How ESPN’s Bracketology predicts the Big 12 will take place during March Madness

The Big 12 is set to wrap up its men’s basketball tournament, with the No. 2 Houston Cougars (28-5) taking on the No. 1 Arizona Coyotes (31-2) in the championship. This is a heavyweight fight between two of the best teams in the country. While the regular season game ended in a close seven-point victory for Arizona, it will certainly be a close game.

Whoever wins earns a spot in the NCAA March Madness tournament. However, with ESPN’s Bracketology, there is reason to believe there will be multiple Big 12 teams in the tournament. In fact, the Big 12 is projected to move up eight spots in the dance, the third-largest conference behind the SEC and Big Ten. Here’s how ESPN Bracketology predicts selections to shake.

Level 1: best seeds

The Big 12 is full of teams located in the upper quadrant of the standings. Of the eight projected teams, six are projected to be top eight seeds and four are projected to be top four seeds.

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March 4, 2026; Houston, Texas, United States; Houston Cougars guard Kingston Flemings (4) shakes hands with guard Milos Uzan (7) against the Baylor Bears in the second half at Fertitta Center. Mandatory credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

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Arizona is expected to win the tournament, so ESPN predicts they will get the No. 1 seed, while Houston will get the No. 2 seed. The Iowa State Cyclones also secure second place in the East. They would have reached the Big 12 Championship without Arizona guard Jaden Bradley hitting a buzzer-beater to knock them out.

Kansas earns fourth place in the Midwest standings after losing 69-47 to Houston in the semifinals. Behind the Jayhawks, the Texas Tech Red Raiders drop to fifth place. This was due to a highly publicized matchup against Iowa State in the quarterfinals, which ended in a 75-53 blowout. With star guard Christian Anderson injured when he slipped on the LED glass court, the Red Raiders enter March Madness hobbled.

Level 2: probable

Behind them, the BYU Cougars are projected as the No. 6 seed. With projected No. 1 pick AJ Dybantsa, they could be a sneaky team in the tournament.

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College basketball: ESPN freshman grades for 2025-26 midseason — Provo, Utah, United States; BYU Cougars forward AJ Dybantsa (3) looks on during the second half against the TCU Horned Frogs at Marriott Center. Credit: Aaron Baker-Imagn Images

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The bottom half of the bracket includes a few Big 12 teams expected to make the tournament. TCU sits as the No. 9 seed in the East, while UCF is projected to land the No. 10 seed. The Knights are one of the final four teams expected to skip the first four rounds after beating the Cincinnati Bearcats 66-65 in overtime.

Level 3: Narrowly missed

As a result, ESPN predicts the Bearcats will miss the tournament altogether. They blew a 58-50 lead with 2:17 left in regulation, only to lose in overtime. This strangulation cost head coach Wes Miller his job after five seasons at the helm.

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Iowa State Cyclones guard Dominick Nelson (11) makes a layup around Oklahoma State Cowboys forward Parsa Fallah (22) during the first half of Big-12 men's basketball Jan. 10, 2026, at Hilton Coliseum in Ames, Iowa. — Iowa State Cyclones guard Dominick Nelson (11) makes a layup around Oklahoma State Cowboys forward Parsa Fallah (22) during the first half of Big-12 men’s basketball Jan. 10, 2026, at Hilton Coliseum in Ames, Iowa.

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The rest of the teams were not mentioned at all on the bracketology. Oklahoma State seemed to be the closest of this group, going 19-14. However, a 6-12 conference record held them back, and a 95-88 loss against ended their March Madness aspirations.

Level 4: Not close

West Virginia (18-14) participated in a vote similar to that of Cincinnati. They went 9-9 in conference play, but they could have strengthened their argument with more wins in the Big 12 tournament. However, they lost to BYU 68-48 in their only game of the tournament.

Colorado (17-15), Arizona State (17-16) and Baylor (16-16) each finished with nearly .500 records, and they didn’t do enough in the tournament to shake things up. Kansas State and Utah