Teams can extend qualifying offers to certain free agents each offseason. Players who accept are signed with their teams for the following season at the stated value (set at approximately $20.5 million for 2024). Those who don’t accept remain free agents, and if a new team signs them, their old team receives draft pick compensation.
Here’s a look at the top candidates to receive a qualifying offer this offseason, as well as a list of notable players who are not eligible for a QO and information on QO-related draft compensation.
Shohei OhtaniDH/SP (Angels)
Ohtani’s unprecedented two-way dominance continued in 2023, until he suffered a right elbow injury that required surgery. Although Ohtani won’t pitch again until 2025, he remains one of the most anticipated free agents in baseball history. The 29-year-old will likely win the AL MVP award for a second time after producing an AL-leading 44 homers with 20 steals and an MLB-best OPS of 1.066 on offense, and a 3.14 ERA with 167 strikeouts in 132 innings. mound. Since the start of 2021, Ohtani has recorded 28.5 WAR.
Matt Chapman3B (Blue Jays)
Chapman faded after a hot start at the plate in 2023, but he was still batting above average this year (108 OPS+). Given his stellar defense at the hot corner, the 30-year-old was a 4.4 WAR player (according to Baseball-Reference) for the Blue Jays. Going back to his first full season in 2018, only three third basemen posted more WAR than Chapman (28): José Ramírez, Alex Bregman and Nolan Arenado.
Cody BellingerOF (Small)
The 2019 NL MVP, Bellinger was not retained by the Dodgers last offseason after posting a .193/.256/.355 slash line in 2021-22. The 28-year-old outfielder landed with the Cubs on a one-year deal, and he’ll get another chance in free agency after rejuvenating his career with a strong bounce-back season, hitting .307 with 26 homers, 97 RBIs and 20 interceptions. and an .881 OPS over 130 games.
J.D. MartinezDH (Dodgers)
After producing just 16 home runs and a .790 OPS for the Red Sox in 2022, Martinez signed a one-year deal with the Dodgers last offseason and proceeded to have a vintage campaign. Despite only playing in 113 games, the 36-year-old had 33 home runs and 103 RBIs to go along with his .893 OPS.
Teoscar HernándezOF (Sailors)
Acquired from the Blue Jays last offseason, Hernández had a difficult season compared to what he had with Toronto previously. While the outfielder finished with 26 homers and 93 RBIs, his OPS fell to .741 (.852 in 2020-22), as he struck out 211 times in 678 plate appearances.
Jorge SolerOF (Marlins)
Soler is expected to opt out of the final year of his contract – he is guaranteed $14 million in 2024 – after hitting 36 home runs and posting an .853 OPS last season. It was a dramatic improvement from his first year in Miami, where he produced just 13 home runs and a .695 OPS in 72 games.
Blake SnellSP (Padres)
Snell will reach free agency as a likely NL Cy Young Award winner, having posted an MLB-best 2.25 ERA – including a 1.20 ERA over his last 23 starts – with 234 strikeouts in 180 innings. Although wild at times (he has issued an MLB-high 99 walks in 2023), the left-hander has posted a 3.20 ERA in 191 career starts.
Josh HaderPR (Padres)
After a rough two months that led to a career-high 5.22 ERA in 2022, Hader put together a stellar season from start to finish in 2023. The left-hander posted a 1.28 ERA with 33 saves and 85 K in 56 1/3. sleeves. Hader, 29, owns a 2.50 career ERA with a 0.94 WHIP and a 15.0 K/9 over 349 appearances.
Rhys Hoskins1B (Philies)
Hoskins missed his age-30 campaign after tearing his ACL in spring training, but he will enter free agency with a resume that includes 148 homers, 405 RBIs, 388 walks and an .846 OPS over 667 career games.
Aaron NolaMS (Phillies)
Before turning the page on the postseason, Nola struggled to string together positive outings in 2023, finishing the regular season with a 4.46 ERA – up from 3.25 in 2022. However, his durability and strikeout stuff batting – he made at least 32 starts. and has recorded over 200 Ks in each of the last five full seasons – will give him significant appeal on the free agent market.
Sonny GraySP (twins)
Gray has played for four teams in 11 years in the Majors, but this will be his first chance to test free agency. The right-hander is coming off a tremendous season, posting a 2.79 ERA, an MLB-leading 2.83 FIP and 183 strikeouts in 184 innings – his most since pitching 208 for the A’s in 2015.
INELIGIBLE FOR THE ELIGIBLE OFFER
Not all free agents can receive a QO. Players who have already received a QO are not eligible, meaning the following free agents (and potential free agents with 2024 options or opt-outs) are not eligible to receive one:
Brandon Belt (Blue Jays), Hyun Jin Ryu (Blue Jays), Josh Donaldson (Brewers), Carlos Santana (Brewers), Marcus Stroman (Small), Jason Heyward (The Dodgers), Lance Lynn (The Dodgers), Alex Cobb (Giants), Michael Conforto (Giants), Joc Pederson (Giants), AJ Pollock (Giants), David Robertson (Marlins), Craig Kimbrel (Philies), Jake Odorizzi (Rangers), Martin Perez (Rangers), Will Smith (Rangers), Justin Turner (The Red Sox), Zack Greinke (Royals), Eduardo Rodriguez (Tigers), Dallas Keuchel (Twins), Yasmani Grandal (White Sox)
Players who have not been continuously with an organization, whether in the minors or majors, from Opening Day through the end of the regular season are also not eligible. Notable free agents in this category who were not mentioned above include:
CJ Cron (Angels), Jordan Hicks (Blue Jays), Jeimer Candelario (Small), Tommy Pham (back D), Amed Rosario (The Dodgers), Lucas Giolito (Guardians), Matt Moore (Marlins), Jack Flaherty (Orioles), Aroldis Chapman (Rangers), Jordan Montgomery (Rangers), Harrison Bader (Red)
Compensation for losing players who reject their QO
If a team makes a qualifying offer to a player who then signs elsewhere, the club that lost the player is eligible for draft pick compensation the following year.
• Competitive balanced tax payers: If the team losing the player has exceeded the CBT threshold, the compensation pick will be placed once the fourth round is completed. The value of the player’s contract does not matter in this case.
• Beneficiaries of revenue sharing: If the team losing the player benefits from revenue sharing, based on revenue and market size, then the draft — if and only if the lost player signs for at least $50 million — will be awarded a pick between the first round and competitive balance round A of the MLB Draft. If the player signs for less than $50 million, the compensation choice for those teams will come after the Competitive Balance Round B, which follows the second round.
• All other teams: If the team losing the player does not receive revenue sharing and did not exceed the CBT salary threshold in the previous season, its compensatory selection will come after competitive balance round B. The value of the player’s contract does not doesn’t matter in this case.
Penalties for recruited players who reject their OQ
Any team that drafts a player who has rejected a qualifying offer faces the loss of one or more draft picks. However, a team’s highest first-round pick is exempt from forfeiture. (Players who were not signed after the start of the MLB Draft within one year of having their qualifying offer rejected are no longer tied to draft pick compensation and may be signed without their new club need to give up a draft pick.)
Three levels of draft pick forfeiture – based on the financial situation of the signing team – are in place to serve as a penalty for signing a player who has rejected a qualifying offer:
• Competitive balanced tax payers: A team that exceeded the CBT threshold the previous season will lose its second- and fifth-highest selections in the following year’s draft, as well as $1 million from its international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period. If such a team signs multiple free agents offering a qualifying offer, it will also lose its remaining third and sixth picks.
• Beneficiaries of revenue sharing: A team that receives revenue sharing money will lose its third-highest selection in the following year’s draft. If he drafts two of these players, he will also lose his remaining fourth pick.
• All other teams: If a team does not receive revenue sharing and did not exceed the CBT salary threshold the previous season, it will lose its second-highest selection in the following year’s draft, as well as $500,000 of its international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period. If either team drafts two of these players, they will also lose their third-highest remaining pick and an additional $500,000.
These are preliminary rankings for each team that will determine which draft picks they will receive (for a retiring QO player) or lose (for a QO player signing). These rankings will be finalized once the competitive balance tax payrolls are determined in early December.
Competitive Balance Tax Taxpayers: Angels, Blue Jays, Braves, Dodgers, Mets, Padres, Phillies, Rangers, Yankees
Revenue sharing beneficiaries: Athletics, Brewers, D-backs, Guardians, Mariners, Marlins, Orioles, Pirates, Rays, Reds, Rockies, Royals, Tigers, Twins
All other clubs: Astros, Cardinals, Cubs, Giants, Nationals, Red Sox, White Sox
