ORCHARD PARK – When the final gun rang out in sweltering South Florida on Sunday afternoon, Sept. 24, the Denver Broncos were the laughing stock of the NFL.
That day, their defense was torched to the tune of 70 points and 726 yards by the Miami Dolphins. The Broncos became just the fourth team in more than a century of NFL history to give up at least 70 points and the second to allow at least 700 total offensive yards.
Since then, the Broncos have taken heart, shown some pride in their work and, after losing five of their first six games, have now won two in a row, including a cathartic 24-9 win over the Chiefs on Oct. 29, which ended a 16-game losing streak against Kansas City and sent them into their bye week feeling better about the future under new coach Sean Payton.
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“Obviously, we’re a better team today than we were four or five weeks ago,” Payton said earlier this week as his team began preparations for Monday night’s game at Highmark Stadium against the Bills from Buffalo. “You can see it in many ways. We do a number of things necessary to win games that I don’t think we’ll do as well early in the season.
This debacle against Miami will distort Denver’s statistics for the rest of the season. Despite significantly improved play, the defense still ranks last in the NFL in points (28.3) and yards allowed (405.0) per game, and only four teams have given up more explosive plays than the 66 from Denver.
Learn more: What channel is the Bills game on?How to watch the Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos
However, after allowing 181 points in their first five games (36.2 per game), the Broncos gave up 45 points in their last three (15.0) – a hard-fought 19-9 loss to the Chiefs at Arrowhead , then home victories against the Packers (19-17) and the Chiefs. In those three games, Denver didn’t allow a rushing touchdown after giving up eight in its first five games, and it was the NFL’s best red zone defense, with just three touchdowns in 16 opposing trips in the 20 (Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs were 1 for 8 combined in their two matchups).
“I’m not surprised they played the way they beat the Chiefs and then watched their team come together the way they did,” Bills coach Sean McDermott said. “From the outside it looks like they are coming together defensively. They’re forcing people to score less and less points since that game (in Miami).
Here is my preview of the game:
Buffalo Bills on offense
The big topic coming out of the loss to the Bengals was the future employment of offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey. McDermott dismissed any notion that he was considering a change, but he also hinted that Dorsey needed to unlock the stagnant offense because over the last five games, the Bills have averaged 20.2 points.
Nothing comes easy for Josh Allen and one of the big problems is that he doesn’t get enough production from Stefon Diggs and Dalton Kincaid. This season, these two have been targeted a total of 142 times and have a combined 110 receptions for 1,173 yards and eight touchdowns. The other 10 players Allen threw to — including No. 2 WR Gabe Davis — were targeted a total of 165 times and caught just 122 passes for 1,250 yards and 10 touchdowns.
The lightning rod has been Davis whose week-to-week inconsistency continues to be a problem. This year, he has five games where he accumulated 35 yards or less, including zero last week in Cincinnati. That needs to change if the offense is to become dangerous again, which it hasn’t been since Miami’s 48-20 loss.
What there is to knowThe Bills are in prime time again as they take on the Broncos on Monday Night Football
And for all the talk from McDermott and Dorsey about being two-dimensional, the Bills aren’t because their running game has failed most of the year while they rank 16th in the NFL with 108 .1 yards per game. James Cook has had his moments, which is why his 4.7 average is tied for ninth, but there have been games where he hasn’t been a factor. Over his last five games, his average total yards from scrimmage (rushing and receiving) is a disappointing 61.2 yards.
Denver’s defense is clearly on the rise and features two of the league’s best DBs, All-Pros Patrick Surtain II and Justin Simmons. In the win over the Chiefs, the Broncos forced five turnovers, including Simmons making a pick and recovering a fumble. Surtain could very well travel with Diggs, and if so, this is a key matchup, especially if the Bills’ supporting cast doesn’t step up.
Buffalo Bills on defense
Russell Wilson endured a nightmare 2022 season, his first in Denver, and some believed he had become a productive NFL QB. However, now that the offensive-minded Payton has taken over, Wilson has had a nice bounce-back season. His passer rating of 101.7 is fifth in the NFL, he completes 66.1% of his passes and has 16 touchdowns against just four interceptions including just one pick over the last five games.
WR Courtland Sutton — who has been plagued by poor QB play since entering the league in 2018, including last year with Wilson — leads the Broncos with 33 catches and a career-high six touchdowns, although He only totaled 380 yards. And WR Jerry Jeudy, who is supposed to be the home run threat, is averaging just 12.4 yards on 27 catches with one touchdown. Their low yardage totals were a product of Wilson being sacked 26 times, leading the Broncos to utilize a play-action, short-passing game that featured RBs Javonte Williams, Samaje Perine and Jaleel McLaughlin combining for 51 catches.
