Despite multiple additions at the start of spring training, the San Diego Padres have taken a step back in the 2026 projections according to FanGraphs and PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus). In JanuaryThe numbers projected significant declines for several players on the team, but the lack of adding higher-level talent appears to have negatively affected how analytics view the Padres for the upcoming season.
At this point, FanGraphs projects a 79-83 record and a fourth-place finish in the NL West for the Friars. PECOTA is only slightly better at 80-82. While noting the loss of Dylan Cease, Luis Arraez, Yu Darvish and Robert Suarez, the poor projections for remaining team compared to last year reduces any possible boost their additions could give to the rankings.
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Lack of power from last season persists
The only player who should have a better season than last year is Jackson Merrill. All other position players are worse or about the same in rating their performance. Although Luis Campusano, Nick Castellanos, Sung-Mun Song and Bryce Johnson are the bench players, none of them have an fWAR above 0.8.
Miguel Andujar is Gavin Sheets’ platoon partner or DH and his fWAR is 0.6. No player in the Padre position has an fWAR higher than 5.4 (Fernando Tatis Jr.) while many are between 0.5 and 1.5. Tatis Jr. should lead the team with 30 home runs.
Misfortunes
The starting pitchers are not doing any better. Michael King would only get 161 innings with a 3.68 ERA. Nick Pivetta takes a big step back with a 3.92 ERA and Joe Musgrove gets a 3.89 ERA projection. There is no confidence in Randy Vasquez at 4.79 and Germán Márquez is the projected fifth starter with a 5.03 ERA.
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The bullpen also gets very little love with left-hander Adrian Morejon, who is widely considered one of the best relievers and was recently listed by MLB Network as one of the top 10 relievers in baseball, with a 1.1 fWAR and 3.40 ERA. Only Mason Miller gets respect with a 2.44 ERA and 2.3 fWAR.
Missing the playoffs
The Los Angeles Angels, St. Louis Cardinals, Tampa Bay Rays, Cleveland Guardians, Athletics and Cincinnati Reds are all listed as having a better chance of making the playoffs than the Padres. While the Dodgers are listed at 94% to win the division and 99% to make the playoffs, the Padres come in at 1.2% to win the division and 22.1% to make the playoffs.
The San Francisco Giants are at 37.4% to make the playoffs and the Arizona Diamondbacks are at 32% to make the playoffs. The Padres have been the benefit of the doubt for much of the offseason with multiple projections pegging them as the second or third best team in the NL West. This is no longer the case.
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The only way to get national respect for this team in 2026 was if AJ Preller agreed with the league media and traded Tatis Jr. in order to acquire a power bat and a top starter. Trading the best player in the organization doesn’t seem like a good way to improve a team that finished with 90 wins last season. Preller made it clear from the start that that wasn’t an option, and he recently said cutting the salary wasn’t a priority.
Add margins
While Preller has reloaded the team with starters returning from injury to compete for the fifth spot in the rotation, Randy Vasquez is facing a pivotal season in his career. Vasquez is out of options and must be on staff or discharged in late spring. Reports from pitching coach Ruben Niebla and manager Craig Stammen indicate that Vasquez made the effort to take this step forward and maintained the progress made at the end of last season.
The added bats, Castellanos and Andujar as 1B/DH options and Ty France as a defensive option, don’t provide the power fans were hoping for. This requires the current team to step up their game.
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Heart and character matter
None of this enters into the projections seen on FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus. They use algorithms and underlying metrics as well as aging statistics to determine their estimates. As fans who watch this team and know the character and motivation of the players, we can say that the numbers shown in these projections are devoid of the determination we know these players display.
Will the heart and character of the players play a role in helping the Padres surpass those numbers?
Xander Bogaerts and Manny Machado can’t avoid the inevitability of aging. But not all players age in the same way and there are many examples of performing well into their 30s. It’s true that neither of them will play their center position for long, but the calculations used for these numbers do not take into account the uniqueness of each player.
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Prove them wrong
If only a few players play at the same level as last season; if Tatis Jr. finds more power and Merrill stays healthy and takes another step; if Machado and Bogaerts stay relatively healthy and don’t regress as much as expected; then the offense should be fine. Regardless if Andujar and Castellano aren’t big power hitters, both are upgrades over Jason Heyward and Yuli Gurriel.
The Padres won’t have as many singles without Luis Arraez, but Tatis Jr. will have better lineup protection with Merrill (or Bogaerts?) hitting behind him. The bottom of the lineup has little power as things stand, unless Castellanos breaks out, Gavin Sheets plays above last year, or another bat is added. But all of these problems were much worse last year, and somehow this team finished three games behind the Dodgers.
Preller may not be done, there’s plenty of time for other moves and still plenty of good players looking for jobs. The trade market will be busy for a few more weeks and I don’t know if we’ve ever seen Preller go an entire offseason without a trade.
With just a little luck, maybe the Padres can surprise some people. A snake in the grass isn’t always a bad thing.
