Shohei OhtaniThe ultimate destination of free agents remains the biggest mystery of the offseason. While we wait for a resolution, we asked our experts – Mark Feinsand and Jon Paul Morosi – to weigh in on some key questions many fans are concerned about and which concern the two-time MVP free agency.
1) The Dodgers have long been considered the favorites. Do you think this is still the case? Would you face them on the field?
Fine sands: Although a number of teams are considering taking a chance on Ohtani – among them the Mets, Giants, Cubs, Red Sox, Rangers and Angels – I would still face the Dodgers in the field. Los Angeles seems to be playing the long game for the last year or two in anticipation of signing Ohtani, and even though he won’t be able to pitch until 2025, just imagine sending out a lineup every night with Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Ohtani hitting from the first round. What a scary thought for the rest of the league.
Morossi: No MLB team has a better chance of signing Ohtani than the Dodgers, but I don’t think their probability exceeds the 50% threshold. The Dodgers’ advantages are well-documented: Their status as a perennial playoff team will appeal to Ohtani, who has yet to make the MLB postseason. Their team doctor, Dr. Neal ElAttrache, operated on Ohtani earlier this year. We know Ohtani lives comfortably in Southern California. And yet, Ohtani’s wishes have so many unknowns that I consider “the terrain” a stronger prediction.
2) Is there a “dark horse” that fans should pay more attention to?
Fine sands: It feels like we’ve been so focused on the Dodgers and Giants because we think Ohtani wants to stay on the West Coast, but what if he’s ready to head East? The Red Sox have fallen out of the spotlight in Boston, so what better way to make headlines again than to draft the best player in baseball? Ohtani is said to love hitting at Fenway Park, and in his two career starts there, he has allowed one run while striking out 14 in nine innings. Just as Chaim Bloom’s tenure was defined by his first trade for Mookie Betts, perhaps Craig Breslow’s run as director of baseball will be launched by the signing of the two-time American League Most Valuable Player.
Morossi: I will mention two. The Blue Jays are seriously considering pursuing Ohtani, and Toronto (the only MLB franchise outside the United States) presents a unique opportunity for the sport’s biggest international icon. It helps that Ohtani owns a 1.139 career OPS at Rogers Center.
The Braves appeal to Ohtani from a competitive standpoint. His best opportunity to win is with a franchise that has an abundance of top young players under long-term contracts. The Braves fill this category better than any other MLB franchise.
3) There has been a rumor that he might be open to a short-term deal, likely so he can return to the market after showing he can still dominate on the mound. Do you think there is a chance of this happening?
Fine sands: I think there’s a better chance of Ohtani returning to Japan than signing a short-term deal. That’s not to say his contract won’t have an opt-out clause after 2025 or 2026, which would give him an opportunity to test the market again if he returns to his high level on the mound, but when you will have the opportunity. To sign the biggest contract in the history of North American sports, you shouldn’t roll the dice for a short-term deal. My guess is that Ohtani’s contract contains not only an opt-out clause, but also a number of creative incentives based on innings pitched and perhaps even games completed in case he gets closer at some point of the transaction.
Morossi: No. Interest in Ohtani is so strong that he will have the opportunity to negotiate an opt-out option if he wishes. Opt-out clauses have become the norm in contracts for industry superstars, in which teams assume the greatest long-term risk and players benefit from a short-term commitment (if they choose) .
4) To what extent (if at all) do you think geography is important here?
Fine sands: This is the biggest mystery for some teams. As I mentioned earlier, we don’t know if Ohtani is committed to staying out west or if he would be willing to sign with an East Coast or Midwest club. I doubt we’ll hear anything firm about this from anyone really in the know, because there’s no incentive for Ohtani and his agent, Nez Balelo, to show their cards on the matter. Why say you’re only considering West Coast teams when clubs like the Mets, Cubs and Red Sox might be willing to go above and beyond with their offers? Ultimately, I think he stays in California and heads up I-5 to Dodger Stadium, but until he signs somewhere, any team willing to spend big should theoretically still be in the mix .
Morossi: Geography matters less to Ohtani than the first time; Generally speaking, location is less important than other factors, such as organizational culture and opportunity to win. He knows North America in a way he didn’t when he joined Major League Baseball. He would rather sign with an Eastern time zone team that has a strong chance of winning than a West Coast team that struggles to compete.
5) In what month do you think he will sign?
Fine sands: December. Unlike 2019, when Bryce Harper and Manny Machado saw their free agency extend into February, I don’t think Ohtani will have such a problem. There are a finite number of teams that have the financial means to pay Ohtani whatever it takes to sign him, and once he and his agent know which teams those are, it will come down to two things: which team will he choose? to want to play for, and how far can Balelo take this team to go? My guess is that Ohtani will be signed by the end of the Winter Meetings, which concludes December 7 in Nashville, Tennessee.
Morossi: December. Ohtani is such a unique player on the market that he could sign at any time. It’s not like teams are waiting to sign Ohtani or equivalent cumulative value in bullpen arms. In the strategic thinking of an organization, it occupies a category of expenses in its own right. That being said, Ohtani will likely realize that other players — and the market as a whole — will benefit from his decision on a home in the coming weeks. As a result, I expect him to sign before the end of the calendar year.
