The PGA TOUR will travel to Japan this week for only the fourth time in its history to play the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP at Narashino Country Club. The event was held at the course in 2019 but had to move to Las Vegas in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic before returning to Narashino in 2021 and 2022.
Narashino Country Club is a par 70 measuring 7,079 yards with bentgrass greens. The course has a unique design with five par 3s and three par 5s.
The ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP is a no-cut event that features 78 golfers, including 60 available PGA TOUR players from the 2022-2023 FedEx Cup points list, nine special exemptions and nine Japan Golf Tour players. 16 of the top 50 players in the Official World Golf Rankings will be in attendance, including Xander Schauffele, Cameron Young, Min Woo Lee, Keegan Bradley, Collin Morikawa, Sungjae Im, Hideki Matsuyama and Rickie Fowler.
Past winners at Narashino Country Club
- 2022: Keegan Bradley (-15)
- 2021: Hideki Matsuyama (-15)
- 2019: Tiger Woods (-19)
Let’s take a look at several key metrics at Narashino Country Club to determine which golfers are posting the best scores in each category over their last 24 rounds.
Strokes gained: approach
Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club is not a very long course. This is a positional track and finding the right spots to land the golf ball will create birdie opportunities. With the three winners on the course being Tiger Woods, Hideki Matsuyama and Keegan Bradley, it’s clear that precision with the irons will be crucial this week.
Total strokes gained: approach over the last 24 rounds:
- Sam Ryder (+24.8)
- Hideki Matsuyama (+23.2)
- Xander Schauffele (+21.4)
- Colin Morikawa (+19.9)
- Eric Cole (+18.3)
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club is a tree-lined golf course that is quite narrow from the tee. In 2019, we saw Tiger Woods win the event by keeping the ball in the fairway and tracing smartly along the golf course.
In 2021 and 2022, reaching the fairways was extremely difficult this weekend. The course cannot be controlled and good golf ball drivers should have the advantage.
However, long hitters also performed well on the course. I believe a well-rounded starting game is needed this week.
Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee in Last 24 Rounds:
- MJ Daffué (+22.1)
- Garrick Higgo (+18.0)
- Kevin Yu (+17.9)
- Tyler Duncan (+17.8)
- Min Woo Lee (+17.1)
SG: Putting (Bentgrass)
An interesting aspect of the course is its double greens. The course has two greens on each hole to allow golfers to use it all year round, as different seasons require different types of grass.
The green complexes themselves are quite tricky and good bentgrass putters should have an advantage.
SG: Putting (Bentgrass) beyond 24 turns:
- Maverick McNealy (+21.4)
- Eric Cole (+18.9)
- Dylan Wu (+18.1)
- Lower Justin (+17.7)
- Keegan Bradley (+16.7)
Strokes gained: Par 3
With five par 3s on the course, it is even more important than usual for golfers to play them effectively.
Total SG: Par 3 in the last 24 rounds:
- Eric Cole (+22.0)
- Marc Hubbard (+14.5)
- Andrew Putnam (+11.2)
- Keegan Bradley (+11.2)
- Carson Young (+9.7)
The Greens in regulation: won
Narashino Country Club can play very difficult. Hitting greens in regulation will be incredibly beneficial, and in 2021, Matsuyama has done that consistently. He won 15 strokes on the field in the category, six strokes better than the next best. Last year, Bradley gained 6.3 strokes.
Greens in regulation: won in the last 24 rounds:
- Colin Morikawa (+30.9)
- Andrew Putnam (+26.0)
- Sam Ryder (+24.3)
- Martin Laird (+23.8)
- Luke’s List (+23.7)
Statistical model
Below, I’ve presented the overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories discussed previously.
These rankings are made up of SG:APP (28%) Good drives won: (23%), Greens in regulation: won (20%), SG: Par 3 (14.5%), SG: Putting (Bentgrass) (14 .5%). .
