BYU looks to improve to 4-0 in the Big 12 by hosting TCU at the Marriott Center late Wednesday night. BYU hasn’t started 4-0 in conference play since the 2012-13 season; this was the only year BYU played in the WCC going 4-0. TCU is 1-2 in conference play after a win over Baylor and losses to Kansas and Arizona.
The game begins at 9 p.m. MT on ESPN2.
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BYU and TCU by the numbers
TCU KenPom: 52
NET Rank: 42
Registration: 11-5
Best wins: Florida (N), Wisconsin (N), Baylor (H)
Losses: New Orleans (M), Michigan (M), Notre Dame (M), Kansas (A), Arizona (M)
AP Ranking: N/A
BYU KenPom: 11
NET Rank: 9
Record: 15-1
AP Rank: 11
KenPom prediction: BYU 83, TCU 70 — BYU 89% probability of victory
Point spread: BYU -12.5
Total points: 156.5
Presentation of the TCU
TCU is the highest-rated KenPom and NET team among BYU’s top four Big 12 opponents. After a surprise loss to New Orleans in the season opener, TCU looks like an NCAA tournament caliber team. They had big wins over Florida, Wisconsin and Baylor, almost beat Michigan early in the season, and beat Kansas on the road until a huge collapse at the end of regulation caused them to lose the game in overtime.
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TCU’s strength on its team is defense. They turn over opponents on 20.6% of possessions (No. 27 nationally), rebound the ball well and, surprisingly, are good at blocking shots even though they don’t have a high front line.
Offensively, TCU is a balanced team that plays 8-9 guys that they will involve in the offense. They will push the tempo at times and do a good job sharing the ball. Their shooting percentages are average and they turn the ball over on 16% of possessions, compared to 21% of their time for their defenses. Although they share the ball well, their guards are not good at breaking down a defense. Jamie Dixon is a great coach and organizes things, but they can struggle in close games when they just need one guy to get a bucket.
Players to watch
David Punch, striker — Punch took a big step forward as a sophomore and is an All-Big 12 candidate. Punch leads the Horned Frogs with 14.1 points per game, 7.8 rebounds and 2.6 blocks. Listed at 6-foot-7 and 246 pounds, Punch isn’t big but is a bruiser in the paint. He has only attempted 20 three-pointers in 16 games and does the majority of his work closer to the basket. I’m curious how BYU guards Punch – it looks like Keba, AJ, Kennard, Mihailo and Abdullah Ahmed could all gain time on him depending on lineups.
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Xavier Edmonds, striker — Edmonds is Punch’s frontcourt companion at 6-foot-8, 245 pounds. Together, they give TCU a physical frontcourt. Edmonds like Punch doesn’t pose much of a three-point threat; he shot more than one three in just four games. He’s also a physical presence inside, although their spacing decreases when he’s on the court with Punch. Edmonds is TCU’s third-leading scorer at 10.4 points per game.
Jayden Pierre, guard — Pierre is TCU’s second-leading scorer and leading guard, averaging 10.9 points per game. The 6-foot Providence transfer is shooting 42 percent from three and leads the Horned Frogs with nearly five three-point attempts per game. Pierre scored 12 points for the Friars last year in their win over BYU.
Brock Harding, guard — Harding is also listed at 6 feet and forms the starting backcourt with Pierre. Harding leads TCU with 6.2 assists per game and 2 steals. He averages 8.8 points and shoots 25% from three. Last year for Iowa, he shot 40 percent on three attempts per game.
Tanner Toolson, guard — Toolson isn’t one of TCU’s best players, but he’s a familiar face and part of the rotation off the bench. Toolson is averaging 7 points per game and shooting 33% from three.
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Prediction
TCU is very well coached and in some ways is above their talent level. They are very solid defensively and can cause mismatches offensively with some of their beef inside. David Punch presents a tough matchup for BYU and could see some success in the paint.
Ultimately, I think BYU wins at home. While I think Punch can have success against BYU’s front court, I don’t think TCU has dynamic enough guards to give BYU trouble. Utah pressured BYU’s defense with guard penetration and I don’t see TCU with enough of that. I’m curious to see how well BYU matches Abdullah Ahmed against Punch; BYU didn’t have Ahmed against the physical courts of UConn and Clemson, and he can make BYU’s difference look different with his size inside.
I’ll take BYU in a game that’s competitive but where I feel like BYU is in control.
Prediction: BYU 82, TCU 71
