March Madness Bubble Watch: Pressure builds in final week of regular season

It’s time to put up or shut up for the teams on the NCAA tournament bubblelike the last week of men’s college basketball the regular season is coming.

Those who are still uncertain of reaching March madness feel the magnitude of the moment, as each outcome is accentuated before Selection Sunday. Most only have a few games left to play conference tournaments begin, and one team is already in “do or die” mode.

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Here are the teams on the bubble in the latest USA TODAY Sports Bracketologyand what awaits them as they try to secure their place in the group.

Texas A&M

• Quality wins: in Texas, in Georgia, against Kentucky

• Bad losses: in the state of Oklahoma

A team that started SEC play 7-1 is struggling with a 3-6 record in its last nine games, even though it just beat Kentucky. What really hurts Texas A&M is that they didn’t have a major win because they didn’t have a victory against a ranked foe. The Aggies don’t need to be scared about their prospects, but they need to beat LSU (March 7) and win an SEC Tournament game to feel comfortable.

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Auburn

• Projected seed: No. 11 (top four)

• Quality wins: vs. St John’s (neutral), vs. Arkansas, Florida

• Bad losses: against Mississippi, in the state of Mississippi

The most polarizing team in the tournament conversation, Auburn is in the field thanks to a solid NET ranking and some major wins, even though it doesn’t have a March Madness contender’s record. Expected to be in the peloton, the Tigers cannot afford more defeats to slip into the group. Whatever happens, they will be a major talking point.

Saint Clare

• Projected seed: No. 11 (top four)

• Quality wins: against Saint Mary’s

• Bad losses: vs. Loyola Chicago (neutral), vs. Arizona State (neutral)

The Broncos finished the regular season in third place in the West Coast Conference. Despite suffering the dreaded Quad 4 loss, Santa Clara was able to pull out a win against co-conference champion Saint Mary’s. She won’t play until the WCC quarterfinals on March 8, and she needs to win that match to feel confident. If he can beat the Gaels to advance to the title game, that could guarantee him a spot.

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UCLA

• Projected seed: No. 11 (top four)

• Quality wins: vs. Purdue, vs. Illinois, vs. Nebraska

• Bad losses: against California (neutral), against Indiana, against Minnesota

Just as UCLA exited the bubble with a big win over Illinois, the Bruins rejoined the group with a road loss at Minnesota. Luckily, they came home for a major Nebraska massacre to push them back into comfortable territory. Now beat crosstown rival Southern California on March 7 to increase the Quad 1 record and UCLA feels good heading into the Big Ten tournament.

New Mexico

• Projected seed: No. 11 (top four)

• Quality wins: at Virginia Commonwealth, against San Diego State

• Bad losses: in New Mexico State, against Boise State

The Lobos really could have used a win at Nevada to improve the Quad 1 record, but they responded emphatically to beat San Diego State at home in what was a major bubble battle, one of the main reasons New Mexico is in the projected field. Eric Olen’s team must now beat Colorado State (March 4), and a major test awaits when they travel to Utah State (March 7), where they can clinch a share of the regular season title.

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Indiana

• Projected seed: First four eliminated

• Quality wins: against Purdue, at UCLA

• Bad losses: in Minnesota, against Northwestern

After getting off to a strong start to February, the Hoosiers collapsed with four straight losses. Yes, three of them played top 15 teams, but the home loss to Northwestern was inexcusable and really set them back. Indiana now has to win its final two games, which won’t be easy; playing against a sneaky Minnesota team (March 4), then at Ohio State (March 7) in a massive bubble game.

San Diego State

• Projected seed: First four eliminated

• Quality wins: vs. Utah State

• Bad losses: vs. Troy, vs. Grand Canyon (twice), at Colorado State

You can look at San Diego State’s recent results with the glass half full or the glass half empty. The positive is that they beat Mountain West leader Utah State and Boise State for two Quad 1 wins. The negative is that those are the Aztecs’ only wins in the last five games, with a very poor showing in the rematch against Boise State. SDSU remains in limbo and needs at least two more wins to get back into the bracket projection.

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Commonwealth of Virginia

• Projected seed: First four eliminated

• Quality wins: vs. South Florida (neutral)

• Bad losses: at George Mason

A win against Saint Louis would have been a major boost for the Rams, but they couldn’t capitalize on their second opportunity. After avenging its loss to George Mason, VCU has an excellent chance to add a Quad 1 win in the regular season finale in Dayton (March 6), although that’s far from done as it will need to put together a strong showing in the Atlantic 10 tournament.

California

• Projected seed: First four eliminated

• Quality wins: vs. UCLA (neutral), vs. North Carolina, in Miami

• Bad losses: vs. Pittsburgh, at Kansas State, at Florida State, at Syracuse

All the momentum Cal built was immediately eviscerated with a horrible double-digit Quad 3 home loss to Pittsburgh. The Golden Bears couldn’t afford that because their NET ranking is already extremely high, and they now need to win their final two games at Georgia Tech (March 4) and Wake Forest (March 7) before making much noise in the ACC Tournament to move back up on the bubble.

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This article was originally published on USA TODAY: March Madness bubble watch for final week of regular season