BLOOMINGTON – Nothing happens here.
That’s how one esteemed voter at this year’s media preseason Big Ten men’s basketball the poll led to their vote this fall. And for good reason.
Grown to 18 teams and filled with intriguing transfers and freshmen, I can’t remember a time when the conference was so difficult to predict. The calendar has never been so unbalanced. We have no idea what effects the trip will have, or how the styles might lead to battles with four Pac-12 teams at the gate.
It’s going to be a wild and crazy Big Ten basketball season. And I suspect we wouldn’t have it any other way.
This year, I had the honor of being asked by Adam Jardy of the Columbus Dispatch to help administer our annual media survey. The Big Ten writers have been working together since the conference itself went on hiatus a few years ago, and we’re still there, no matter the crowd size.
We typically aim for two voters per school (per beat, actually), but the sheer size of the conference made that a little trickier this year. We managed to get at least one out of the 18 teams and finished with 33 participants out of a possible 36. The vote is officially bi-coastal.
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Analyzing this year’s ballot (which includes projected order of finish, player, freshman and transfer of the year, plus two all-conference teams) hasn’t been a task easy. The transfer portal introduced a remarkable sense of the unknown into the discussion, an uncertainty that was only intensified by a deeply lopsided schedule. Eight players received at least one vote for Transfer of the Year, while only three of the five players who received at least one vote for Player of the Year competed in the Big Ten last season.
All of this culminates in a journalist’s plea: We’re going to get some of it wrong. Please don’t blame us.
The final results of our poll are as follows, with two-time defending champion Purdue in the lead. In the interest of transparency, my ballot is lower than the final results, with some methodology included.
Nothing is wrong here:
Projected 2024-25 Big Ten Basketball Rankings
(first place votes in parentheses):
1. Purdue, 572(20)
2. Indiana, 549 (7)
3. UCLA, 510 (2)
4.Illinois, 458(2)
5. State of Michigan, 448 (1)
6. Oregon, 412
7. Rutgers, 391
8. State of Ohio, 369 (1)
9.Michigan, 342
10. Maryland, 263.
11. Iowa, 249
T-12 Wisconsin, 212
T-12 Nebraska, 212
14. U.S.C., 196
15.Washington, 158.
16. Northwest, 153
17. State of Pennsylvania, 87 years old
18. Minnesota, 62
Big Ten Preseason Player of the Year
Brad SmithPurdue (27).
Also receiving votes: Oumar Ballo, Indiana, Ace Bailey, Rutgers (2); Kobe Johnson, UCLA (1), Payton Sandfort, Iowa (1).
Big Ten Freshman of the Year
Dylan Harper, Rutgers (19.5).
Also receiving votes: Ace Bailey, Rutgers (12.5); Kasparas Jakucionis, Illinois (1).
Big Ten Transfer of the Year
Oumar BalloIndiana (17).
Also receiving votes: Great Osobor, Washington, Myles RiceIndiana (4); Vlad Goldin, Michigan (3); Kylan Boswell, Ill., (2); Tyler Bilodeau, UCLA, Ja’Kobe Gillespie, Maryland, Saint Thomas, USC (1).
First-team preseason All-Big Ten team
Braden Smith, Purdue (64)
Payton Sandford, IA (48)
Oumar Ballo, Indiana (47)
Bruce Thornton, Ohio State (34)
Dylan Harper, Rutgers (32)
Second-team preseason All-Big Ten team
Jackson Shelstad, Oregon (30)
Ace Baldwin Jr., Penn State (26)
Greater Osobor, Washington (26)
Ace Bailey, Rutgers (25)
Dawson Garcia, Minnesota (23)
Also receiving votes: Brooks Barnhizer, Northwestern, Malik Reneau, Indiana (19); Mackenzie Mgbako and Myles Rice, Indiana (13); Kasparas Jakucionis, Ill. (12); Vlad Goldin, Michigan (11); Desmond Claude, USC, Julian Reese, Maryland (7); Dylan Andrews, UCLA (6); Brice Williams, Nebraska (5); Jaden Akins, Michigan State, Kylan Boswell, Illinois (4); Xavier Booker, Michigan State, Kobe Johnson, UCLA (3); Tyler Bilodeau, UCLA, Frankie Fidler, Michigan State, Owen Freeman, Iowa, Ja’Kobe Gillespie, Maryland, Trey Kaufman-Renn, Purdue, Saint Thomas, USC (2); Meechie Johnson, Ohio State, Fletcher Loyer, Purdue, Sebastian Mack, UCLA (1).
