Ranking Big 12 teams by NCAA national championship odds

The Big 12 is one of the best, if not the best, basketball conferences in America this year. Eight teams participated in the NCAA tournamentwith five landing on line 5 or better. It’s deep, loaded and as good as any league in the country, but can it actually produce a national champion this season?

The last time the Big 12 cut down the nets was in 2022, when Kansas won it all, and Baylor before that in 2021. Since then, UConn has returned back-to-back in 2023 and 2024, with Florida as the defending champions. So now the question is simple. Can the Big 12 return to the top in 2026?

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Here’s how the conference is shaping up as March approaches, ranked by who has the best chance of winning it all.

UCF and TCU are not included due to their extreme odds for longshot title.

BYU has one of the best players in the entire tournament among three future NBA picks in AJ Dybantsa. The freshman from Massachusetts took on a big NIL contract to come to Provo, and it paid off. He led the nation in scoring, and without a tough injury around him, BYU would likely be ranked much higher.

Losing senior guard Richie Saunders in February to a season-ending torn ACL changed everything. The Cougars lost four of their final six regular season games, and Dybantsa’s volume and efficiency both took a hit in the absence of that secondary presence.

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Yet star power is real. Dybantsa has the kind of talent that can take over games and carry a team for extended periods in March. The question is how far this can reasonably go. BYU opens against Texas or NC State as an 11 seed, with a likely matchup against Gonzaga after that.

A title race seems more like a long-term project than a real expectation, but when you have a player like that, you at least give yourself a chance. Until proven otherwise, Cougars fans can keep dreaming.

5. Texas Tech Red Raiders (5 seed)

Another Big 12 contender was hit at the worst time by the injury bug. Texas Tech was rolling before losing last year’s Big 12 Player of the Year, JT Toppin, to a torn ACL a month ago. He was the engine of this team, leading them in both scoring and rebounding with nearly 22 points and 10.8 rebounds per night. This type of production is almost impossible to replace, especially in March.

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That said, this is not a team without talent. Second-year guard Christian Anderson, a top-20 NBA pick, is more than capable of taking on a bigger role and helping stabilize things. However, the recent trend is not encouraging. The Red Raiders haven’t won a game since Feb. 28, when they knocked off Iowa State, and they’ve clearly lost some momentum heading into the tournament.

There was a lot of talk about 12th-seeded Akron pulling the upset. That might be a little aggressive, but it speaks to the uncertainty surrounding this team right now. Without Toppin anchoring everything, Texas Tech feels like a team with a capped ceiling and a shorter path than just a few weeks ago.

4. Kansas Jayhawks (4 seeds)

What version of Kansas will we get in March? That’s the big question, and no one really seems to have the answer. Darryn Peterson might be the biggest wild card in the entire tournament. The five-star freshman and likely No. 1 pick in this summer’s NBA draft has all the talent in the world, but the results have been mixed. Kansas is actually better record-wise when he’s not playing, going 12-7 with him and 10-2 without him.

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It just never completely clicked for Lawrence this season with Peterson in the lineup. However, the talent is obvious. He averaged 20 points in 21 games and can take over at any time. The question is whether he can do it in the flow of the team, or whether it becomes meaningless production that doesn’t translate into wins. Bill Self will need him to buy in and play within the system if Kansas wants to make a real run.

The draw didn’t do them any favors either. The Jayhawks landed in a loaded East region with Duke, St. John’s, Michigan State and UConn, making the path even tougher.

If everything works, Kansas can beat anyone on the field. We just haven’t seen enough consistency or cohesion this season to fully believe that this will happen over a full tournament.

3. Iowa State Cyclones (2 seeds)

Iowa State checks just about all the boxes you’re looking for in a national title contender. They have an elite defense, high-level shooting, veteran leadership and plenty of scoring options. This is not a team anyone wants to see in March.

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They’re led in part by one of the nation’s best shooters, junior forward Milan Momcilovic, who was knocked unconscious deep down. Shooting nearly 50 percent from three on over 250 attempts is almost unheard of, and it takes this offense to another level.

Defensively, they are relentless. They make life difficult for everyone and have proven that they can beat the best teams, beating Kansas, Texas Tech and Houston during the season. That said, some concerns remain. They went 0-2 against Arizona and, as a program, showed a tendency to tighten up in big moments, especially late in games in March.

The path to the Sweet 16 looks favorable, which gives them a real opportunity to gain momentum. The question is whether they can stay calm as the pressure mounts and the moment grows.

2. Houston Cougars (2 seeds)

At some point, Kelvin Sampson has to break through and win a national title, right? Houston is there year after year. Final Four in 2021, Elite Eight in 2022, Sweet 16 in 2023 and 2024, then narrowly missed in the national title game last season, losing by two to Florida. This is about as close as you can get without finishing the job.

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This year’s group is hungry and motivated, and they have a freshman phenom in the lead. Kingston Flemings, a top 10 NBA pick, leads the team in scoring and assists and gives them a go-to presence when they need it most.

There is also a real path opening up in their favor. They open in Oklahoma City against Idaho, will likely stay close to home in the second round, and if they take care of business, the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight would be played in Houston at the Rockets’ home arena. That kind of environment could be a huge advantage if they pull it off.

This team may not have the same level of experience as last year’s runner-up, but the talent is there and Flemings is special. It’s about staying calm and handling pressure. With the draw they have in the South region and the potential home court boost, Houston feels like a team you need to watch closely.

Talk about checking every box. Arizona has been one of the most complete teams in the country all season, losing just two games and dominating on both ends of the floor. They rank top five offensively and top three defensively, and they have size that poses problems for almost any opponent.

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It’s the balance that really stands out. Seven players are averaging nine or more points per game, which is pretty wild and a testament to the depth and unselfishness of this team. They shoot well from three, crash the glass and have real star power throughout the roster.

If there’s a concern, it’s experience. Two of their top three scorers, Brayden Burries and Koa Peat, are freshmen. This always brings some uncertainty this time of year.

Yet this team made it through the season and landed in a favorable West region, where some of the other seeds carry bigger question marks. The talent and production are all there. It’s just a matter of whether these kids can rise to the occasion when the lights are brightest and whether Tommy Lloyd can finally get this program over the Sweet 16 hurdle.

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This article was originally published on Buffaloes Wire: 12 Big Title Chances Ranked for the 2026 NCAA Tournament