- Colin Morikawa (+1100)
- Xander Schauffele (+700)
- Callum Tarren (+7500)
- Adam Schenk (+4500)
- Adam Svensson (+4500)
- JJ Spaun (+5000)
- Keegan Bradley (+2500)
- Hideki Matsuyama (+1800)
- Vincent Norman (+4500)
- Eric Cole (+3000)
ZOZO Championship Best Bets
Sungjae I am +2000 (FanDuel)
Sungjae Im has been in Asia in recent weeks perfecting his game. The 25-year-old avoided military service by winning a silver medal at the Asian Games a few weeks ago and followed that up with a tied 2nd place at the Genesis Championship in South Korea last week. The fact that Im has been acclimating to Asia in recent weeks should give him an advantage over the players coming from America.
Sungjae has played good golf on the Zoysia fairways throughout his career. He finished second at East Lake Golf Club which features the surface as well as 12th and 6th place finishes at TPC Southwind (St. Jude). The South Korean has also shown a fondness for Narashino CC and boasts a 3rd place here in 2019 to go along with a 29th last year.
He doesn’t quite have the pedigree of Schauffele and Morikawa who sit atop the odds board this week, but I think his chances of winning the event are comparable to double the price. He is clearly in good form at the moment and it will be a good chance for Im to pick up his first PGA Tour victory since 2021.
Adam Scott +2500 (PariRivers)
Adam Scott also fits the mold of a player who has played in Asia recently and has acclimated to the conditions. Scott competed in the Japan Open last week, shooting 73-73 and missing the cut on an incredibly difficult golf course. He took the bullet train to Tokyo last night and should be ready to go for the ZOZO Championship.
Throughout his career, the Australian has been an international golfer, winning all over the world. He has won in Qatar, Beijing, China and Singapore (by seven strokes), so he should have no problem playing well in Tokyo this week. Scott is an experienced golfer who knows how to handle a fairly difficult golf course, similar to the course’s three previous winners.
Scott did not have his best season in 2023, missing the FedEx Cup playoffs, but finished the season strong with a 7th place finish at the Wyndham Championship. He will have the chance to start his new season in style at Narashino CC.
Cameron Champion +8000 (FanDuel)
Cameron Champ is the type of player who shows form before winning. Before his most recent victory at the 2021 3M Open, he finished 11th the previous week at the John Deere Classic. Prior to his victory at the Fortinet Championship in 2019, he finished 28th the previous week at the Sanderson Farms Championship, gaining 6.8 strokes off the tee. Likewise, he gained 6.4 strokes off the tee at Fortinet in 2018 before winning the Sanderson Farms Championship the following week.
In his last two starts, Champ finished 9th and 18th, which I believe portends another victory in the near future.
TPC Summerlin is a course that generally favors precision over distance, but the 28-year-old still managed to hold on after a torrid start. Although Narashino CC was tight at the start, the Bombers performed very well on the course and the driving distance proved to be statistically significant.
Champ had some success on the course last year when he finished 8th, just four shots behind winner Keegan Bradley. He came into contention shooting four rounds in the 60s (including a Saturday 64) despite being in terrible form at the time. Cam missed the cut in all three starts before ZOZO as well as the three starts after that.
There are some elite players at the top of the betting chart this week, but at long odds, Champ has proven to be a prolific winner and someone I trust to finish strong if he ends up in the mix on Sunday.
Keita Nakajima +12o00 (FanDuel)
Keita Nakajima turned professional last October, but before that his 87 weeks in total as the world’s No. 1-ranked male amateur golfer set a record, surpassing Jon Rahm’s former 60-week cumulative reign. After Nakajima turned professional, he was replaced by Ludvig Aberg at the top of the WAGR, and we saw how quickly he became one of the best young players in the world.
Nakajima has a fantastic golfing pedigree, but he has also played excellent golf in Asia over the past few months. He has three top-8 finishes in his last four starts, as well as a win at the Yokohama Minato Championship in August.
The 23-year-old Japanese also enjoyed success at Narashino CC. He finished tied for 12th last year thanks to a ridiculous second-round 63 and finished tied for 28th in 2021 when he started as an amateur in a very strong field.
In the long run, it’s worth taking a chance on a player who could turn out to be the best Japanese golfer since Hideki Matsuyama on a course he’ll be comfortable on.
- AS20
- LEGITIMATE5
- WOW3
- LOL1
- IDHT0
- FIASCO0
- OB0
- JARRET1
