After winning six of seven matches on their road trip, the New York Islanders lost four of their first five games to begin their seven-game homestand.
Although the game’s results tell a story, head coach Patrick Roy remains confident in his team, which remains 13-10-3 and is tied with the Pittsburgh Penguins for the second wild card spot.
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“Sometimes after games there’s nothing to say,” Roy said.
“And I think today is an example. We did everything right. We had a lot of shots and we had a lot of chances. We just failed. We were able to make excuses. I understand. I mean, the standard of our team is to win hockey games and do the right thing, but sometimes we just have to keep playing the way we are and believe that things will go our way.”
Stefen Rosner asked Roy if he noticed anything different between how they played on their recent road trip and how they are playing now.
“I feel like we played pretty much the same,” Roy said. “Actually, we give up maybe more shots on the road than at home, but other than that, I feel like we played the same kind of hockey. Really. Did the puck bounce, maybe a little more on the road, maybe, yeah – obviously we score more goals. But I mean, I felt like we played really well defensively. I thought on the trip where we won, what six out of seven, I mean, the game we lost was the game we played our best and we played good hockey and unfortunately we don’t win.
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There’s no doubt the Islanders’ finishing has struggled during their recent stretch, shooting just 3.49%, but is the rest of their game there?
Through the first five home games, the Islanders have taken 69.1 shot attempts per 60 minutes, including 12.39 from more dangerous areas. Both of these measurements are significantly higher than their road trip, where they had 50.23 and 9.57 respectively, according to Natural Stats Tip.
In 5v5, the numbers are closer: 63.02 to 48.39 for shot attempts and 10.98 to 9.27 for high-danger shot attempts.
Natural Stat Trick’s expected goals model also has the Islanders generating 3.8 expected goals per 60 minutes at full strength during the home game, compared to 2.9 on the road trip.
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However, the Islanders only scored 1.16 goals per 60 minutes during that stretch, while they scored 3.38 on the road trip.
Roy himself said after the Islanders’ 3-1 loss to the Boston Bruins in their third home game on Nov. 26 that shot quality needed to improve, and that’s something expected goals models have a hard time understanding when they track location on the ice but not location on the net.
Fortunately for the Islanders, the chances are there, and if nothing else, the defense has been much improved.
During the home game, the Islanders gave up just 18.19 shots per 60 minutes, compared to 29.13 on the road trip – an improvement of more than 10 shots.
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They also conceded 5.81 fewer high-danger shot attempts per 60 minutes, down from 14.91 to 9.1.
On the season, the Islanders have a 9.75% shooting percentage, sixth-lowest in the NHL, but that’s still 6% higher than their home streak.
Roy himself said there are no moral victories and the goal remains to win hockey games, but fans and the team should remain optimistic that, at the very least, the data is promising.
