Sitting at the top of the list of contending teams that have yet to make a splash this offseason, the Chicago Cubs finally made a major move on Wednesday, agree to acquire right-handed pitcher Edward Cabrera in a trade with the Miami Marlins. In return, the Marlins will receive a trio of hitting prospects, including 23-year-old outfielder Owen Caissie, who made his MLB debut in 2025, as well as two lower-order bats, shortstop Cristian Hernandez and cornerback Edgardo De Leon.
At this point, fresh off their first playoff appearance since 2020, the Cubs’ winter activity consisted almost entirely of signing free agent relievers, with the return of left-hander Caleb Thielbar (one year, $3.75 million), the additions of right-handers Phil Maton (two years, $14.5 million), Hunter Harvey (one year, $6 million) and Jacob Webb (one year, $1.5 million), and the acquisition of another left-hander in Hoby Milner (one year, $3.75 million).
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Although these signings were for a bullpen that was in dire need of restocking, Much bigger questions loomed over Chicago’s offseason. Would the Cubs add an impact starting pitcher to improve a rotation that could use a boost, even after retaining left-hander Shota Imanaga via qualifying offer? And if they have no interest in pursuing a reunion with top free agent Kyle TuckerWould the Cubs pursue another big-time bat to replace his production?
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Speculation continues regarding the plan for position players. So far, the only hitter added to Chicago’s major league roster is first baseman Tyler Austin, returning to MLB for the first time since 2019 after a highly successful half-decade in Japan.
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But the acquisition of Cabrera marks a serious effort by president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer to significantly improve the starting lineup — the kind of move many Cubs fans have been waiting for all winter. No, Cabrera doesn’t have a track record of high-end results normally worthy of a major offseason splash. But on the positive side — and given that he’s under contract through 2028 — Cabrera definitely fits the bill as a valuable target and pitcher for whom Chicago can project exciting growth with the right fits.
What the Cubs are getting in Cabrera
Cabrera has always thrown extremely hard, first hitting triple digits nearly a decade ago as a teenager, in turn jumping on the radar as one of the Marlins’ most tantalizing pitchers. Injuries and sometimes serious struggles with command halted his progress toward becoming a reliable member of the rotation, even once he finally made it to the majors in 2021. But Cabrera always had a deep enough pitch mix and threw just enough strikes to avoid being converted to a reliever, and he rewarded Miami’s patience with a breakthrough 2025.
Last season, Cabrera sharply reduced the usage of his four-seam fastball, from 27% to 13%, instead amping up the usage of a two-seam fastball while deploying his two fantastic secondary offerings more effectively: one of the nastiest curveballs in the league and a change that the average is ridiculous at 94.2 mph. After a rough April (7.23 ERA in 18.2 IP), Cabrera’s improved mix helped him excel all the way in 2025, with a 2.95 ERA in 119 frames, which ranks eighth among National League starting pitchers during this period. Add in a career-low 8.3% walk rate – an encouraging step in the right direction after starting the season with a 13.3% free pass percentage – and it’s no surprise that Cabrera has been seen as an enticing trade target this winter.
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But despite all the positive indicators in Cabrera’s profile, the risk is also significant. Beyond inconsistent strike throwing, the main reason Cabrera has yet to amass enough of a resume to build a better reputation as a quality starting pitcher is his troubling injury history. Since his 2021 debut, the right-hander has repeatedly battled arm ailments, including elbow tendinitis in 2022, shoulder impingements in 2023 and 2024 and an elbow sprain in early September. He returned in time to make two starts late in the regular season and finished 2025 with a career-high 137 ⅔ innings, but that late-season scare is hard to ignore given his spotty record for durability.
This inevitable red flag with Cabrera is even bigger considering it was just a year ago when the Marlins and Cubs almost made a trade for Jesús Luzardo before Chicago. reportedly backed down due to concerns about Luzardo’s medical records. Luzardo was eventually traded to Philadelphia and pitched a career-high 183 ⅔ innings, serving as a reminder that predicting a pitcher’s health is a fickle exercise. Perhaps Cabrera will prove more reliable than expected as a Cub, but his availability will certainly be something to monitor.
What the Marlins Get in Return
At first glance, Miami’s three-player return for Cabrera might seem slight compared to the four prospects plus a draft pick loot that Tampa Bay scored last month for right-hander Shane Baz, another starter with three years of lefty team control and terrific stuff who has yet to fully realize his potential. Perhaps Cabrera’s trade value was diminished by concerns about his durability, but it’s worth noting that the Marlins landed a headliner who should contribute immediately to the majors. While the Rays have attracted a lot of exciting prospects who might not be great players for a while (if ever), in Caissie the Marlins added a player who could pay dividends immediately. So, a lot now depends on Caissie to validate the Marlins’ decision to build a Cabrera trade around him.
This is not to write off Hernandez and De Leon, as both could become useful players in the future. From Leon showed impressive power as an 18-year-old in the Arizona Complex League last summer. Hernandez’s shaky hitting tool slowed his development despite promising speed and defense, but his physical attributes have attracted talent evaluators for years; he received one of the largest signing bonuses ($3 million) in his 2021 international signing class.
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But make no mistake: This deal speaks to Miami’s belief that Caissie can become an important part of its lineup long-term and could contribute to a winning ballclub in 2026. In the Marlins’ outfield, he will join Kyle Stowers and Jakob Marsee, two other left-handed hitters who were acquired in trades that flourished greatly for the Fish last season.
This is actually the second time Caissie has been traded in his young career, having been traded to the Cubs for Yu Darvish just months after the Padres selected him out of a Canadian high school in the second round of the 2020 draft. Since then, Caissie has risen through the minor league ranks, consistently demonstrating his superior left-handed power while striving to keep his strikeouts at a manageable level. He posted a Above-average wRC+ at all minor league levelslargely due to his power output but also his ability to roam, ensuring strong on-base skills that helped mask the high odors.
A crowded outfield depth chart in Chicago has allowed Caissie to play 226 games in Triple-A over the past two seasons – a particularly inflated total for a top prospect – and he has performed quite well in that sample (.887 OPS). With Tucker set to leave in free agency, it seemed like the door was open for Caissie to finally get a real run as a Cub in 2026. Instead, Chicago traded him to fill another roster hole, amplifying existing questions about the team’s plan to replace Tucker in the outfield and in the lineup in the short and long term.
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After a forgettable (and incredibly brief) appearance in the big leagues in August, Caissie has yet to prove that his offensive profile will translate at the highest level. His 28% strikeout rate over a sizable sample of Triple-A plate appearances could portend a prolonged adjustment period in the majors. But these days, it’s not uncommon for some hitters to be productive while striking out a group — just ask Caissie’s new teammate, Stowers. And with another wave of promising arms ready to fill Cabrera’s innings, the Marlins were smart in targeting Caissie in this trade as they continue to build a more formidable core of position players.
