Did the Red Sox give up too much for Contreras? A prospects expert intervenes originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
Boston Red Sox got a much-needed right-handed bat and first base upgrade in Willson Contrerasbut did they give up too much in their trade with the St. Louis Cardinals?
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Boston parted ways with right-hander Hunter Dobbins and minor league right-handers Yhoiker Fajardo and Blake Aita. Dobbins, a former top pitcher in the Red Sox system, showed potential in his first taste of big league action before suffering a torn ACL in July. Fajardo was the No. 8 ranked Red Sox prospect, according to SoxProspects.comwhile Aita lands just outside the top 30.
Is Contreras worth that price? Ian Cundall of SoxProspects.com shared his views on the trade during a recent conversation with NBC Sports Boston.
“I thought it was a fair return,” Cundall said. “They didn’t have to give up any of their top prospects, and Fajardo is the best prospect there. Obviously, Dobbins is a special case since he’s already graduated.”
The Red Sox originally acquired Fajardo from the Chicago White Sox for reliever Cam Booser last offseason. The 19-year-old showed strong potential, but one notable flaw may have led to his departure.
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“The problem with him, and this is something that’s a trend with all three pitchers in this deal, is that he really struggles to throw guys out with his fastball,” Cundall said. “And if we know one thing with Craig Breslow, they want swing and miss in the zone, and especially on the fastball. You see guys like Garrett Crochet or Aroldis Chapman, all the guys he acquires at the major league level, that’s what they do. Unfortunately, that’s the weakest part of Fajardo’s game.”
As for Aita, Cundall sees the 22-year-old having future success as a reliever, but he’s not someone Red Sox fans should lose sleep over trading.
“His best thing is he can really spin a breaking ball,” Cundall said. “He’s got a sweeper and a curveball, and the sweeper has one of the highest spin rates in the organization. … But I think other than the sweeper, it’s more like an average fringe arsenal. Long term, he’s probably best suited for the bullpen.
“I think he could be a pretty decent reliever there, because if you can swing a breaking ball like he does, you’ll have a chance in the big leagues. He’s a pretty high profile guy, but I’m just not sure how much upside there is there.”
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Dobbins, of course, was the headliner of Boston’s business program. The 26-year-old has accumulated a 4.13 ERA and 1.28 WHIP with 45 strikeouts and 17 walks over his first 13 MLB appearances (11 starts). A torn ACL ended his rookie year prematurely, but he was expected to contend for the fifth spot in the Red Sox 2026 rotation.
Despite Dobbins’ advantage, Cundall has no problem with Boston sending him to St. Louis for assist on first base after missing Pete Alonso in free agency.
“I always come back to the idea that you have to give something to get something,” Cundall said. “When you look at the Red Sox, their first base production that they’ve gotten over the last few years is just unacceptable. It’s supposed to be one of your highest scoring offensive positions. I think their wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus) was 86 or something like that last year. You can’t have that and then also bad defense, which is the other thing they’ve had.
“I think with Contreras, when you look at the options available, he makes half as much money as Pete Alonso. He’s a much better defender. And yes, Alonso is going to hit more home runs, but I think when you look at ultimately their overall production as wRC+, it’s going to be pretty similar, because Contreras can reach the bases, he’s going to hit 20 to 25 homers. He’s going to hit a lot of doubles at Fenway, especially given his ability to shoot the ball in the air, is obviously an above average defender early on, so I think he adapts well.
Like Fajardo and Aita, Dobbins struggled to feel his fastball. Cundall believes that’s one of the main reasons the Breslow-led front office was comfortable including him in the deal.
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“You can get by for a few weeks or a few months, but it’s just hard to get by without a fastball missing in the big leagues to be anything other than a starter year in and year out,” Cundall said. “I think that’s the thing with Dobbins, as much as I like the mentality, the personality, the way he throws, there’s a lot to like there. He’s got a very broad arsenal, he can really mix it up and make things happen.
“But at the end of the day, you have to be able to establish your fastball, and he just doesn’t really have that pitch right now. … So to me, he’s more of a back-end type, and they just got an everyday upgrade at first base on a very reasonable deal.”
With Contreras in the fold, it’s going to be interesting to follow how the Red Sox proceed with fellow first baseman Triston Casas. Casas missed most of the 2025 campaign due to a ruptured patellar tendon and will have to fight for a role on the 2026 club, with Contreras expected to be the primary first baseman.
As for Boston’s pitching depth without Dobbins, it’s still in good shape with Kutter Crawford, Patrick Sandoval, Connelly Early, Payton Tolle, Kyle Harrison and the newly acquired Johan Oviedo expected to battle for spots at the back of the starting rotation.
