Just when I felt like three months was enough time to get a handle on the situation. college basketball seasonthe penultimate month ends up shifting him to just before the madness begins.
As world-class athletes from Milan and Cortina took the spotlight 2026 Winter Olympicscollege basketball has progressed and a lot has happened. From end-of-season bursts lead to confusing stumblesthere was everything. Even though February is the shortest month of the year, there was enough time for the seasons to change before the all-important month of March.
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Selection Sunday is less than three weeks away. Here are the biggest changes in college basketball that happened while I was halfway around the world in northern Italy.
Dad funnier? Make no mistake, Indiana is a football school. It’s not even close
Are #1 seeds locked?
No spots are assured until the bracket is revealed, but it’s safe to say that three of the No. 1 seeds are favored.
DukeMichigan and Arizona separated as top title contenders with eye-popping resumes. These are the only three teams with at least 10 wins in Quad 1. They are the only teams in the Power Conference with fewer than three losses.
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The Blue Devils and Wolverines just played a thrilling game that Duke won, and a rematch could be in store at the Final Four.
A rehearsal in Florida?
Florida Gators guard Isaiah Brown (20) reacts during the second half against the Mississippi Rebels at Sandy and John Black Pavilion at Ole Miss.
When Florida won the title in 2006, it followed that up with a championship repeat. A perfect start to February has the Gators thinking deja vu is in store.
The Gators are 6-0 this month and have won 12 of their last 13 games to move to the top of the standings. SECONDforgetting a fragile start to the season. Not only do they win, but they do it in dominant fashion. On a seven-game winning streak – with four wins in Quad 1 – they won by an average of 21.6 points, with an offense truly thriving.
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It’s taken a while, but Florida looks exactly like many expected it to before the season, and once again, it doesn’t look like a team you want to play in the tournament.
SEC Strangeness
Florida is a proven contender, but all the other members of the SEC make it difficult to determine if they belong. One moment they’re on a winning streak, the next the losses just keep piling up.
Alabama used a six-game winning streak to move into second place, with Arkansas and Tennessee close behind. Then there’s Texas A&M, a contender before a four-game skid knocked it out of the picture. Texas started to win its way into the tournament, Vanderbilt’s early magic wore off and Kentucky continues to flip-flop. It’s become a mystery and not worth trying to figure out.
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St. John’s is here for good
The magic of the concrete jungle is back with St. John’s atop the Big East with a 13-game winning streak, including a Feb. 6 victory over Connecticut. That winning streak was snapped on Wednesday – by UConn, but the Red Storm are still formidable.
The defense has really stepped up, capturing its identity after that was a major concern early in the season.
This resurgence completely changed the outlook for where St. John’s might take in the tournament. At the start of the month, it was a No. 5 seed with an outside chance of being in the top 16 overall. Now, the Red Storm have cemented themselves as a top-four seed and are making a case for being able to play close to home, without leaving the Northeast.
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What happened to BYU?
In late January, Brigham Young was in discussion for a top-three seed in what was shaping up to be the best season in Cougars history. Now it seems like it might end with “what if?”
After a 17-2 start, BYU has gone 3-5, losing to elite Big 12 teams, calling into question whether the Cougars can compete among the top title contenders. A well-deserved win over Iowa State on February 21 was followed by a UCF home win. A tough stretch for the Cougars dropped them to a projected sixth place.
AJ Dybantsa can do it all, but he needs help, and a lot more fell on his shoulders when Richie Saunders was lost for the season. With a tougher draw on the horizon, BYU will have to work harder to complete its dream campaign.
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Injuries
Speaking of injuries, they really hit some tournament prospects, drastically changing the team’s outlook. Saunders is a major player at BYU, as is JT Toppin, out for the seasonseriously damaging Texas Tech’s legitimate title hopes.
North Carolina has felt the effect of Injury to star freshman Caleb Wilsonand Kansas continues to navigating the conundrum of Darryn Peterson. All injuries have an impact on the CV, but given the high profile ones, how much weight will they carry with the selection committee in terms of ranking?
Support changes
Several teams have seen their projected seed lines change over the past four weeks, for both good and bad.
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Florida and St. John’s are leading the positive movement, along with Purdue. UCF, NC State, Texas and Miami have worked to feel more comfortable with their tournament hopes while TCU and Santa Clara have put themselves in the conversation.
In contrast, Clemson, SMU, Georgia, Auburn and Indiana are heading in the wrong direction.
How the bubble changed
Miami is close to the tournament with a 5-1 mark, the only blemish being a close loss to Virginia. TCU and Santa Clara join the group, picking up speed to be in the “bottom four” in the territory. Not quite in the field, but now in the conversation are VCU and California, which are gaining momentum.
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Then there are those who fall quickly. It starts with Southern California and San Diego State, each losing slips that took them out of the projected range. Teams on the fringes like Seton Hall, Missouri and Virginia Tech are starting to see their hopes fade due to inconsistent play.
This is not the time to have hot and cold streaks. It’s hot, or watch your NCAA tournament hopes fizzle out.
This article was originally published on USA TODAY: March Madness outlook completely changed in frenzied February
