Game of the week
Seattle Seahawks (13-3) vs. San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
The final round of the regular season delivered results and more, with two knockout games deciding the final playoff spots. Will the Ravens take revenge on the Steelers to capture the AFC North title? Can the Panthers hang with the Buccaneers and claim the NFC South? Will either winner advance to the first round next week?
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What we can be more certain of is this: Once the dust settles in Tampa, the cream of the NFC will compete on the West Coast. Seattle heads to the Bay Area for a Saturday night showdown with San Francisco, with the No. 1 seed on the line. The two rivals are coming in strong on a six-game winning streak, desperate to avoid a loss that would cost them a bye week and force a wildcard road trip. The tension will be at its peak.
What the Seahawks must do to win
Nothing. Absolutely nothing. Don’t even consider tinkering with a defense that plays this well. Seattle has given up 18.1 points per game this season, the second-fewest total in the NFL, and its 44 sacks rank eighth overall. Brock Purdy will have his work cut out for him against a ferocious pass rush and may have to do it without future Hall of Fame left tackle Trent Williams, who injured his hamstring against the Bears. Without his chief protector, Purdy could spread catch-ready passes all over the field.
The offense, meanwhile, needs to relax. The 49ers have a habit of making quarterbacks look like world champions, effortlessly. Remind Sam Darnold that Cardinals journeyman Jacoby Brissett set an NFL record for completions against San Francisco this season. Get the ball to Jaxson Smith-Njigba and let the points flow. Interceptions shouldn’t be a major concern: Even though Darnold leads the league with 20, the 49ers have only thrown six all season. It’s easy.
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What the 49ers must do to win
Stop the race. Seattle has thrived thanks to Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet as defenses remain wary of Smith-Njigba’s deep threat. The run defense is the only consistently solid facet of San Francisco’s unit. In the season opener between these teams, the 49ers held Charbonnet to 47 yards on 12 carries and Walker to 20 yards on 10 attempts. Seattle stalled and San Francisco escaped with a 17-13 victory.
Nick Bosa’s final strip-sack that day killed a late comeback at Lumen Field. Without him, however, the pass rush was abysmal, producing a league-worst 18 sacks. For context, the Jets have eight more at 31st, while the Broncos have 46 more at the top. Without pressure on the sometimes fragile Darnold, the 49ers must sell out to end the run. Forcing Seattle to place the No. 1 seed on Darnold’s shoulders — a big ask for a quarterback with a habit of retreating into his shell in the spotlight, as seen in last season’s loss to the Rams.
On the rise: the Houston Texans
Houston remains strangely under the radar of Super Bowl contenders, despite being the NFL’s hottest team, with a league-best eight-game winning streak. How do the 11-5 Texans do it? A mix of factors. Being second to Jacksonville in the AFC South helps, although they can still win the division by beating the Colts if the Jaguars lose to the Titans. Their 3-5 start, spoiled by a sputtering attack, also persists in perception.
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Will CJ Stroud and his colleagues regress when the stakes rise? Maybe. But if Jacksonville and Houston both win on Sunday, a relatively forgiving trip to Baltimore or Pittsburgh awaits. The Texans’ fierce defense should overwhelm either opponent, setting Stroud up for a third straight appearance in the AFC Divisional Round. With the seasoned experience of two previous failures – and a potential matchup in Denver, where defenses rattled Bo Nix – Houston could be ready for a first conference championship appearance in franchise history.
Fall: Los Angeles Rams
The Rams’ Christmas season was brutal. Back-to-back losses have propelled them from the top of the NFC West to the sixth seed. Their only way to avoid a dreaded road trip to Philadelphia in the wild card round is to beat the Cardinals and hope Seattle takes care of San Francisco.
Before Monday’s disastrous loss to Atlanta, Matthew Stafford was the hot favorite for the MVP award. After throwing three interceptions, the prize now appears safe in the hands of Drake Maye.
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So what went wrong for Sean McVay’s Rams? The offensive collapsed. Wide receiver Davante Adams has been a glaring absence in the red zone. Stafford’s MVP case was built on Adams’ finishing with his one-on-one dominance. A burst of 11 touchdowns in six games fueled a 5-1 midseason run. His return cannot come soon enough. Nor that of left tackle Alaric Jackson and right guard Kevin Dotson. Constant shuffling up front has left the Rams disjointed, culminating with just the third first-half shutout in the McVay era since 2017. Unless reinforcements arrive quickly, this slide could continue directly after the playoffs.
Race for the No. 1 pick
The Raiders almost did it. Placing their two star players on injured reserve produced the desired catastrophic result against the Giants, leaving Las Vegas with the worst record in the league at 2-14. A loss to another broken team, the Chiefs, would guarantee the top pick — but will Andy Reid really be foiled by a team actively trying to lose in what could be Travis Kelce’s final game? Unlikely.
The race for number 2 is even more complicated. Four teams are 3-13: the Jets, Giants, Titans and Cardinals. Their opponents – the Bills, Cowboys, Jaguars and Rams – include three playoff teams and an angry Dallas team. Relief is unlikely, with neither of them eager to rest. If all four lose, the draft goes to the Giants in second place, the Jets in third, the Titans in fourth and the Cardinals in fifth due to scheduling.
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If the season ended today…
AFC 1) Denver 13-3; 2) New England 13-3; 3) Jacksonville 12-4; 4) Pittsburgh 9-7; 5) Houston 11-5; 6) LA 11-5 chargers; 7) Buffalo 11-5. Bubble: Baltimore 8-8
NFC 1) Seattle 13-3; 2) Chicago 11-5; 3) Philadelphia 11-5; 4) Carolina 8-8; 5) San Francisco 12-4; 6) Los Angeles Rams 11-5; 7) Green Berry 9-6-1. Bubble: Tampa Bay 7-9
