Ultimately, the lack of starting pitchers didn’t technically sink the 2025 Red Sox.
The club’s crushing of the Yankees in the wild-card round was the product of a hot-and-cold offense turned icy at a most inopportune time. After a blowout Game 1 win behind a legendary start from Garrett Crochet, Boston’s hitters grabbed some melatonin candies and went wild, managing to score just one run in the final 15 innings of their season.
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But the starting pitchers in those contests didn’t exactly save the day either.
An untimely injury to Lucas Giolito in the 11th hour pushed Brayan Bello to start Game 2 and pushed rookie left-hander Connelly Early into an unexpected assignment for Game 3. Bello recorded just seven outs. He got going early in the fourth but gave up four runs along the way. Only a heroic display from the Boston bullpen kept things close.
If the Sox had outlasted the Yankees, their pitchers would have needed a miracle to defeat the eventual AL champion Blue Jays. Boston’s arms just weren’t good enough.
The leaders of the Red Sox clearly understood this reality.
The team’s top executive, director of baseball Craig Breslow, kept quiet during general managers’ meetings when asked about the team’s rotation plans. “Start pitching,” he said bluntly when team reporters, including MLB.com’s Ian Browne, asked about the club’s offseason priorities. “And especially someone who we think can start alongside or get behind Garrett and start a playoff game for us.”
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The Red Sox have now checked that box – sort of, maybe, sort of. That entirely depends on your opinion of Sonny Gray.
Tuesday, the veteran right-hander was traded from St. Louis to Boston in exchange for a pair of young arms, Richard Fitts and Brandon Clarke. To get the deal across the finish line, Gray had to waive his no-trade clause. Best of all, the Cardinals are sending $20 million to the Red Sox to cover a significant portion of his contract, which was reworked alongside the trade.
Gray’s starting salary for 2026 was set at $35 million, with a $5 million buyout for a 2027 player option unlikely to be activated. This arrangement has since been modified; Gray will now receive $31 million this season, with the buyout totaling $10 million. In total, Gray gains an extra million by waiving his no-trade clause, and the Red Sox push some of the financial burden of his deal into the future.
The bottom line, after all that complicated math, is that employing Gray will cost Boston about $21 million next year.
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That’s a reasonable price to pay for a pitcher with Gray’s track record of durability. He has covered 531 innings since 2023, the 11th-highest total in baseball. During that span — the first year he spent in Minnesota before a free agent deal took him to St. Louis — the 36-year-old has been a well-above-average starter (3.63 ERA). And while his numbers on the surface have declined steadily from year to year, his numbers under the hood haven’t changed much.
Gray remains superb at two of the pitcher’s most crucial tasks: limiting walks and racking up strikeouts. Among pitchers with at least 30 starts in 2025, only Bryan Woo, Garrett Crochet and Tarik Skubal had better strikeout rates. Gray also threw one of four Madduxs last season (a complete game on fewer than 100 pitches). Despite its age, it is far from washed.
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Still, there are a few yellow flags, namely Gray’s diminishing fastball velocity. His two heaters – he throws a four-seamer and a sinker – averaged just 92 mph in 2025, which placed him in the 16th percentile for fastball velocity. And so, unsurprisingly, Gray’s four-seamer was absolutely hit by hitters. The pitch’s lack of zipper allowed hitters to yank him into the air quite often, leading to an ugly .585 opposing hitting percentage against his four-seamer.
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Another notable outlier about Gray: He works with right-handed hitters more often than almost any other right-handed pitcher. In 2025, only Jacob deGrom threw a higher percentage of pitches (84.4%) on the outside half to righties than Gray (78.9%). This is a sign of two things: 1) he no longer has enough fastball juice to hit hitters inside, and 2) he is therefore relying on his breaking stuff.
This approach should harmonize well with Boston’s organizational philosophy focused on speed. Expect Gray to rely even more on his curveball and sweeper in 2026, two pitches that rated highly in his final season with St. Louis. If he can locate these deals consistently and keep his juicy fastball out of danger, Gray should continue to function as an impact starter.
What impact? Well, that’s the whole question.
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If you think Gray is undoubtedly a No. 2 starter that the Sox can slide behind Hook, this trade is a massive win. If you think he’s more of a backfield inning sponge, then you probably think Breslow needs to add another frontline piece. In other words, Gray is the type of arm you’d trust to start a playoff game, but you’d definitely prefer it to be Game 3 or Game 4, not Game 2.
The Red Sox paid a significant price for knowing which bucket Gray falls into. Fitts, acquired from the Yankees in the Alex Verdugo deal in 2023, struggled in 2025 but presents as a decent lever reliever or back-rotation piece. Considering he still has six years of control, that’s a valuable asset. Clarke, however, might be the real prize. The lefty tight end, drafted in the fifth round by Boston in 2024, has elite raw stuff and absolutely no idea where he’s going. He walked nearly a batter per inning in 2025, but didn’t give up a single home run and posted eye-popping strikeout rates. Clarke also missed time down the stretch due to injury. This is a high-risk arm with a cathedral ceiling, and in the small chance that everything clicks, Clarke has a chance to become an All-Star. That’s a good thing for a rebuilding Cardinals team.
There’s also the $21 million now awarded to Gray. That’s a significant part for a Sox team that, in its recent history, has struggled to stay below the luxury tax. Boston would love to bring back Alex Bregman. If they don’t, another offensive acquisition seems likely. All of this costs money, potentially preventing the Red Sox from making another big addition to the rotation.
None of this is Gray’s fault; it’s a useful piece that should make Boston better. But as is often the case, the outcome of this trade will depend on how the rest of the offseason goes.
