Season 2024: Eliminated on September 25, 3rd in the American League East Division
Let’s take a look at the Boston Red Sox’s 2024 season, the questions the team needs to answer this winter, and the early outlook for 2025.
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Things that went well
The Red Sox were one of the surprise teams of the first half of the season, entering the All-Star break 10 games ahead of .500. The pitching staff was responsible for the initial surge, ranking fifth in baseball with a 3.63 ERA when we took a break for the Midsummer Classic. The rotation was led by the emergence of Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford, and Pitching coach Andrew Bailey has received rave reviews through baseball.
Offensively, several players are coming off excellent seasons. Rafael Devers continues to be the centerpiece of the batting order, and he’ll finish 2024 with an OPS above .850 for the fourth straight year. Jarren Duran took an exciting step forward for the second straight season, solidifying his status as a formidable plate pitcher while playing excellent defense. And after struggling in St. Louis the previous two years, Tyler O’Neill has rediscovered his status as a dangerous power hitter. His long-term durability issues continued with three stints on the injured list, but they were all brief.
Things that went wrong
The Red Sox are no longer 10 games above .500, which tells us all we need to know about their second-half results. The rotation was the main reason the team fell out of contention, with Houck, Crawford and Nick Pivetta all slumping late in the season. And the bullpen didn’t fare any better, as the relievers who pitched the most innings in the second half all posted inflated ratios.
The disappointments on the offensive side were more injury-related than performance-related. Triston Casas was expected to build on a strong second half of the 2023 season, but he was placed on injured reserve on April 27 and I didn’t come back for 3.5 monthsTrevor Story’s luck was even worse, as he only played eight games before being sent in as a backup. left shoulder surgeryBy the time he returned in September, the team’s chances of making the playoffs were slim.
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Off-season projects
While Boston hasn’t made significant progress with its win-loss record, the team has continued to accumulate key pieces for an early return to the playoffs. To that end, most of the infield positions are set for 2025. Devers will anchor the lineup from his hot corner spot, and Casas and Story will hopefully benefit from better health at first base and shortstop. Second base is the unstable position, with Enmanuel Valdez and David Hamilton as return candidates. Manager Alex Cora will also need to find a meaningful role for Ceddanne Rafaela, who split 2024 between shortstop and center field.
If Rafaela isn’t needed in the infield, he should be part of an outfield trio with Duran and Wilyer Abreu, who has emerged as a key part of the team’s future in 2024. The left-handed hitting Abreu is terrific against righties, but he’ll need to be platooned until he shows better batting skills against lefties. Masataka Yoshida will be the team’s designated hitter, but can also play left field, meaning Boston is in good shape despite O’Neill’s free-agent status.
The rotation is less stable than the lineup, and management should consider adding a starting pitcher. Houck, Crawford and Brayan Bello will fill spots in the rotation with the goal of improving their consistency next year. Cooper Criswell hasn’t seen much time with the team, but he’s pitched well enough to earn an audition as a fifth starter. Pivetta is headed to free agency, while Garrett Whitlock and Lucas Giolito are doubtful after both undergoing elbow surgery. No elite pitchers are knocking at the door, which means help must come from outside the organization.
Boston’s relief corps ranks near the bottom of the league in ERA and needs a complete rebuild, especially with reliever Kenley Jansen and pitcher Chris Martin heading to free agency. There will be no choice but to add at least two relievers, even with the return of Liam Hendriks. Tommy John Operation 2023.
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Prospects on the horizon
The Red Sox could receive more help from their farm system in 2025 than any other team in baseball, as they have a trio of elite prospects knocking on the door.
Roman Anthony headlines the group. The 20-year-old has displayed a diverse skill set throughout his minor league career, hitting with power, reaching base often and showing speed on the paths. In September, he was ranked as a Baseball America’s Top Prospect. Anthony could force his way into a crowded Boston outfield in early 2025.
Marcelo Mayer is also one of the top prospects in baseball and will likely be the Bruins’ shortstop of the future. After batting .370 in Double-A this year, he was promoted to Triple-A in early August. Unfortunately, a lumbar strain will keep him from making his debut at that level until 2025. The fourth overall pick in the 2021 draft, Mayer could be a major leaguer next summer.
Kyle Teel is the third standout prospect to reach Triple-A late this season. Boston’s first-round pick after being named ACC Player of the Year In 2023, Teel is more athletic than most catchers and should spend much of next season splitting time with Connor Wong behind the plate.
Goals for 2025
The Red Sox should have every intention of making the playoffs next year. Offensively, the pieces are in place, especially if a few top prospects can contribute for at least part of the season.
Additionally, Boston is no stranger to spending in the free-agent market, and it’s clear that the Red Sox need to add several pitchers this offseason. If they fail to bolster their pitching staff, they could finish last in the highly competitive AL East next year.
Focus on fantasy
With Devers and Duran, the Red Sox give fantasy managers two players who could be selected in the second round of the draft. Devers is one of the safest assets in fantasy, while Duran has five-tier potential that few players can match.
Casas and Abreu will be considered mid-round picks, with Casas likely drawing more attention than Abreu. After all, savvy managers will remember that Casas posted a 1.034 OPS over the second half of 2023, which is reason enough to look past his injury-plagued 2024 campaign.
Pitching decisions will be tougher. Can Houck and Crawford return to their first-half 2024 performance levels? Can Whitlock bounce back from his elbow injury? Will Bello finally take a step forward? And who will get the saves in Boston? Houck, Crawford and the new closer are expected to be mid-round picks, with Whitlock and Bello considered late-round picks.
