At the very least, Howell earned the right to be considered the Commanders quarterback of the present, and to some fans, anyone who thought differently was just a hater. And yet, an analysis of objective metrics after seven games reveals a disturbing reality: Even for a franchise that has cycled through one quarterback after another over two mostly miserable decades, Howell is off to one of the worst starts of any quarterback in the franchise. Washington during this period. .
With Howell at center, Washington’s passing offense scores about five fewer points per game than would be expected based on each player’s downfield, yardage and field position. decline, according to TruMedia data. It was the second-worst performance by a Washington starting quarterback through the first seven weeks of a season since 2002, behind the late Dwayne Haskins’ 2020 campaign. Howell ranks 25th in expected points added (or in this case, subtracted) per game among qualifying quarterbacks in 2023.
It’s easy to see how we got here if we use the analyst Adam Harstad metaphor for the quarterback position being a stool with three analytical legs: yards per attempt, interception percentage and sack percentage. Harstad argues that passing pressure forces a quarterback to compromise on all three of those legs. In his words, you can either sacrifice yards per attempt by checking (passing the ball to safer targets to gain extra yards and reduce the chance of turnovers) or by throwing it out of bounds; sacrificing steal percentage by forcing the ball into tight coverage; or sacrifice sack percentage by holding the ball too long. Howell, however, doesn’t rank well in any of those categories, which means his stool isn’t unbalanced — he just has three short feet.
TruMedia estimates that Howell’s sacks cost Washington more than eight points per game, the worst figure among all starting quarterbacks in the NFL this season. He’s in the rhythm break NFL record for sacks by a quarterback in a season. (David Carr was sacked 76 times in 2002; Howell was sacked 40 times in seven games.) How much of that responsibility falls to Howell is, of course, a matter of heated debate, although Pro Playing Charters Football Focus award 15 sacks on Howell creating his own pressure16 at the offensive line and nine at other things like coverage sacks or early pressure causing cleaning bag.
At the very least, Howell and the offensive line share the blame, although it should be noted that Howell’s sack problem is not isolated to the professional level. My colleague Sam Fortier looked at Howell’s firing rate and found it was a problem for him in collegealso, while ESPN analytics editor Seth Walder pointed out Howell’s propensity for accepting dismissals. like a red flag ahead of the 2022 draft. Additionally, Pro Football Focus ranks Washington’s pass blocking unit eighth best in the NFL this season through Week 7.
Interceptions are another problem. Howell has thrown seven, tied for third in the league. Four of them arrived the 37-3 loss to the Buffalo Bills in Week 3, and the average seven lost about four expected points per game, the fifth-worst mark this season behind Daniel Jones, Jimmy Garoppolo, Mac Jones and Jalen Hurts. Howell also has 11 turnover-worthy throws (tied for fourth), a ranking from Pro Football Focus that includes fumbles in the pocket, throws ruled interceptable and actual interceptions.
Many Howell supporters note his benefits when things go well. Yet when facing no passing pressure (i.e., a clean pocket), Howell averages 7.2 yards per attempt (16th out of 32 qualified passers), with an average rating passer rating in these situations (99.2) compared to the rest of the league (98.4). However, his average time to throw a clean pocket is 2.57 seconds (he ranks just 26th fastest), perhaps reducing the efficiency of his receivers and making Washington’s offense more predictable. This could also explain why each of his top three receivers – Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel – are averaging fewer yards after the catch this season compared to last season.
Now the big question: whose fault is it? Fortunately, there are plenty to go around.
Ron Rivera gets blamed both as head coach and as the executive with final say on player personnel, which is true whether the problem is with Howell, his line, or both. Bieniemy also deserves some flack as the offensive coordinator of a team averaging 20 points per game, a below-average mark. Maybe that’s partly because he passes the ball a lot (58% of the time, second to the Minnesota Vikings). without a lot of screens or other quick passes. Howell also gets blamed for holding on to the ball too long, taking too many sacks that aren’t the offensive line’s fault, and not adjusting his QB stool to find a single advantageous approach.
Maybe that’s something he and his coaches — whether current or future staff — can fix. But it’s unclear how poorly his performance compares, even against Washington’s mediocre history of quarterbacks, and until that changes, you can’t expect the Commanders to are fighting for anything other than last place in the NFC East.
