This article is part of our Tips and Tricks series, where we use data and know-how to identify trends and insights for Euro 2024. You can find all articles in the series. here.
Euro 2024 is finally launched and we have had goals, shocks, thrills and excesses. Unfortunately, none of that was present in England’s slow 1-0 win over Serbia in Gelsenkirchen. You can’t have it all, can you?
Nonetheless, expectations remain high as the second series of games kicks off and we’re back with data analytics to help you uncover hidden truths that you can use to your advantage. Let’s go.
England, shy
England got the job done against Serbia in their Euro 2024 opener and Gareth Southgate is likely to do the same against Denmark on Thursday (5 p.m. UK).
Southgate’s side were hot favorites in Gelsenkirchen and Jude Bellingham graced another big stage, scored the only goal and was the deserved man of the match. But just behind him in the player rankings were the boys at the back, John Stones and Marc Guehi, as well as midfielder Declan Rice.
But questions were still raised about Harry Kane’s role – why he had just two touches in the first half against Serbia and a limited impact overall (below) – and Phil Foden’s international form . It’s hard to imagine England going through this tournament without hitting their stride, something Kane often takes time to do too, but it’s unlikely to be against Denmark.
They limited Serbia to six shots (one more than England managed) and there’s an interesting stat going around. Since 1980, of the five Europe championship matches with the fewest goal attempts, Southgate’s team took part in three of them — against Serbia on Sunday (11 shots) and against the Czech Republic (12) and Germany (14) three years ago.
Before the tournament, AthleticismLiam Tharme that against stronger opponents, Denmark prefers the defensive basis of a 5-4-1 or a 5-3-2 rather than a 4-3-3. So a low number of goals is very attractive, as is England winning by one.
Morata’s Indian Summer
Group B’s big hitters were lagging behind England, France, Germany and Portugal in pre-tournament betting for Euro 2024, and although Italy’s opener taught us little things we didn’t know, Spain may have changed its mind.
In his Italian team guide, AthleticismJames Horncastle’s mentioned the lack of a prolific striker and this was evident in their opening win against Albania.
Defender Alessandro Bastoni and midfielder Nicolo Barella found the net as the Italians recovered from a conceded goal after 23 seconds before dominating possession (68.3%) and scoring more than twice more shots than their opponents (17-8). But they added nothing to their total and won 2-1.
Spain managed just one more as they beat Croatia 3-0, but they looked adept, with Alvaro Morata on the scoresheet for the 10th time in a major tournament and Lamine Yamal, 16 years old, in fine form, leading the way for his side as the player involved in the most shooting sequences (below).
Morata has 36 goals in 74 appearances for Spain and the 31-year-old leads the betting markets in goalscorers. He’s worth lining up for the opener and scoring at any time, but Yamal should also be on any shortlist after coming close during his outstanding performance against Croatia.
The weak left in France
As expected, France and the Netherlands got off to winning starts, but there was a clear feeling that the Group D heavyweights still had a long way to go.
The Dutch had to come from behind to overcome a Polish side without their best player, the injured Robert Lewandowski, while France needed an own goal to beat Austria. There is also concern over Kylian Mbappe after he broke his nose late in Düsseldorf.
Mbappe is yet to score at a European Championship (his 12 tournament goals have been spread across two World Cups), but he will be well-backed to break his duck if he plays on Friday.
He was unlucky twice against Austria and provided the cross for the only goal. Not long ago, he beat Ronald Koeman’s side by four in qualifying, with the French winning 4-1 in Paris and 2-1 in Amsterdam.
France are favorites for this meeting, but the Netherlands cannot be excluded. Take a look at Ahmed Walid’s group guide, where he cites France’s left side as a potential weak point. Then consider that most of the Netherlands’ offensive touches against the Poles came to the right (below).
We should still think of France, who are worth taking to win with both teams scoring, but in the player markets (score or assist), Dutch winger Xavi Simons is at the top of the list.
The best of the rest
Frankfurt hosted the first major upset of Euro 2024 when Slovakia beat Belgium and Group E has an interesting preview heading into the second round.
Romelu Lukaku and his teammates – ranked third in the world – are now behind Slovakia and Romania in the race to top their group and finishing second would likely mean a last-16 tie against France or the Netherlands.
Lukaku may be feeling particularly annoyed after putting the ball in the net twice against Slovakia, but the VAR intervenes and (rightly) calls offside on the first and (harshly) rules out the second for a handball in the preparation.
Slovakia were lucky at times as Belgium missed a string of chances, but it’s Ukraine who will play next for Francesco Calzona’s side, who have now won seven of their last nine competitive matches, losing two against Portugal.
Ukraine were sloppy defensively in a 3-0 loss to Romania, so Slovakia are the pick in this match. As for Belgium, it should return to victory against Romania. In the English group, Serbia should beat Slovenia.
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