It took some spectacular finishes and a few blowouts for the smoke to clear on championship weekend and clear things up for the College Football Playoff as well.
So, who is on the 12 teams? Before we get to that, let’s remember that this is a projection of how the committee will decide the area, not what it should look like.
Let’s start with the easy part. Oregon, Georgia, Boise State and Arizona State will be the four conference champions with byes. Clemson will be the No. 12 seed.
The first-round hosts are also easy to predict with a seeding combination of Penn State, Notre Dame and Texas, followed by Ohio State. Tennessee and Indiana next faced off.
Which brings us to the big question. Is SMU or Alabama the last team?
We’ve been here before with the playoffs. Trying to balance the records and the rigor of the schedule is always a challenge. And this year, it’s more difficult because the expanded field forces comparisons between teams playing in conference championship games and those sitting at home.
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The Mustangs clearly have the best losses. They lost two games against top 20 teams by a total of five points. They also lack high-end quality wins. This is something the Crimson Tide experienced with losses to Georgia, South Carolina and Missouri. They’ve also lost to two 6-6 teams, including an ugly loss to Oklahoma just two weeks ago.
Conspiracy theorists will cite the power of the SEC and Alabama’s brand as the deciding factors. How could the committee turn down the lure of the Crimson Tide against Notre Dame or Penn State?
However, this is not on their agenda. So the gamble here is that the committee is trying to protect a team that went undefeated in its Power Four league and was three spots ahead in the most recent rankings. He won’t want to set a precedent by allowing a three-loss team to jump a team that lost its last game on a 56-yard field goal on the final play.
But we’ll see. And we will all hold our breath until the announcement is made.
Notes: Legacy Pac-12 teams will fill Pac-12 spots. Some conferences may not fulfill their bowl allocation. Asterisks denote an alternative choice. Bold indicates a team that has accepted a place.
This article was originally published on USA TODAY: Bowl projections: College Football Playoff bracket down to Alabama, SMU
