Miami faces Indiana in the College Football Playoff championship game on Monday night, with BetMGM Sportsbook listing Indiana as an 8.5-point favorite entering the weekend.
Will it be a blowout?
The top-seeded Hoosiers (15-0) beat Alabama (38-3) and Oregon (56-22) in the CFP as they pursue the program’s first championship. This represents a winning margin of 34.5 points.
Advertisement
The 10th-seeded Hurricanes (13-2) beat Texas A&M (10-3), Ohio State (24-14) and Mississippi (31-27) en route to the title game, where they will play for their sixth national championship since the poll era began in 1936. That’s a 7-point winning margin, but the fact is the Canes are used to closer games lately and maybe that will serve them well.
How Miami can win
Carson Beck must continue to do what he is doing. His passing numbers over the last three games aren’t eye-popping, but he’s 18 of 26 on third downs with 15 conversions, according to Sportradar, and he led the late 15-play, 75-yard touchdown drive to beat Ole Miss in the semifinals.
The need for canes Mark Fletcher Jr. to shake up an Indiana defense that has given up just 2.7 yards per carry in two playoff games and has allowed fewer than 100 yards rushing in 13 of 15 games. Fletcher has been at his best lately, averaging 6.8 yards per carry and averaging over 130 yards per game in the CFP.
Advertisement
Miami can’t win without putting pressure on Fernando Mendoza. The ‘Canes lead the nation in sacks, and they recorded a total of 12 against Texas A&M and Ohio State before going to Trinidad Chambliss just once in the semifinals. Mendoza can extend plays, but he’s not the jammer that Chambliss is.
The ‘Canes also need to play a clean game. They committed 10 penalties against Ole Miss, including three false starts, roughing the passer, targeting, a personal foul and pass interference.
How Indiana Can Win
It starts with Mendoza, of course. The Heisman Trophy winner threw eight touchdown passes and no interceptions against Alabama and Oregon, but now faces the fiercest pass rush in the country. His 6% sack rate is comparable to the Bowl Subdivision average, but in some games he had a tendency to take them in bunches. This can’t be one of those games.
Advertisement
Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black are a terrific 1-2 punch at running back and can relieve Mendoza if there is room to move around. Top receivers Omar Cooper Jr., Elijah Sarratt and Charlie Becker will face a Miami secondary that will be shorthanded for the first half due to Xavier Lucas’ targeted ejection against Ole Miss.
The defense needs to keep Fletcher in check, get creative with blitzes against one of the the best offensive lines in the country and be sure to contain flashy freshman Malachi Toney when he gets the ball down the field.
The choice
Both teams perform storybook races. A few months ago, Indiana was still officially the worst team in Bowl Subdivision history in terms of overall losses. Miami, the brash bully who fell on hard times, can return to the top in its home stadium.
Advertisement
This story ends in crimson and cream: INDIANA wins, 31-21.
AP Predictions Dashboard
CFP semi-finals – Direct – 1-1; Against the spread – 1-1.
Season: Straight — 196-65 (75.1%); Against spread — 126-134-1 (48.3%).
___
Get poll alerts and updates on the AP Top 25 throughout the season. Register here. AP college football: https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll And https://apnews.com/hub/college-football
