With three straight losses to Southeastern Conference opponents, the Arkansas basketball team is sitting on thin ice in making the 2025 NCAA Tournament, according to Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology on Tuesday.
Lunardi, one of college basketball’s best-known bracketologists who frequently updates his field of 68 throughout the regular season, now considers Arkansas his “first eliminated team” from the tournament.
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“It was only a matter of time before the quality of this year’s SEC eroded the NCAA’s projected bid numbers,” Lunardi wrote. “Since someone has to lose every time one SEC team plays another, the league’s bubble teams live a game-to-game existence. A week ago, Arkansas and Vanderbilt were on the right side of the overall cut line Now, due to their combined 1-5 conference record, the two would host an NIT game if it were in mid-March instead of mid-January.
Bart Torvik, a premier analytical databasealso gives the Razorbacks just a 25.4% chance of making the playoffs in March.
The three teams just behind Arkansas in Lunardi’s “First Four Out” category are Arizona State, Indiana and Vanderbilt, with Texas, Cincinnati, SMU and Villanova making up the “Next Four Out.” Ahead of the Hogs in the “Last Four In” are New Mexico, Iowa, Dayton and Creighton.
According to Lunardi, 11 SEC teams are expected to make the NCAA tournament in Auburn, Alabama, Florida, Tennessee, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Georgia, Missouri and Oklahoma.
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Arkansas faces a seemingly must-win storyline at 8 p.m. CT Tuesday night against the LSU Tigers (11-5, 0-3 SEC), who also aren’t in Lunardi’s latest projection. If you lose this game, the odds may be too insurmountable for John Calipari’s Razorbacks.