What will be interesting in this game is the health of Buffalo’s secondary. Three starters – CB Christian Benford and safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer – are dealing with injuries and although McDermott said they are all in the everyday category, their status and/or effectiveness for the game will be in question. Additionally, LB Terrel Bernard might not play due to his concussion. Poyer returned to practice Friday, but the other three did not. A defense that may have to start Taylor Rapp and Damar Hamlin at safety and Tyrel Dodson and Dorian Williams at LB is obviously concerning.
Another key for the Broncos on offense has been relying on their ground game much more than earlier in the season, and they have had some success. In the win against the Chiefs, they rushed 40 times for 153 yards, which led to over 33 minutes of possession. Williams is the primary ball carrier and over the last three weeks, his 219 rushing yards are fourth-most by an RB, so is the Bills’ run defense – which is coming off a good game but still ranks 30th with 4 .9 yards allowed per carry – must be much better than it has been.
Bills vs. Broncos: News and Notes
▶ Since the start of the 2020 season, the Bills have the best home record in the league with a 23-5 record. In those 28 games, Allen totaled 7,062 passing yards and had 77 passing and rushing touchdowns.
▶ Diggs, who leads the NFL with 70 catches, needs 16 more to pass DeAndre Hopkins (789) for the most catches in league history under age 30. Starting with Denver, he has three games left before he turns 30 in November. 29.
▶ The Bills have three players with at least five sacks, which is tied for the NFL. Leonard Floyd has seven, and AJ Epenesa and Ed Oliver have five.
▶ Von Miller was the Broncos’ first-round pick in 2011 and he played in 142 games over his 9 1/2 seasons in Denver (he missed all of 2020), recording 110.5 sacks before to be traded to the Rams in the middle of 2021. This will be his first time playing against the Broncos, meaning he will have played against all 32 teams.
▶ Simmons, a three-time All-Pro, has 29 interceptions since his rookie 2016 season, tied for first in the NFL during that span with Miami’s Xavien Howard.
▶ Wilson is the first quarterback in NFL history to accumulate at least 40,000 passing yards and 5,000 rushing yards in his career, most of them during his time in Seattle.
▶ Since entering the NFL in 2012, Wilson’s 41 game-winning drives lead the NFL. One of them came in Week 7 against the Packers.
▶ The Broncos have been a fast-starting team this season as they scored on six game-opening drives (five touchdowns and a field goal). Their 37 first drive points are second behind the 49ers (38). The Bills scored on four of the first nine drives, with just two touchdowns and 20 total points. The Bills were actually outscored 52-44 in the first quarter.
▶ Buffalo’s last five games have all been decided by six points or fewer, the longest active such streak in the NFL. It’s also the first time the Bills have had five straight games decided by fewer than seven points.
Sal’s prediction: Bills 23, Broncos 16
Again, it all depends on when you’re playing as a team, right? And right now, with all of Buffalo’s injuries on defense, its offense not performing up to its capabilities, and the Broncos’ recent resurgence after their disastrous start to the season when they looked like one of the worst teams than we’ve ever seen, the game suddenly looks a lot more competitive than it would have at the start of the year.
Given how tough the schedule is, if the Bills hope to remain viable in the AFC playoffs, they can’t lose this game. Buffalo is still the superior team and playing at home, and while this won’t be a layup, the Bills should figure out their situation and get the job done on another night where the sellout crowd may have to stay until in the very last match. END.
- Mon. September. 11, Jets 22, Bills 16 (OT)
- Sunday September 17 Bills 38, Raiders 10
- Sun. September 24 Bills 37, Commanders 3
- Sun. October 1st Bills 48, Dolphins 20
- Sun. October 8 Jaguars 25, bills 20
- Sun. October 15 Bills 14, Giants 9
- Sun. October 22 Patriots 29, Bills 25
- THURSDAY. October 26 Bills 24, Buccaneers 18
- Sun. November 5 Bengals 24, Bills 18
- Mon. November 13 vs. Broncos, 8:15 p.m.
- Sun. November 19, against Jets, 4:25 p.m.
- Sun. November 26, at the Eagles, 4:25 p.m.
- Sun. December 3, week off
- Sun. December 10, at Chiefs, 4:25 p.m.
- Sun. December 17, against Cowboys, 4:25 p.m.
- Sat. December 23, at the Chargers, 8 p.m.
- Sun. December 31, against the Patriots, 1 p.m.
- Sun. January 7, at Dolphins, to be determined
Sal Maiorana can be contacted at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana and on Threads @salmaiorana1. To subscribe to Sal’s newsletter, Bills Blast, which comes out twice a week during the season, please follow this link:https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast
