With the 2023 season behind us and the Hot Stove already lit, we take a close look at some of the hottest players on the free agent market.
Name: Cody Bellinger
Position:CF/1B
Previous team:Chicago Cubs
Age (as of opening day 2024):28
Statistics 2023:.307/.356/.525, 26 homers, 97 RBIs, 20 stolen bases, 95 runs, .881 OPS, 133 OPS+
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Not long ago, Bellinger was considered one of the best players in baseball. In the first three years of his career, Bellinger earned 2017 National League Rookie of the Year honors, two All-Star selections, a Gold Glove, a Silver Slugger and of course, the award NL Most Valuable Player ’19.
In 2020, Bellinger and the Dodgers won the World Series title, but his numbers during the pandemic-shortened season weren’t quite up to his high standards. They saw a much bigger decline in 2021, and while he showed some improvement in 2022, he bore little resemblance to the star slugger who took the league by storm a few years earlier.
The Dodgers without call for tender Bellinger after the 2022 campaign, so he bet on himself by signing a one-year deal with the Cubs, confident that he would be able to bounce back and take another chance on the free agent market.
The gamble paid off. Bellinger hit a career-high .307 for Chicago as it won NL Comeback Player of the Year Honors, recording his best on-base and slugging percentages since his MVP season. Bellinger – who led the Majors with 75 RBIs from July 1 through the end of the season – became the seventh player in Cubs history to join the 20-20 club, joining Ronald Acuña Jr., Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman as the only players in the Majors to hit at least .300 with 25 homers and 20 steals in 2023.
What will all this mean for Bellinger in free agency? The 28-year-old is widely considered the second-best hitter on the open market behind Ohtani, putting him in position to sign a nine-figure contract.
Yankees
Bellinger’s family history dates back to the Bronx, where his father, Clay, played an important role with the Yankees from 1999 to 2001. But the Yankees’ interest in the former National League MVP has more to do with with their need for attack – especially a left-handed bat – than with any sentimentality. New York has a vacancy at center field, and although Jasson Domínguez could return to center full time by 2025, Bellinger could play there next season before moving to first base once Anthony Rizzo’s contract expires . The biggest obstacle to a Bellinger-Yankees game might be Juan Sotowho the Yankees might prefer as a primary target this offseason.
giants
San Francisco went on a big-name hunt last winter, missing Aaron Judge and voiding its Carlos Correa deal due to a physical issue. Many expect the Giants to pursue more stars this offseason, with Bellinger among the leading candidates. The Giants’ .695 OPS ranked last in NL in 2023, thanks in part to the outfield’s .682 OPS, which also ranked last. Ohtani is the best bat available on the market, but Bellinger could also be a great fit for San Francisco’s lineup.
Small
Chicago rolled the dice on Bellinger last winter after the Dodgers failed to extend an offer, giving him a one-year deal worth $17.5 million. Bellinger rewarded the Cubs with a bounce-back season, but now it’s going to cost a lot more over a lot of years to keep him on the North Side. Bellinger thrived at Wrigley Field, posting a .902 OPS with 14 home runs in 66 games, so a return to Chicago — where the Cubs remain thin in center field and first base — would be beneficial for both sides.
Sailors
Count the Mariners among the teams in need of a left-handed power bat, which makes Bellinger a logical choice for the lineup. Julio Rodríguez has center field locked down, but Bellinger could play a corner spot in Seattle’s spacious outfield while also seeing time at first base (and possibly a designated hitter), so there would be no shortage of at-bats for him.
Blue Jays
The likely departure of Kevin Kiermaier opens up a spot in center field, where the Blue Jays would love to add a left-handed bat. However, whether Toronto can afford to sign a free agent of Bellinger’s magnitude could depend on the Jays’ plans regarding potential extensions for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, who are both two years away. free agency. Given the state of the AL East, the Blue Jays will likely look to add at least one big name this winter as they attempt to win their first division title since 2015.
SCOUT’S POINT
“When Bellinger is right, he is a five-tool MVP caliber player with the ability to impact the game from the batter’s box, base paths and multiple positions. With a hitting approach designed to lift the ball to most of the field, he spent his final two seasons in Los Angeles swinging and missing far too many elevated fastballs; this limited his ability to harness his power consistently and get on base enough to use his legs. A change of scenery and/or a return to full health unlocked the hitting ability that made him an MVP three seasons prior. This season he took more contacts than in recent years and started to fill up the stat sheet again. The biggest question mark is whether he will be able to stick with this approach in the future. If he can, you get one of the most unique skill sets in the game: a runs-producing left-handed hitter who can steal bases and give you plus defense in center field and first base.
BUYER BEWARE
My colleague Mike Petriello recently immersed in Bellinger’s fascinating season, which saw him post terrific numbers despite ranking in the bottom 10% of the league in hard hit rate – a sharp drop from 2019, when he ranked in the 86th percentile. Bellinger cut back on his swing-and-miss last season, but as solid as he was, he was still far from his MVP peak four years ago.
FOR ASSEMBLY OF COMP
Bellinger’s career followed a similar path to that of Kris Bryant, who won the 2015 NL Rookie of the Year, the 2016 NL MVP award and was a member of the Cubs’ World Series the same season. Bryant didn’t experience the same steep decline that Bellinger experienced in 2021-22, but he did deal with some injury issues in his years leading up to free agency. Their overall numbers are comparable: Bryant had a slash line of .278/.376/.504 with 167 home runs and 487 RBIs in 884 games before free agency, while Bellinger has a slash line of .258/.335/ .493 with 178 home runs and 519 RBIs in 875 career games. Bryant signed a seven-year, $182 million contract with the Rockies following the 2021 season.
