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Home»Nascar»Analysis: The 14 minutes that changed the 2024 Cup Series playoffs
Nascar

Analysis: The 14 minutes that changed the 2024 Cup Series playoffs

Les GrossmanBy Les GrossmanOctober 29, 2024No Comments7 Mins Read
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In the most crucial moment of the season, the eight drivers battling for the NASCAR Cup Series championship rose to the occasion Sunday at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

Six of the eight playoff contenders combined to lead 250 of the 267 laps in Sunday’s Straight Talk Wireless 400, the intermediate race of the Round of 16. A record 97 of these home runs were led by race winner Tyler Reddick. Ryan Blaney (47) and Chase Elliott (81) entered must-win positions and together led nearly 48 percent of all laps in Sunday’s 400-miler.

But in the end, the entire 2024 Cup Series playoff prospects were upended in the span of 14 straight minutes late in the afternoon just outside South Beach. From Reddick’s final pit stop to the race’s final restart, see how the playoff picture changed so quickly at Homestead-Miami:

MORE: Race results | Current Cup standings

All times are Eastern.

5:31 p.m.

After exhausting his fuel supply to the end, Tyler Reddick took the pit lead with 15 laps remaining to conclude Lap 252. The No. 45 23XI Racing Toyota was fifth, about 3.5 seconds behind Ryan Blaney , then leader, when the final round of green flag pit stops began with 50 laps remaining. Crew chief Billy Scott determined that staying away would be the team’s best chance to get ahead of the other playoff drivers ahead of them and achieve the ultimate victory.

“Dude, the bed is made here,” Scott radioed to Reddick. “The only chance is to get a yellow somewhere between here and when we run out of gas.”

WATCH: Scott explains doing “something different”

That warning didn’t come before Reddick’s fuel ran low and required a trip to pit lane with 15 things to do. Coming off pit road, Reddick rejoined the track just behind runner-up Kyle Larson, but passed Larson and Blaney in Turn 4 to stay on the lead lap.

Playoff impact: With 15 laps to go and four fresh tires, Reddick needed one last caution – and a quick one – or the No. 45 team would have been well below the elimination line heading to Martinsville Speedway.

5:33 p.m.

Use critical caution. In a fierce battle for the lead on Lap 255, Larson charged on three points through the middle of Blaney and Austin Dillon’s car entering Turn 3. Larson’s lunge disrupted the handling of his No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet and sends him on a long slide in Turns 3 and 4. The 2021 Cup champion ultimately lost just one position to Denny Hamlin in the process, but a yellow flag in the closing stages means a late restart of the race is imminent.

Playoff impact: Either Blaney or Larson seemed destined to lock themselves into Championship 4 with a win if the warning hadn’t come out. At the time of the warning, Larson was three points above the elimination line. Instead, the yellow saves Reddick, who maintains his lead position in the lap and can capitalize on those who have to stop again under the caution.

MORE: Larson battles Homestead obstacles

5:36 p.m.

The last pit stops of the day prove crucial. Ryan Blaney maintains the lead out of the pits and Hamlin secures second place. Chase Elliott moves up three spots to third ahead of Alex Bowman (up four spots), William Byron (even), Christopher Bell (lost two), AJ Allmendinger (even), Carson Hocevar (up two), Kyle Larson (lost six) and Chase Briscoe (won three). Larson rejoined the leaders and restarted in the top 10, but lost several spots as the team had to repair the diffuser flap under the rear of the car after it deployed mid-spin.

Because he just stopped before the yellow flag, Reddick remains on track to inherit the lead with only two green flag laps on his tires. Reddick chooses the top lane for the restart, with Blaney choosing the front row alongside him. Hamlin, Bowman, Bell and Hocevar line up behind Reddick; Elliott, Byron, Allmendinger and Larson behind Blaney.

Playoff impact: Reddick is suddenly pushed into the catbird seat and will control the restart after running 25th before the yellow. If Reddick had been the first car on a lap to receive the free pass, he would have had to start from the back instead. Blaney, Hamlin and Elliott are now on equal footing with the goal of getting rid of Reddick quickly after the restart.

Ryan Blaney makes a pit stop during a NASCAR Cup Series race at Homestead.Ryan Blaney makes a pit stop during a NASCAR Cup Series race at Homestead.

Ryan Blaney makes a pit stop during a NASCAR Cup Series race at Homestead.

5:41 p.m.

The green flag flies on lap 261 to start the remaining seven laps. Blaney appeared to stumble on the restart, allowing Elliott to put Blaney within three points for second with Hamlin up high. In Turns 1 and 2, Hamlin tears up the high line and momentarily goes four-up with Reddick, Blaney and Elliott to take the lead down the stretch.

Despite the movement from the front, Blaney returned to second place on the back straight while Elliott placed third. Six times from the end, Blaney returned to Hamlin’s left, trying to regain the lead, but in vain. Reddick, however, uses the high line of Turn 2 to clear Elliott for third. Further on, Larson disappears from the top 10.

Playoff impact: Hamlin’s 22-race winless streak finally has an end in sight. After a frustrating mid-season season, Hamlin now leads into the latter stages with a chance to lock his name in the Championship 4 bracket for the first time since 2021. Blaney, Reddick and Elliott all find themselves below the elimination line so that Hamlin leads.

5:44 p.m.

With two laps remaining, Blaney uses a huge launch on the high side of Turn 2 to storm Hamlin’s left to the rear immediately. The No. 12 Team Penske Ford enters Turn 3 using the center groove and drifts high to defend against Hamlin on the exit, leading to the white flag.

Playoff impact: The reigning NASCAR Cup Series champion now has his chance to return to Championship 4 with 1.5 miles to go. With Blaney ahead, Hamlin second and Reddick third, Hamlin falls 17 points below the elimination line with Reddick 18 points.

5:45 p.m.

White flag. Last round. Reddick dives at the bottom of Turns 1 and 2 and passes Hamlin, co-owner of the team Reddick is racing for. The three leaders take separate lines in the first set of turns – Blaney in the middle, Hamlin on top and Reddick on the bottom. Reddick’s explosion toward the low line propels him past Hamlin, heading toward the backstretch.

There remains a series of corners. Blaney goes for the middle again, just like he did in the previous round on Hamlin. But this time, Reddick enters the high line turn with a lot more speed. Despite two extra laps on his tires, Reddick found just enough grip around the wall to pass Blaney. The checkered flag flies. Reddick is the winner ahead of Blaney, Hamlin, Bell and Elliott.

WATCH: See an incredible final ride | Blaney: ‘I won’t be sad about it’

Playoff impact: Tyler Reddick earns his sixth victory in two seasons for 23XI Racing and his first career Championship 4 finish. Despite top-five finishes for each, Hamlin, Blaney and Elliott leave Homestead below the elimination line. Hamlin is up 18 points, Blaney down 38 points and Elliott 43. Larson ultimately finishes 13th – at least 11 spots lower than he sat 12 minutes before. Instead of leaving three points above the elimination line, Larson leaves seven points below heading to Martinsville. With Reddick and Las Vegas winner Joey Logano locked in Championship 4, Sunday’s fourth-place Bell is 29 points ahead, while sixth-place William Byron is seven points above.

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Les Grossman

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