NFL Week 7 Picks, Best Bets: Bills beat Patriots, Bucs hold at home, why NFL scores are low

Apparently I felt bad about going 3-3 with my best bets in this column this week, because I decided to go way over my normal word total and even added a table explaining why a heavy favorite on the road in a division game is a solid bet. .

Or maybe I was toning down the bottom trend – bottoms were broken last week with NFL scoring down.

We actually delved into the topic on the latest episode of the Pick Six podcast – listen/subscribe/download here — and congratulations to the new ones producer of Harry Swartout pods for jumping on the trend and setting the table for fantastic times Brady Quinn And Lightweight Douzable takes. I obviously encourage you to subscribe to the pod, but we’re all millennials at heart so here’s the condensed version via the @NFLonCBS YouTube page:

Obviously, if you enjoyed these quality football takes, hit the subscribe button or add the pod to your rotation.

I think there are other factors in the score as well, but Vegas noticed: there are six games in Week 7 with an Over/Under below 42 (six touchdowns, plus a successful XP on each, three per team per match!) and 11 games with a total of 45 or less. There are only 13 games this week, so don’t count on a ton of goals this week either.

You can view all my choices at SportsLineOr you will also get choices of other experts like RJ White.

Best bets!

Both of these teams are coming off tough losses in Week 6. The Buccaneers were politely informed by Detroit that they didn’t belong in the upper echelon of NFC teams, while Atlanta was handed a dump. Desmond Ridder first defeat at home either at university or among the pros, thanks to Commanders. Now, Atlanta hits the road for a divisional clash against an elite defense that simply presents a bad matchup. Tampa has a very good defense and is elite at stopping the run thanks to Vita Vea inner presence. Only the Eagles have over 70 rushing yards against them. Atlanta hasn’t been running the ball as well as Arthur Smith wants, so we could see a ton of pass attempts from Ridder here. Atlanta is a “running funnel”, which suits Tampa perfectly, since the Bucs can’t run the ball anyway. This could be a Baker Mayfield/Mike Evans blowout spot. Obviously this pick changes if Baker is out this week, although he wasn’t on the injury report Wednesday (hand), so I’m not worried about his suit.

From Tom Brady On the left, things have gotten worse for the Patriots. Bill Belichick feels internal and external heat. In all of this, it’s an understatement of just how hard the Bills hit New England in the wake of the GOAT’s departure. The two teams have faced each other seven times since Brady flew south in free agency (including a playoff game) and the results are decidedly one-sided.

That makes it 6-1 Bills in case you’re not good at reading tables, and if I left an asterisk on a game it wouldn’t be the playoff game, it would be the only Patriots win, which performed during the infamous “MNF” “Wind Game” which featured Belichick showing up for his pregame interview wearing a Navy football mask (it was 2021 after all) and 32 straight running plays called by the Pats. Even Josh Allen’s The rocket arm was neutralized by bad weather. Buffalo is a heavy favorite here, but I’m not sure that really matters, given the state of the Patriots. New England can’t run or pass the ball and injuries have derailed the defense, which ranks just 14th in DVOA (the offense is 29th). Buffalo is a top team and Sean McDermott isn’t afraid to take on a divisional opponent. While the Bills are coming off a close primetime victory against the giantsI expect them to be very aggressive for 60 minutes in New England on Sunday.

Like Buffalo, Seattle is also coming off a “meh” performance last week – a 17-13 loss to the Bengals, and like the Bills, the Seahawks are a favorite for touchdowns and more in Week 7. They face a division matchup against a “dashing” opponent in the Cardinals… but they might be a little undervalued here. There’s talk of how fragile the Cardinals are due to preseason expectations, but they’ve been quietly beaten over the past three weeks, losing by more than two touchdowns in all three weeks while failing to cover. Had things broken down, Arizona could have started 3-0, but there was little doubt about the outcome of the final three games. They now have a Seahawks defense that is the best in the league against DVOA management. A poor Cardinals defense and an explosive Seattle offense, along with that run-stuffing potential, likely turns Josh Dobbs and this offense into a one-dimensional offense, which is a bad recipe for Arizona.

Detroit Hype City is a reality: the Lions are all the buzz these days. It’s worrying that they have disappeared David Montgomery and on a second straight road game, but I’m not sure it would be shocking to see a bunch of Lions jerseys in the stands next Sunday. Baltimore fans won’t refuse to show this or anything, but there were a ton of Lions fans in Tampa last weekend. THE “Ford Field South” videos are just crazy.

Two weeks ago, on a Thursday, there were also a lot of Lions fans in Green Bay. They are passionate fans who have put up with A LOT of bad football over the past few decades. If my favorite soccer fan stunk my whole life and suddenly became this good, you can be sure I’d be interested in seeing every game possible. Baltimore is (sort of) on its way back and (sort of) a short trip from Detroit. This isn’t necessarily why I choose Detroit, but I’m curious to see if it matters in Baltimore as well. Jared Goff playing great football at the moment, Amon-Ra St. Brown looks healthy, Jameson Williams adds a deep threat and Detroit may be forced to trigger Jahmyr Gibbs in this game. Detroit’s defense should be able to get home Lamar Jackson. This game only offers a total of 42.5, which means an expected rock fight. I’ll take the field goal with the most complete team here.

The 2021 Rams started much stronger than this year’s team, coming out 7-1. But this team was 12-1 to win the super bowl with a plus/minus of 10.5. This year’s team performed below average expectations and now sits at 3-3 with losses to 49ers (best football team), Bengals (Joe Burrow must-win home game) and the Eagles (a very good football team with an incredible second half defensive performance). The Steelers coming off their bye is problematic, but the Rams will be able to continue throwing fast hitters towards Cooper Kupp And Puka Nacua Since Matthew Staffordwho is playing exceptional football this season.