Thursday, when Simms and I recorded the Weekly Picks PodcastThe Bills were 1.5-point favorites for Sunday’s wild-card game in Jacksonville.
The line moved up three points on DraftKings, with the Jaguars currently a 1.5-point favorite.
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This change recognizes the fact that the Jaguars are the more accomplished team this season, with the better record and higher seed. And that suggests that the sharpies are coming forward and betting for the Jaguars, ignoring the whole “smaller market” issue and recognizing that the Jags are a legitimate contender.
They’re also at home, which is important considering the Bills’ experience in road playoff games. The Bills have lost eight straight playoff games away from Orchard Park. Their last playoff road victory came in the 1992 AFC Championship.
Additionally, Bills quarterback Josh Allen is 0-4 on the road in the playoffs. Three defeats came in Kansas City. The other occurred in Houston, during a wild-card match in 2019.
On Sunday, Allen has a chance to win a road playoff game in a postseason field that doesn’t include Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow or Lamar Jackson. Previously, the betting public narrowly believed Buffalo could pull it off. Since Saturday evening, the feeling has reversed.
