The NASCAR Cup Series Round of 16 begins today at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
A classic 1.5 mile track, Las Vegas will compare to other 1.5 mile tracks, with emphasis on Kansas Speedway as it is the closest comparable track.
Drivers were also treated to a 20-minute free practice session, which notably took place under a partial solar eclipse, making track temperatures cooler than they normally would be. This in part led to tire issues for Hendrick Motorsports drivers Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson. Luckily for Larson, he was able to save his car before hitting the wall.
Elliott was not so lucky and will start the race from the back of the pack.
Before we move on to my picks, remember that all of my NASCAR projections can be found in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabscomplete with floor, ceiling, median and property projections.
Let’s not skip the best part – my Perfect% metric – a metric that tells you how often certain runners appear in the optimal lineup when running 10,000 race simulations.
And don’t forget the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Range optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 queues or our Range generator if you like to create your queues by hand.
Here are my NASCAR DFS picks for Sunday’s South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
Las Vegas DraftKings DFS Cash Game Picks
Kyle Larson ($11,000): Aside from the tire issue, Larson has been fastest over 10 consecutive laps in testing and is the favorite to win the race.
Larson dominated the two most recent races on 1.5-mile tracks in Kansas, where he led the most laps, and in Texas, where he had the fastest car before a late-race incident.
Expect more of the same today, with Larson dominating in the laps led and fastest laps department.
Larson is projected to have 70.5 rounds lead and 24.5 fastest rounds on PrizePicks, the latter being only two more than William Byron. Be sure to check out all the pick’ems PrizePicks has to offer with PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 deposit match.
Chase Elliott ($9,200): Thanks to a tire problem, Elliott starts 35th out of 36 cars, meaning the only place he has left is to advance.
With all that potential for a place difference and a fast car in practice before the incident, Elliott is a cash game favorite.
Daniel Suarez ($7,300): Likewise for Suarez, he was unable to complete a qualifying lap and will go into the field in full force.
Earlier in the year, Suarez was quite fast on this type of track, placing in the top 12 in my FLAGS metricbut more recently he has moved closer to the middle of the pack in terms of speed on these tracks.
However, even the middle of the pack is more than enough to make the optimal lineup at its price point thanks to the potential for a place difference that comes with the 36th starting spot.
Las Vegas DraftKings DFS Tournament Picks
Tyler Reddick ($10,300): After the Hendrick duo of Larson and William Byron, Reddick was the class of the bunch remaining in training.
He posted the fourth-best five-lap average and the third-best 10-lap average, passing Chris Buescher, whose Ford showed a higher degree of tire wear than Reddick’s Toyota.
Reddick won at Kansas earlier in the playoffs, which is of course the most similar course to Las Vegas. It should be bright again today.
Ross Chastain ($8,300): The Watermelon Man has been pretty quiet throughout the NASCAR playoffs, but Las Vegas is a great opportunity to change things up.
Earlier this year, Chastain owned the fastest car in Las Vegas according to FLAGS, and he appears to have a fast car again. He set the fastest single-lap time during testing, as well as the fastest five-lap average.
All the attention paid to Larson and Byron’s HMS cars, as well as the Toyota cars, should help keep Chastain’s usage in check.
I like getting overweight with him. There are so many benefits at this price point.
Austin Cindric ($6,000): It’s hard to recommend Cindric given the struggles he had in his second campaign, but we’re getting him at a great price and perception.
Cindric’s teammates, Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney, were the class of the Ford in practice, with the possible exception of playoff contender Chris Buescher.
This gives Cindric an advantage knowing her side is fast. At worst, he was in the same range as his Ford colleagues Michael McDowell, Aric Almirola and Ryan Preece in training, who are also priced in the $6,000 range.
Cindric finished sixth at Las Vegas earlier this year, his only top 10 finish outside of road courses and superspeedways. A repeat of this situation is certainly within reach. With a projected usage of less than 10%, Cindric has unique abilities to gain GPP.
However, also be prepared for a lot of inconvenience if he continues to struggle. So while I like to have on-field leverage with him up to around 20%, don’t go too crazy.
