The picture is almost complete, but everything can still be turned upside down. With 90 minutes to go before the end of the initial phase of the Champions League, it’s time to start doing the math.
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As things currently stand, Serie A would not have a single team in the top 8 and therefore, to hope to reach the round of 16, he would have to go through the playoffs.
Last night, Atalanta found itself at one point, thanks to the results obtained, in 3rd place, only to concede three goals to Athletic and slip to 13th place. It turns out that three of our four teams are grouped together: after the DEAone place below is Inter, while Juve are in 15th place. Napoli are far behind and in danger of being eliminated.
But what are the odds to make one elite? And what are the chances of ending up in the playoffs? THE Opta supercomputer carried out 10,000 simulations and drew up an overall portrait.
🏅 Who is going to the round of 16?
According to Opta, Arsenal will win the group. No surprise here, especially after the victory at San Siro which allowed the Gunners to maintain a 3-point lead over Bayern Munich in second place.
No good news for Serie A, because even Atalanta doesn’t have a big odds to finish among the top 8. The simulations, in fact, only give Palladino’s team a 13.42% chance of qualifying directly, which is even more than Juventus (6.75%) and Inter (6.31%).
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The list of eight qualified teams therefore includes Arsenal and Bayern already qualified, followed by Liverpool, Real Madrid, Barcelona, Tottenham, Manchester City and Atletico Madrid.
⚔️ Playoffs, Naples in danger!
Now let’s come to the positions that matter for the Italian teams. Atalanta, Juve and Inter are expected to finish between 9th and 16th place, which would guarantee them the chance to play the second leg of the playoffs at home.
It’s a different story for Naples. The Azzurri have a very difficult match in Maradona against Chelsea, and their fate is also linked to results in other areas.
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To get on the playoff train, Conte must beat THE Blues (although this might not be enough in the unlikely event that all clubs currently between 17th and 24th place win). A draw would be like crossing your fingers while waiting for good news from the other matches. In case of defeat, elimination is certain.
🏆 Who lifts the cup?
Once again, Opta tried to go further, much further, trying to predict who would have the best odds to lift the cup.
Once again, few surprises: Arsenal leads the way, with more than 30% chances. Then come Bayern (16.75%) and City (8.81%).
The highest ranked Italian team here is Betweenranked 10th among potential winners, with a probability of only 2.34%.
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This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇮🇹 here.
📸 STEFANO RELLANDINI – AFP or licensors
