NFL Playoff Projection: It’s not a classic Ravens-Steelers game, but it could determine a playoff spot

The AFC North has seen better days. So did the rivalry between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens.

Many seasons, the AFC North has been among the best divisions in the NFL. This is not the case this season. Every other division has at least two teams with a record above .500. The AFC North doesn’t have one. Barring a tie, that will change Sunday when the 6-6 Ravens take on the 6-6 Steelers. It will also go a long way in determining who gets a playoff spot in the AFC North, although the 4-8 Cincinnati Bengals aren’t dead in the race yet.

The Ravens have bounced back from a 1-5 start to the season, but a 32-14 loss to the Bengals last week indicated they still have plenty of issues that could keep them out of the playoffs. The Steelers have their problems too. They struggled on both sides of the ball in a 26-7 loss to the Bills, leading some local fans to start a chant to fire coach Mike Tomlin. The Steelers and Ravens have battled for AFC supremacy for many years, but now they are simply hoping for a win to stay relevant.

Baltimore is still favored to win the division, at 51.1%. DVOA projections compared to 42.4% for the Steelers. The Steelers can turn those odds around and then some with a win in Baltimore. According to NFL.comthe Steelers will be 61% to reach the playoffs with a victory and 16% with a defeat. For the Ravens it is 81% victory and 36% defeat. The teams have a similar schedule throughout the streak. The division will likely be decided if either team manages to sweep the other. They face each other again in Pittsburgh in Week 18.

Someone has to win the worst division in the NFL this season. We’ll be closer to an answer after Sunday’s showdown between the two teams tied for first place.

Here are the other Week 14 games that will have the biggest impact on the playoff picture:

Dallas Cowboys vs. Detroit Lions

Neither team is in playoff contention heading into Week 14. The winner of this Thursday night game will not be guaranteed a place in the playoffs. But the loser will be in bad shape four weeks from the end.

This looks a bit like an elimination game in the NFC picture. The 6-5-1 Cowboys are back in the picture, but because they got off to such a slow start, they can’t afford a loss that drops them to .500. They are ninth in the NFC playoff race and just ahead of the Panthers 7-6 in 10th place.

The fact that the Lions are out of the current playoff bracket in December is a shock. But they are only 7-5. Another loss, especially to another wild card contender, would be a major blow.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Colts went from a 7-1 start to maybe I need this victory. They are tied with the Jaguars at 8-4 for the division lead and the Texans are 7-5. The Colts’ remaining schedule after this game: vs. Seahawks, vs. 49ers, vs. Jaguars, vs. Texans. It’s a brutal time. Losing a game behind the Jaguars with many tough games remaining would not be good for their playoff hopes.

The Jaguars have quietly climbed to four games above .500 and have won three in a row. Winning Sunday would increase their chances of making the playoffs to 96%, according to NFL.com.

Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers

The Bears are currently the No. 1 seed in the NFC, and a win at Green Bay would be a sign they can stay there. The 8-3-1 Packers are just behind the 9-3 Bears, and the fact that the Packers find themselves in Dallas early in the season eliminates a lot of the math regarding tiebreakers (which could be good for Chicago since they have two division losses, and the Packers have none). Chicago faces Green Bay in the final series of games on Sunday and faces the Packers again in Week 16. A loss wouldn’t be a huge blow to the Bears’ chances of winning the division as they get the rematch at home, but a win would push them to a nice lead over the Packers with just four games remaining.

Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Chefs haters, this is a big game. If the Chiefs lose, their playoff chances would be reduced to 11%, according to NFL.com. But a victory raises them to 50%. This game looked like a Chiefs win a few weeks ago, but the Texans got hot. Houston’s defense has been the best in the NFL. The Texans have won four straight and are in the AFC South race as well as the wild-card race. A loss here would hurt both, and especially the Texans in the wild-card race, as they would cede the head-to-head tiebreaker to Kansas City. They would also be two games behind the winner of the Colts-Jaguars game.