as far back as the NBA database goes? This figure dropped to 9.8 per game (with a slightly higher success rate). All of these long 2-point shots were pushed beyond the arc, where players are making 35.9% of them. In percentage terms, the difference in eras is marked by one more missed field goal per game (and more points).
But that’s not even the case. The pace has picked up since the height of the Michael Jordan era, when no one wondered what was wrong with the NBA. Placement attempts are on the rise. The success percentages on the field are increasing. Points are up. Everything except mid-range jumpers is up, including dunks. Over a period of 20 years, from the beginning of the century to the present, dunks increased by 35%according to RunRepeat.com.
As Boston Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla, whose defending champions attempt more 3s than any other team, asked us this week, “Why is scoring a problem in basketball , unlike other sports?
If the skill level of the league is higher than it’s ever been — and I don’t think there’s any debate about that — and the offense is at an all-time high, why then? are we not talking about what is RIGHT with the NBA?
Television audiences, that’s why. We do not discuss any other measures regarding the popularity of a sport. And we don’t even understand that. NBA viewership has actually outpaced declines in overall TV audiences.according to Sports Media Watch. Even if we admit that this audience problem is not really a linear television problem, basketball is more consumed than ever. No other league has as many followers on social media.
“If you look at other data, in terms of activity for example, we just had the last two years of the highest attendance in the history of this league,” Silver said during his press briefing before the Tuesday’s NBA game. Cup championship match. “We’re at a point where our social media audience is the highest of any league and continues to grow exponentially, so it’s not a lack of interest in this game.”
Each game series produces countless highlights, quotes and storylines – all the drama we love in sports – easily packaged into clips consumed by millions on social media. According to the NBA, the league generated 10 billion video views on its social networks this season, a record rate. The audience there increased by 90% compared to five years ago. League Pass registrations reach record levels, up 8%.
NBA cable TV audiences are down 13% across all properties, according to Nielsen. But consider this: A Nov. 29 game between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Los Angeles Lakers drew 1.14 million viewers on ESPN, while the game’s recap on Instagram generated an additional 5.2 million views . The NBA has 182.4 million followers across Instagram, X, TikTok and YouTube. NFL, MLB and NHL have 153.4 million followers combined.
Not convinced that this challenges the idea that the NBA is losing its audience? Well, that convinced the league’s broadcast partners, who paid $77 billion for the rights to broadcast games during the 2035-36 season, triple the NBA’s last media deal. Everything but TV ratings tells us the league is thriving.
So why are we so concerned about TV ratings when they are of little interest to those who make decisions based on them and won’t be for a decade, when Stephen Curry is 48?
Because we have thoughtsthis is why, and we must share them. There aren’t enough American-born superstars, and the ones that are left are being force-fed to us in old age. Player empowerment. Load management. Look down the list and you won’t find a real basketball problem other than “too many 3s.”
If you want to go back to 20 years ago, when the scores were in the 70s and 80s, or 40 years ago, when the paint was filled with…everyone, I won’t join you. I saw it. It was cool in its own way. The same goes for basketball today. It’s actually better. If you don’t like the highest level of skill we’ve ever seen that maximized the appeal of the game – scoring – then maybe you just don’t like basketball.
And that’s very good. But those of us who do are tired of listening to the reasons why you don’t. The negativity just feeds a loop about what’s wrong with the NBA when the issue it’s addressing isn’t even an issue and won’t be for three more presidential terms. For what purpose? Who are we trying to convince that basketball is cool? And why? If anything, a discussion about what’s right with the NBA will attract more viewers to what is already a widely consumed product full of compelling narratives.
As refreshing as it was for Kevin Durant to highlight reality versus perception on this topic, he too has fueled a negative news cycle, telling reporters this week: “I hate (the All-Star Game format). I absolutely hate it.“
This is essentially a separate conversation. The league implemented another new All-Star Game format because players stopped trying in the exhibition. They’ve been too busy complaining about it. But the end result is the same: participants in the game undermine the product they are selling. If we keep telling everyone there’s something wrong with the NBA, they’ll believe it, even if it’s not true.
The Celtics defend the championship. The Lakers are led by James, who is doing things at 40 that no one thought possible. Nikola Jokić is perhaps having the best season in his history. Giannis Antetokounmpo is aiming for a third MVP. The pool of candidates for the award is larger than ever. Anthony Edwards, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and a group of young characters attempt to wrest the torch of the league from the establishment superstars. A 7-foot-5-inch unicorn grows behind them. Cooper Flagg arrives.
There are a lot of things to love about the NBA.
But this is not the case for those who supposedly love the sport the most. The fact that this discussion has reached the fervor that it has – leading sports talk shows and fueling hot topics – in a strange way supports the idea that the NBA is more popular than ever. It’s normal to think basketball is good and fun, and you don’t need TV ratings — which line the league’s pockets — to remind you that.
Determination: Fiction. There is nothing serious in the NBA.
