PHILADELPHIA — Jalen is in pain I didn’t waste any time clarifying things.
THE Philadelphia Eagles The quarterback spoke directly to his running back late Monday night and shared the message with reporters. Hurts was disappointed by the 22-21 loss to the Atlanta Falconsof course. But he didn’t channel this disappointment towards Saquon Barkley after Barkley fell late in the match.
“We just didn’t make the play at that point,” Hurts said. “I trust him every moment. He’s a heck of a player. He gave us a big spark in those moments.”
“That wasn’t our case tonight. We’ll be better off for it.”
The decline that lingered in the air at Lincoln Financial Field doesn’t necessarily have to define the Eagles’ season. By some advanced analysis, it didn’t even headline the loss that dropped Philadelphia to 1-1.
Let’s break it down.
After the Falcons running back Bijan Robinson After failing to convert on fourth-and-1 from the Atlanta 39-yard line, the Eagles got the ball back, leading 18-15 with 5:38 left.
Their chances of winning, according to NFL Next Gen Stats’ win probability model: 86 percent.
As the Eagles marched 29 yards down the field thanks to 26 yards gained on six touches by Barkley, the odds continued to tilt in their favor.
Philadelphia then faced a third-and-3. Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni and offensive coordinator Kellen Moore watched as the Falcons defense began to pack the box. Philadelphia didn’t deviate from its best player, but the team trusted him to move left to right and then roll right to catch the ball.
Hurts’ pass hit both of Barkley’s hands before the running back lost it. Philadelphia settled for a field goal.
“If you make that catch, the game is over,” Barkley said afterward. “I let the ball down. I let my team down today. I shouldn’t have put the defense in that position.”
Barkley’s responsibility was not surprising. New York Giants“The second overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft has been a model of accountability for the better part of six seasons with his now-division rival.
And yet, while Barkley dropped the pass, did he actually drop the ball during the game? His teammates and coaches say he didn’t, and there’s data to back that up.
Win probability models are just one indicator of how much of an impact a play has on the outcome of a game. The surprisingly small impact of Barkley’s fall on the outcome reflects how bad things had to go for Philadelphia to ultimately lose.
The Eagles had a 99 percent chance of winning before the fall, according to Next Gen Stats’ model, and a 94 percent chance after the 3-and-3 whiff. Eagles kicker Jake Elliott connected on the field goal to extend Philadelphia’s lead from 3 to 6 points with 1:42 left, their algorithmic chance of success was still 85%.
While Saquon’s fall seemed costly in the Eagles’ loss to MNF, it’s interesting to note that it only tipped the balance @NextGenStats Eagles win probability model from 99% to 94%. After the draw, the Eagles still had an 85% chance of winning.
The Falcons’ 2-minute drive + Jalen’s INT continued the swing. pic.twitter.com/7vfV10o09e
– Jori Epstein (@JoriEpstein) September 18, 2024
A 70-yard Falcons drive in just 65 seconds scuppered that chance. Jessie Bates Hurts’ interception by III with 27 seconds left ended the game.
“We’re all going to have things we want back,” Sirianni said. “We’re all responsible for that loss.”
In two weeks, Barkley validates the Eagles’ lucrative investment
Barkley reassured Hurts that he would improve after the relegation.
“I could sit here and complain and be upset about it, or I could be a professional athlete and go back to the drawing board,” Barkley said. “I’ve made this play many times. I’ve missed this play before.”
“I have to be a man, own what I do, and I can promise these guys in this locker room that I’m going to get better.”
Barkley has already exceeded expectations since Philadelphia signed him as a free agent in March.
The NFL’s monetary trends have shifted away from placing high value on running backs, particularly on second contracts, partly because of concerns about the durability of veteran running backs and partly because of the belief that schematic creativity and investment in the offensive line can compensate for the talent of top-tier running backs.
In other words: Some teams looking to save money somewhere think the running back position is their safest bet.
If a few good players combine to produce 60% of what a great player could be for 10% of the money, for example, many NFL teams will accept that tradeoff.
The Eagles bucked that trend when they signed Barkley to a three-year, $37.75 million contract with $26 million in guarantees that essentially pays him $13 million each this year and next.
Barkley’s guarantees rank third at the position and his average annual value ranks fourth.
In two weeks, he validated this investment.
After averaging 88.7 yards from scrimmage per game in 14 games with the Giants last season, Barkley is averaging 124 yards from scrimmage through two weeks with the Eagles — his best mark since 2018, when he averaged 126.75 yards per game as a rookie.
Barkley’s 102 rushing yards per game tops his previous high by 20 yards and his 2023 production of 33.3 per game. And while two weeks is a small sample size, his production has come against playoff contenders like the Falcons and Green Bay Packers.
Only Alvin Kamara scored more touchdowns than Barkley’s three.
And Barkley’s league-high 52 touches have drawn defensive attention away from Hurts, who is also reestablishing the escape art that helped power the Eagles’ NFC title campaign two seasons ago.
On Monday night, Hurts had 85 rushing yards, which is higher than all of his records from last season, and his 6.5 yards per attempt is also higher than each of his records from 2023. The duo works well together.
“Some things click when they need to, and that’s what happened,” Hurts said of his run production. “Obviously, it wasn’t enough to get the win.”
Philadelphia will need a lot more firepower Sunday when it visits the New Orleans Saints (2-0), whose 91 points in two weeks are 21 more than the second Arizona CardinalsHurts and Barkley will then have to carry the load as they did Monday night, as receivers. AJ Brown is working on a hamstring injury.
Their teammates expect them to do so, including at the next opportunity to score a first try late in the game.
“We know he’s going to make those plays (and) he knows he’s going to make those plays,” the veteran defensive end said. Brandon Graham “We all trust each other on the pitch. We let that chance slip away today. It’s unfortunate, but it’s a good lesson for us. … As a good team, we have to make sure we don’t let chances slip away because that’s what happens – you get beaten like that.”
“We also had difficult times, when we came back because of the mistakes of others.”
