THE The Dodgers signed Kyle Tuckerlanding the best free agent on the market with a staggering four-year, $240 million contract. After setting competitive balance fiscal records in each of the last two seasonsthis decision ensured that they would remain in this region for at least two more years, if not longer.
But aside from the pure financial cost of signing Tucker — $60 million per year on average, or $57.1 million AAV for competitive tax purposes, accounting for deferrals — comes another penalty.
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Tucker was one of nine free agents to reject a qualifying offer in November. Any new team that drafts such a player risks a draft loss. As a competitive taxpayer, the Dodgers’ penalty for signing a qualifying free agent tender is forfeiting their second- and fifth-highest draft picks. If this sounds familiar, it’s because the Dodgers Already signed a qualifying offer as a free agent adding Edwin Díaz in December.
Signing free agents with a qualifying offer is nothing new for the Dodgers, after recruiting AJ Pollock (2019), Trevor Bauer (2021), Freddie Freeman (2022), and Shohei Ohtani (2024) previously. But it’s the first time they’ve signed two in the same offseason.
Since the Dodgers gave up their second and fifth picks for signing Díaz, their penalty for adding Tucker will cause them to lose their third and sixth round selections in July. That leaves a relatively empty cupboard at the top of their 2026 draft board.
The Dodgers’ first-round pick would normally be 30th overall, late in the first round after winning the World Series. But because they exceeded the third competitive balance tax threshold last season — they also exceeded the fourth (highest) threshold — the Dodgers will see their first pick fall 10 spots to 40th overall. We saw this in both 2022 and 2024 Also.
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The draft order for 2026 is not yet finalized, as there are still three eligible free agents on the market: Framber Valdez, Bo Bichette and Zac Gallen. But at least we have a general idea of when the Dodgers will pick in July.
|
Round |
Choose the number. |
Location value equivalent to 2025 |
|
1 |
40 |
$2,443,600 |
|
4 |
137 |
$534,100 |
|
7 |
226 |
$248,700 |
|
8 |
256 |
$210,900 |
|
9 |
286 |
$195,300 |
|
10 |
316 |
$187,300 |
|
Total |
bonus pool |
$3,819,900 |
A team’s draft bonus pool is made up of the recommended slot values for each pick of that team over the first 10 rounds. Every signing bonus from the first 10 rounds counts toward the pool, as does any amount over $150,000 for picks after the 10th round. Teams are allowed to exceed the bonus pool, with a 75 percent tax on any excess up to five percent above the pool. Anything over five percent would result in the loss of draft picks. In the 15 years this system has existed, no MLB team has spent enough to incur this draft penalty.
But the bottom line is that the Dodgers will likely have less to spend than any other year in the draft system. If we use 2025 slot values for each estimated Dodgers pick in 2026, that equates to $3,819,900. Slots and bonus pools grew by 8.7% between 2023 and 2024, but grew by only 4.8 percent between 2024 and 2025. If the Dodgers’ total slot value increases by 4.8% this year, they will have $4,003,255 to spend. If the amount increases by 8.7 percent, they will have $4,152,231 to spend.
Regardless, this will be their lowest bonus pool in the 16 years of the slot selection system. Their previous lowest it was in 2022 with $4,223,800 to spenda little below 2021 when their bonus pool was $4,646,700. The Dodgers had a higher bonus pool even in 2020 ($5,928,500) when the draft was truncated to just five rounds.
