Week 13: NFL Picks Against the Spread, Predictions for Every Game: Packers-Lions Lead Strong Thanksgiving

The Detroit Lions were a machine last season. They went 15-2. We also saw that level from them this season, but it didn’t stick.

The Lions went from a Super Bowl contender to a team that could miss the playoffs. They needed an almost miraculous field goal to send last week’s game against the New York Giants — a 2-10 team with their third quarterback this season — into overtime. They won that game, but the Lions have played too many games this season in which they played well below their talent level.

One of those games took place in Week 1. The Lions were demolished by the Green Bay Packers. They lost 27-13, and the score only looked as good because Detroit got a touchdown in garbage time. Green Bay vastly outperformed them. Like the Lions, the Packers have since struggled to consistently play at this level.

Although the Chicago Bears (8-3) are in first place at the moment, they will need quality wins to maintain that spot as the schedule gets tougher. The Lions Packers will, at the very least, clarify which team has the best chance of battling the Bears for the division title.

This also looks like a pivot point for the Lions. If they are truly a team capable of making the playoffs, they will face the Packers at home, get revenge, and grab an inside track on the NFC North title. A loss wouldn’t eliminate them from the division race, but it would put Detroit out of reach. The gap is Lions -2.5 from BetMGMand Detroit is the choice. It’s hard to write them off as a potential Super Bowl team. But it’s time for them to prove it.

Aidan Hutchinson of the Detroit Lions hits Packers quarterback Jordan Love during a Week 1 meeting between the teams. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)

(Patrick McDermott via Getty Images)

Here are the rest of the NFL Week 13 picks, with odds from BetMGM:

Chiefs (-3) against the Cowboys

Are the Cowboys a playoff contender after a win against the Eagles? Probably not yet. DVOA gives Dallas a 7.3% chance of making the playoffs. But a victory over the Chefs would significantly change these chances. Dallas certainly can’t afford to fall to 5-6-1 this late in the season in a tough NFC. Dallas faces a Kansas City team that should already be in playoff mode, as a loss here would be detrimental for the Chiefs as well. We’ll be skeptical of the Cowboys for another week.

Bengals (+7) over the Ravens

A team’s record doesn’t always tell the whole story. Baltimore is 5-0 in their last five games. But if you’ve watched the Ravens lately, you know they haven’t been as dominant. They took an easy part of their schedule and let some bad teams hang around too long. Lamar Jackson hasn’t looked close to his normal self since returning from a hamstring injury. They’ll face a Bengals team that will be happy to bring Joe Burrow back into the lineup and perhaps play the role of spoiler down the stretch. Cincinnati can stay the course.

Eagles (-7) against the Bears

If the Bears are anything to go by with their 8-3 record, then they should cover that spread easily. It’s okay to be cautious, considering the Bears have very few decent wins and a -3 point differential. The Eagles will be angry after a bad loss, although it’s worth wondering if their offense is capable of taking out their frustration on anyone.

Browns (+5) over 49ers

The 49ers defense is weird. They’ll give up a ton of yards for a few games, then emerge with a strong performance like Monday night against the Panthers, or when they shut down the Falcons in Week 7. The Browns’ defense is legit, and even though Shedeur Sanders hasn’t figured out the NFL just because he played well against the Raiders, the team seems energized by him. This is a tough spot for the 49ers, especially if the weather is bad.

Jaguars (-6.5) vs. Titans

The Titans have covered the spread three games in a row, but let’s not go too far. They were down 23-3 against the Seahawks before Seattle let the Titans in through the backdoor during trash time. The Jaguars have renewed hopes of an AFC South title and should take care of business, even if it’s still a little shaky with Trevor Lawrence.

Texans (+4.5) over the Colts

The Colts deserve to be favored and by more than a field goal. This still seems like a great spot for the Texans, who have won three in a row, are coming off more rest and could get CJ Stroud back. The Colts have looked a little shaky lately. The Texans’ defense will keep them in this game, and Houston winning outright is also possible.

Dolphins (-6) over Saints

I wouldn’t have imagined a few weeks ago that Miami would give up six points to anyone, but here we are. The Dolphins are bye and the Saints looked bad last Sunday against Atlanta. It’s hard to consider the Dolphins a heavy favorite, but it’s even harder to know what we’ll get from the Saints.

Falcons (-2.5) over Jets

Atlanta probably doesn’t turn around its season with Kirk Cousins, but the Falcons are better than the Jets. New York changed quarterbacks due to Justin Fields’ struggles, and Tyrod Taylor wasn’t much better. There aren’t many cards left to play for the Jets this season.

Buccaneers (-3) against the Cardinals

Baker Mayfield’s status is uncertain, and the line indicates that oddsmakers don’t believe he will play. The Buccaneers with a healthy Mayfield should be much more than a home field goal favorite against an Arizona team that has lost eight of nine. Even without Mayfield, the Cardinals are tough to play against.

Panthers (+10.5) over the Rams

Last week, the three biggest underdogs in the table were covered. No matter how lopsided a game seems, it’s difficult to cover a double-digit spread in the NFL, especially on the road. The Panthers looked awful in Week 12 and the Rams looked like the best team in football. Still, he’s a double-digit underdog in the NFL. Although there are some villainous underdogs this week who are much harder to pick, like…

Seahawks (-11.5) vs. Vikings

On the one hand, the Vikings offense can’t be much worse with Max Brosmer starting for JJ McCarthy. And, as we just said, double-digit underdogs in the NFL are usually good picks. But it’s a really tough situation for Brosmer, an undrafted rookie who has eight pass attempts. Seattle has one of the best and most complicated defenses in the NFL. The Seahawks also have a real home-field advantage. The Vikings will rally around Brosmer, but that might not be enough.

Steelers (+4) over the Bills

This is not the Bills team we expected. Josh Allen is still great and the Bills don’t have much else to lean on. Last week’s loss to the Texans was ugly. The Steelers aren’t great but the Bills are vulnerable.

Chargers (-10) over Raiders

Another double-digit underdog that’s just too much to digest. The Raiders might be the worst team in the NFL. Firing offensive coordinator Chip Kelly was justified based on the offense’s results, but it creates more upheaval for a team that doesn’t need any further adversity. The Chargers also get an extra week off after the bye. This could get ugly.

Broncos (-6.5) over Commanders

If the commanders want to put in a good performance, it could happen on a Sunday night like this. But this is a fantastic Broncos team with an outstanding defense that had an off week to rest. The only question is whether the Broncos offense can score enough to cover.

Giants (+7.5) over Patriots

The Patriots are a better team, but they suffered some injuries on the offensive line last week. That’s not good right before facing the Giants pass rush. The Giants are 2-10 but are surprisingly competitive. They are 7-5 against the spread. This should be a decent game Monday night, even if it’s a 10-2 team hosting a 2-10 team.

Last week: 6-7-1

Season to date: 94-81-5