Go back to this time last year and you’ll get the same Big Ten matchup on the hardwood as the Michigan Wolverines vs. the Purdue Boilermakers. The difference is that the roles are reversed – No. 1 Purdue came to Ann Arbor to face Dusty May’s No. 20 Michigan team.
The Wolverines earned a 75-73 victory that helped build momentum toward a possible Big Ten tournament championship. But things almost turned the other way thanks to one of college basketball’s most talented veteran players, Braden Smith.
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The Wolverines led a seemingly insurmountable 73-67 with 39 seconds left. Smith thought otherwise, hitting back-to-back three-pointers and even attempting a game-winning shot as time expired. Despite missing that final shot, Smith was spectacular with 24 points, six rebounds and seven assists.
May took the podium and had nothing but complimentary things to say about Smith.
On Tuesday night, Michigan will face the same challenge, this time with Purdue as the underdog and Smith with another year of experience under his belt. He’s even more efficient than he was a season ago, averaging 14.7 points, 8.9 assists and 4.0 rebounds per game while shooting 48.2 percent from the field and 41.5 percent from deep. He is one of the toughest players to guard in the country.
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But it’s the enabling element that makes it even more dangerous. The pick-and-roll dilemma mentioned by May a year ago remains relevant. 6-foot-9 forward Trey Kaufman-Renn and 6-foot-11 center Oscar Cluff each play as a beneficiary on the other side of Smith. It’s the same philosophy Smith has applied throughout all four years of his career, including with Zach Edey early in his career. He perfected it to the point that he broke the Big Ten career assists record in a win over Wisconsin in January.
The key to beating Purdue is picking the right poison to knock Smith out of his game. During January’s three-game skid and loss to Iowa State earlier this season, teams found ways to take different looks at the Boilermakers, with Smith slowing down at center.
The Cyclones put on an offensive clinic, shooting 54 percent and hitting 11 three-pointers en route to an 81-58 victory. That forced Smith and the Boilermakers to play fast to try to keep up, and instead recorded six turnovers in the loss.
Considering this game as an outlier, it’s interesting to see what Indiana, UCLA and Nebraska did for Purdue’s three-game skid. The common point: you need all five defenders to slow him down.
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Nebraska ran a 1-3-1 defense against Purdue that completely stymied its offense down the stretch and resulted in a comeback victory for the Cornhuskers. Meanwhile, UCLA shifted everyone to Smith during the pick-and-roll to ensure he never had an ounce of space. He had some success, limiting Smith to 12 points and a 4-to-4 assist-to-turnover ratio in the Bruins’ 69-67 victory at the Pavilion.
In Purdue’s loss to Indiana at Assembly Hall, senior transfer Conor Enright played all 40 minutes while guarding Smith. He credited“The big guys were protecting themselves, the guys were stopping, scoring. There were five guys keeping the ball every time, so not just me but everyone.” Smith finished 6 of 14, scoring 14 points and turning the ball over four times.
So the question for Michigan is which poison to take, and that will depend on how they construct the roster. The Wolverines are blessed with some truly athletic big men; Yaxel Lendeborg and Morez Johnson will likely both see their fair share of defensive opportunities tonight.
But the fear will be that Purdue goes after Elliot Cadeau and Aday Mara. Mara is a great post defender, but I don’t think he has the lateral quickness to keep up with Smith on the perimeter. Vice versa for the 6 foot 1 inch Gift against the tall Boilermakers. A help defense and perimeter guard is open for CJ Cox or Fletcher Loyer, both of whom are better than 35 percent shooters from deep. Michigan’s typical lineup works well if Smith struggles to shoot, but otherwise those two give Purdue a pretty distinct advantage on the defensive end.
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Instead, I could see Michigan playing “small ball” with Johnson seeing the majority of the game at the 5, Lendeborg at the 4, Roddy Gayle Jr. at the 3, Nimari Burnett, at the 2 and Trey McKenney at the 1. In this scenario, McKenney would be the “smallest” player on the field at 6-foot-4. Each has and could defend against multiple positions if Smith converts at a high level. While Michigan generally turns everything on, this formation (or some interpretation of it) probably makes the most sense so as not to sacrifice offensive performance.
Regardless of how the Wolverines decide to go after him, Smith represents the biggest individual threat Michigan has faced this year. And no matter how well he plays, Purdue head coach Matt Painter is going to continue to fuel his offense with his best player. After his setbacks during the Boilermakers’ trio of defeats, The painter said it“He’s so good and he puts us in such good positions…he’s our guy. We come back to him.”
