Another day, another $10 billion.
Money continues to change hands in the NBA, the latest being the impending sale of the Lakers, which could alter the course of the league’s offseason. Expansion, for example, was supposed to be a superficial topic at the upcoming July Board of Governors meetings, but Mark Walter’s 11-figure offer to the Buss family could accelerate (or, at least, enliven) the conversation.
In other words, if the expansion fee ends up being about half of Walter’s offer — say between $5 billion and $6 billion — the league’s owners could pull out their calculators and green light Commissioner Adam Silver’s phone calls to Seattle and Las Vegas. That’s how remarkable it is — or “crazy,” as one team executive put it — that the Lakers’ sticker price turned out to be $10 billion.
“I would say that the valuation of all the other teams increased by 25 to 30% that day,” the team executive said.
All of this points to a summer of expansion talk, whether it’s the potential 31st and 32nd teams or the plausible 16 teams in the proposed NBA Europe. None of this will be decided by Labor Day, but growth is clearly within reach in a league about to enter the first year of a $77 billion media rights deal. The only questions are: how, to what extent and how quickly investment bankers intervene.
National expansion
Until now, the expansion has never been officially discussed in a BOG session. “There may have been side discussions between people, but in a board meeting, no discussion about expansion,” one governor said. “So if the clock actually starts in July with the first discussion, it’s a long process. I don’t think a year from now the expansion will be resolved.”
But that doesn’t mean the debate will be calm this summer. Many governors likely won’t be interested in expanding the league because it would mean splitting their media rights money two more ways. Starting now, each NBA team will receive a generous $142 million in national TV money around New Year’s Day 2026, which will come in handy, especially if they’re in the second fiscal apron or have a weak local TV deal. Not to mention that the $142 million figure will increase 7% per year over the next decade. Some owners — and reports say the Knicks’ James Dolan is one of them — don’t want that money touched.
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“That’s why I don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion, honestly, that we’re going to grow,” the team governor said.
On the other hand — now that Jeanie Buss and her five siblings have reached a deal worth $10 billion and the Celtics are selling for about $6.1 billion — the league will rely on investment bankers to determine the appropriate expansion fee. It feels like a Las Vegas offer could fetch as much as $6 billion and a Seattle offer as much as $5 billion, and, if that’s true, each of the 30 teams could walk away with nearly $400 million each. While Silver said he doesn’t think the Lakers’ numbers affect expansion, others think it at least tilts the discussion.
“The young, financially savvy owners are going to say, ‘Wait, I’m getting a $400 million direct payment today? I’m going to take that money and do something else with it,'” another team executive said. “Especially if these are guys who don’t plan on owning (a team) forever. And, by the way, give one of these owners $400 million in cash – that will finance your mixed-use entertainment district. Or at least you’ll get the money you need. The rest they can take out a loan for.”
There’s a sense that a Las Vegas expansion bid could fetch as much as $6 billion and a Seattle bid as much as $5 billion, and if that’s true, each of the NBA’s 30 teams could walk away with nearly $400 million each. This could be a game changer for expansion.
The likely outcome, after debating all of this, is a push — meaning the league creates a national streaming RSN with Amazon, YouTube or ESPN by the end of next season and then revisits its expansion with even more media money in its pocket. But that doesn’t change the central question in the boardroom this summer, which is what the Lakers and Celtics sales numbers mean for the rest of the league.
One team executive said the Lakers’ sale price was even more transcendent than the one Steve Ballmer purchased from the Clippers for a then-record $2 billion in 2014 — which, at the time, laid the groundwork for the sky-high sale prices of the Nets ($2.35 billion), Hornets ($3 billion), Bucks ($3.5 billion) and Suns ($4 billion). His feeling is that the valuation of each NBA team will rise even more, along with expansion fees – but not to the level of the Lakers.
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“I think Golden State, maybe at its peak, could (reach $10 billion), but the truth is the brand value and what Los Angeles is, it’s just different,” the executive said. “It’s really carrying the league. I don’t know how much of it is LeBron, but I read and watch everything that’s going on nationally, and I’m so pissed off. The leaders are always the Lakers, whether they suck or there’s no story, because of the interest of their fan base. It drives the numbers up.”
For these reasons alone, the BOG must this summer start asking whether the expansion fee is a Lakers price, a Celtics price or a Suns price – or somewhere in between. Because owners ultimately have to choose between expansion fees and the full amount of media rights.
“If they’re growing, you have to think, ‘I’m happy to dilute the goose that lays the golden eggs because I think I can get a better return on it with the cash ($400 million),'” one team executive said. “But that’s what the financial people are going to model. They’ll model 400 million today versus empty extra money over the next 11 years. It’s a math equation for these guys.”
NBA Europe
Perhaps there is a more simplistic way to make all governors happy. It’s called NBA Europe.
Silver also conceptually referred to the proposed league as an “expansion,” but with fewer strings attached. The idea is to bring together 16 clubs across Europe – some established, some newbies – and charge an entry fee. What is the number? That’s the problem.
Existing EuroLeague clubs, for example, are not money-making ventures and, according to that country’s team executives, need to be “NBA-ized.” There are few premium seats in their arenas and currently no way to guarantee NBA-style gate receipts. For example, sources indicated that the NBA Games Paris 2025 at Accor Arena could have raised around $4.5 million, but it was a one-time event. Doing this every night is probably not feasible. But that doesn’t mean the NBA wouldn’t like to try, perhaps with a team like Paris Saint-Germain, which is 87% owned by Qatar Sports Investments and could afford to pay a high entry fee while upgrading its stadium.
If most European ownership groups could pay an eye-watering entry fee – perhaps a few hundred million – it would be a win-win for NBA owners. They wouldn’t have to give up a share of their national media rights (like they would for NBA expansion) and make money while they sleep.
“I guess one way to connect the two is to increase your equity in the game by building a league in Europe,” said an NBA governor. “And in a way, you’re diminishing the individual owner’s equity in the NBA by expanding into the NBA. Interesting difference.”
Silver said NBA Europe will again be a topic at July’s BOG session in Las Vegas, and the feeling across the league is that it is the commissioner’s “passion project,” with the goal of commercializing European basketball and perhaps furthering its legacy.
“He really emphasizes that,” one team executive said. “The idea is: own more content. Don’t encroach on what’s already there. Create a more competitive landscape in a macro world. I think Adam would say this: ‘How can we own the entire basketball ecosystem?'”
The European project is led by Deputy Commissioner Mark Tatum, with assistance from Leah MacNab, the league’s head of international strategy and operations, and George Aivazoglou, general manager of NBA Europe and Middle East. All indications are that the BOG will hear updates this summer from investment banks that are vetting potential stakeholders – and will then begin examining the possibilities.
For example, an NBA Europe could create new international agreements on media rights. Or dream scenarios in the future, in which NBA teams could play parts of their seasons in Europe or have the NBA Europe champion qualify for the NBA playoffs. “I’m just making this up,” one team executive said. “But when you talk out loud, those are the funniest things. Can you imagine taking a Spanish or Parisian team and putting them in the NBA playoff mix? If you had a magic wand, what could you do? The bottom line is: How do you leverage the NBA’s master brand?”
Again, it’s a mathematical equation.
