Each week during the 2024-25 NBA season, we’ll dig deeper into some of the league’s biggest storylines to try to determine whether the trends are based more on fact or fiction.
(Last week: Under the rise of Evan Mobley, the Cavaliers become contenders again)
Fact or fiction: home field advantage is dead
The home NBA team won 60% of its regular season games between 2000 and 2013, clear evidence of home-court advantage. That figure dropped to 58% for the first time this century in 2014, when teams first averaged more than 20 3-point attempts per game, and it stayed around that figure until at the end of last decade, when the COVID-19 pandemic revealed a new understanding of home-field advantage.
This figure naturally fell to a new low (54%) during the 2020-21 season, when arenas were mostly empty. With the exception of the 2022-23 campaign, where he hit 58% again, that figure has held steady at 54% since, including this season, as teams’ 3-point attempts have averaged over 35 per game . Which leads us to wonder: is home-field advantage all but dead?
Whichever team made the most 3s in a given game is a much better indicator of who actually won. The team that makes the most 3s wins about 67% of the time, and that number has largely held steady over the past decade. (At the turn of the century, this figure was closer to 60%, the same as home-field advantage.)
This season, it doesn’t matter where the teams play. Home teams are 39-19 when making more than 3; road teams are 36-20 when making more than 3. You’re not necessarily more likely to make more than 3 if you’re playing at home. This is not the case in past seasons, however. Over the previous five years, home teams won 71% of games in which they made more than 3; road teams won 62%. So home-field advantage still exists, and we should expect numbers this season to return to those levels as the sample size increases.
What’s interesting: these numbers held true during the pandemic. So maybe it’s not the crowd that matters; maybe it’s being physically at home – in a familiar arena, sleeping in your own bed – that matters.
Determination: Fiction. Home-field advantage still exists, but not in the way you thought.
Bonus fact or fiction: there is a gaming aspect to exploit here
This 71% mentioned above constitutes what my colleague Tom Haberstroh might call a Large number.
In theory, the seven teams that average 15 or more 3s per game (Celtics, Hornets, Warriors, Timberwolves, Bulls, Cavaliers and Suns) should beat the 10 teams that average 12 or fewer 3s per game (Grizzlies). , Pacers, 76ers, Pistons, Pelicans, Magic, Trail Blazers, Kings, Lakers, Raptors). Indeed, these top seven teams are 18-4 against the other 10, including an 11-0 record at home.
But high-performing teams are more successful because they are better.you might think. (Whether they are better or not because they make more than 3 is a question we’ll address in the future.) How, then, does this explain Charlotte and Chicago, two sub-.500 teams, who are 4-1 against these other 10 teams?
Take for example the Brooklyn Nets, who are terrible but rank sixth in 3-point attempts per game (40.1), ninth in makes (14.4) and are off to a surprising 4-4 start. They have been considerable underdogs against Memphis in two recent games – one at home, one on the road. And they both won, making more than 3 each time.
Now, if you’re a gamer, your eyebrows may raise at this point. If you are more likely to win by making more 3s, you are more likely to hit a greater percentage at home. And more likely to win at home, so maybe there’s something to picking – against the spread – a home team more likely to make more than 3.
Unfortunately, sports betting has turned to this trend. That 18-4 record we mentioned earlier is 12-10 ATS (6-5 at home). Winning 55% of the time is pretty good if you’re in the gambling business, but a sample size of 11 home games is too small to rely on. Something worth keeping an eye on, though.
Determination: Fiction? At least until tonight, when we put this to the test for Pacers-Hornets. Indiana, which ranks 27th in 3-point attempts and 22nd in 3-point attempts, is a seven-point favorite on the road against Charlotte, which ranks second in 3-point attempts and makes. Play responsibly, my friends.
