With the 2023 season behind us and the hot stove already lit, we take a close look at some of the hottest players on the free agent market.
Name: Blake Snell
Position: LHP
Team: San Diego Padres
Age (as of opening day 2024): 31
Statistics 2023: 14-9, 2.25 ERA, 180 IP, 1.189 WHIP, 234 K, 182 ERA+
Blake Snell joined a very exclusive club in 2023, becoming the seventh pitcher in history to win the Cy Young Award in both leagues.
Gaylord Perry. Pedro Martinez. Randy Johnson. Roger Clémens. Roy Halladay. Max Scherzer. Snell.
That’s it. This is the list.
Snell’s impressive 2023 season was enough to add him to this accomplished group. He overcame a rough start – he was 1-6 with a 5.40 ERA after his first nine outings – to post a 4 1/2 month streak of excellence. From May 25 until the end of the season, Snell went 13-3 with a 1.20 ERA in 23 starts, reaching a landslide victory in NL Cy Young voting.
It turned out to be perfect timing for Snell, who hits the free agent market for the first time as he enters his age-31 season. With a number of teams looking for a front-line starter to add to their rotation, Snell should be a popular target this winter.
POTENTIAL PRESIDENTS (listed alphabetically)
ANGELS
The Angels have been looking for a starting pitcher for several years, and as they deal with the potential loss of Shohei Ohtani – who won’t pitch in 2024 even if he returns to Anaheim – the club needs an ace to lead its team. rotation. Angels starters ranked 11th in the AL with a 4.47 ERA — and that was with Ohtani, who posted a 3.14 ERA in 132 innings. Snell would immediately become the ace of a club that sorely needs one.
DODGERS
Dodgers starters posted a 4.57 ERA in 2023, ranking ninth in NL. Clayton Kershaw is a free agent, and even if he returns, unlikely to throw until second half following shoulder surgery. Walker Buehler will return after missing all of 2023, but the Dodgers need to rebuild their rotation this offseason, which makes Snell a strong candidate.
GIANTS
The Giants already have an ace in Logan Webb, who finished second to Snell in this year’s NL Cy Young voting. But Webb was one of only two San Francisco pitchers to log more than 150 innings (Alex Cobb has thrown 151 1/3, although he will miss the start of the 2024 season following hip surgery). , while Sean Manaea (now a free agent) was the only other to appear in the top 100 images. Snell pitched 18 scoreless innings against the Giants last season, so San Francisco knows how good he can be. The same goes for new Giants manager Bob Melvin, who was Snell’s manager in San Diego for the past two years.
PADRES
With Snell, Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo on the free agent market and Nick Martinez agrees to deal with Reds, the Padres lose 91 starts and 571 innings from their 2023 roster. San Diego is expected to lose some of its payroll this offseason, but about $30 million is attached to Juan Soto, who could be traded. Snell won’t come cheap, but retaining his ace could be a big step forward for the Padres as they look to bounce back from a disappointing 2023 season.
THE REDS
Boston’s rotation ranked 12th in the AL with a 4.68 ERA, while the 774 1/3 innings pitched by its starters were the second fewest in the league. To say the Red Sox need to improve their rotation would be an understatement, but that’s part of the reason Boston brought in Craig Breslow to lead its baseball operations department. Snell would give the Red Sox an instant ace, something they have lacked since 2018.
TIGERS
With Miguel Cabrera’s nine-figure contract off the Tigers’ books, some salary space is freed up to use this offseason. Detroit may also have to suffer the loss of its ace after Eduardo Rodriguez opted out of his contract to test the free agent market. The Tigres have a history of spending – they signed Javier Báez to a big contract just two years ago, although it hasn’t worked out well so far – so if the Tigres decide to make a splash, they will do it at the top of their rotation would make sense.
SCOUT’S POINT
“Snell is the ultimate “stuff guy.” He features a faster ball and some of the best off-speed pitches in the game. He can strike out hitters with any combination of slider, curveball, and changeup, all of which have the rare ability to bring out both zone pursuits and zone misses. This season, he tied a career high in innings pitched and set his record in strikeouts. Previously considered a five-and-dive type pitcher, but this year he’s been able to make throws to get out of jams and extend deeper in games. Command is still a lingering issue, as he walks a ton of hitters. This is a concern going forward as it approaches 30 and raw materials are likely declining. After winning his second Cy Young Award, he still has one of the highest ceilings of anyone at the top of a rotation in baseball. His ability to limit damage and induced traffic will determine whether he continues to be an ace in the future.
BUYER BEWARE
Snell’s walks are certainly a concern — his 99 free passes in 180 innings last year made him the first Cy Young winner since Early Wynn in 1959 to lead his league in walks — but the Biggest red flag might be his career innings pitched. In his two Cy Young seasons, Snell pitched 180 2/3 and 180 innings, respectively. In his other five full seasons (not including the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign), Snell’s record was 129 1/3 innings.
FOR ASSEMBLY OF COMP
At the start of the 2021 season, Carlos Rodón had yet to put everything together despite his immense talent and tremendous talent. He had only surpassed the 140 inning mark once in his first five full seasons, constantly battling injuries and inconsistency on a year-to-year basis. Rodón broke out in his age-28 season in 2021, going 13-5 with a 2.37 ERA, but in just 24 starts and 132 2/3 innings. He signed a deal with the Giants after being turned down by the White Sox, pitching another strong year in 2022 (14-8, 2.88 ERA) in 31 starts and 178 innings. This platform year came at the perfect time: He signed a six-year, $162 million contract with the Yankees last offseason. Snell is a year older than Rodón as a free agent, although he is coming off a Cy Young season, which could make up for that difference.