Zach Osterman’s Big Ten preseason poll
Deep breathing.
I’ve been voting in this poll for about a decade now. This was the most difficult election I have ever organized. There are so many considerations that are difficult to compare to each other. With this in mind, a few remarks:
∎ I relied heavily on Projections from Bart Torvik’s preseason conferencenot just team rankings, but also projected strength of schedule. Obviously these numbers will be refined with time and games once the season starts, but I used them as a starting point.
∎ As a general rule, I have never voted for freshmen in preseason polls in categories that were not freshmen-specific.
It’s not hard for me to see freshmen (Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey among them) breaking into all-conference teams in the postseason. But unlike returns and transfers, there is no evidence yet to compare them to the rest of the league.
And while you’re free to disagree with that, I want to point out that no freshman has ever won Big Ten Player of the Year. In fact, in the last 20 years, only eight freshmen have been voted to the All-Big Ten first team (Greg Oden, Mike Conley, Robbie Hummel, Eric Gordon, Jared Sullinger, Melo Trimble, D’Angelo Russell , Hunter Dickinson) or by the media Or the coaches. This is not a league that is forgiving of first-year players.
∎ I tended to peg the west coast teams to a location or two for the sake of travel. I love Oregon this year. UCLA could also be very good. Washington has a coach I respect and USC is a big unknown. Until we see these teams learn to cover all the miles and time changes, it seemed prudent to consider this an important factor.
With all that in mind, here is my ballot, with some annotations under each category:
Expected order of arrival
1. Purdue
2.Illinois
3. Indiana
4. Michigan State
5.UCLA
6. Oregon
7. Rutgers
8. Wisconsin
9. Ohio State
10.Michigan
11. Northwest
12. Nebraska
13.USC
14.Washington
15. Iowa
16. Maryland
17. Pennsylvania State
18. Minnesota
Purdue got a lot of our votes because of what he reported and, I guess, respect for what he accomplished over the last two years. Indiana was its closest competitor at the top. I like the Hoosiers, as you’ll see from their representation in my player votes, but the schedule bothers me. This run of seven out of 11 away games, with some very tricky travel included, looks like a daunting hill to climb to get 14-15 wins, which I think will be necessary to win the league.
Outside of the top four, I think potential title contenders include Oregon, Rutgers and perhaps Michigan. They’ll have to navigate, in order, demanding travel, a big first-year learning curve and a first-year coaching adjustment to the league to get into that mix.
Player of the Year: Braden Smith, Purdue
First year student: Dylan Harper, Rutgers
Transfer of the year: Myles Rice, Indiana
No real surprises from Smith, who dominated our POY vote. Ace Bailey may be the best prospect in the NBA, but I picked Harper for Rookie of the Year because he seems likely to be more involved in more success, as a point guard. Ballo won transfer of the year, a nod, I suppose, to his consistent and proven production at a big-time program before transferring to IU. But for now, I’ll take Mike Woodson at his word on playing smaller and faster, which means Rice will feature prominently.
Plus, if you look list by list, it suddenly looks like a point guard league in 2024-25. It’s beautiful.
First Team All-Big Ten
Braden Smith, Purdue
Myles Rice, Indiana
Ace Baldwin, Penn State
Payton Sandfort, IA
Brooks Barnhizer, Northwest
I may be driving it at this point, but I invite you to join me on the Brooks Barnhizer hype train. All the guy does is fill out stat sheets, and Northwestern will be asking more of him with Boo Buie gone.
Second Team All-Big Ten
Jackson Shelstad, Oregon
Bruce Thornton, Ohio State
Dawson Garcia, Minnesota
Malik Reneau, Indiana
Oumar Ballo, Indiana
Shelstad might top the list of players from former Pac-12 schools that Big Ten fans should know about first, because he’s good and he’s a big reason why Oregon might be, too. Thornton will be the key to surprisingly high expectations for Ohio State. I wasn’t sure about Garcia here, given how much Minnesota has lost, but out of respect for his considerable career production, he made the list.
So there you go. A lot of things are probably going to look ridiculous in March, and I’ll wear it when it does. This is life in a league that is harder to pin down and predict than it has been in years, if ever.
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This article was originally published on the Indianapolis Star: 2024-25 Big Ten Basketball Preseason Media Poll, All-Big 10 Teams
