Until recently, Kansas City’s identity was based solely on Patrick Mahomes and his high-scoring offense. Mahomes has the ability to outplay any opponent, and he’s often had to do so to fill in the Chiefs’ defensive gaps.
The scenario has changed. The shift in team identity this season has been dramatic. Mahomes can still do his job, but now the defense has his back. Kansas City is tied for first in the NFL in scoring defense (15.9 points per game) through 10 weeks. At this point, it’s not a fluke or a small sample size — the evidence shows that the Chiefs win primarily because of their defense.
The Eagles are heading to Kansas City for Monday Night Football and a Super Bowl rematch, so it’s worth thinking about how they meet in February. When Mahomes left the field trailing 10 points at halftime, the outlook was bleak. The Chiefs had an offensive touchdown and a defensive touchdown, and Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts controlled the game aside from a costly turnover. Mahomes rallied and scored two touchdowns in the fourth quarter before leading a drive for a last-minute field goal and a 38-35 victory.
Kansas City’s defense is better now than it was then, and Philadelphia’s offense isn’t as electric. Hurts, who had 70 rushing yards and three touchdowns in the Super Bowl, has averaged just 21 rushing yards over the past three games while being hampered by knee soreness. Hurts also threw eight interceptions in nine games after throwing just six picks all last season.
The Eagles, 5-1 in games decided by seven points or fewer this season, were outscored 406-292 in their 28-23 victory over the Cowboys two weeks ago. In other words, Philadelphia survives by playing with fire.
The Chiefs have only scored 31 points or more twice in nine games, but Mahomes can step up a gear when needed, and he can count on the defense to help him seal the deal.
The Travis Kelce-Taylor Swift angle is a funny topic for some. Chiefs coach Andy Reid’s record after a bye (21-3 in a row, 15-9 against the spread) is comforting. But the bottom line is I want to bet on the combination of Mahomes and the league’s No. 1 defense.
Pick: Chiefs -2.5
All five of my teams went 3-2 last week, putting the season record in this column at 23-24-3. Four additional games for Week 11 (home team in CAPS):
A shoulder injury ended quarterback Deshaun Watson’s season, forcing Cleveland to turn to rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Thompson-Robinson was terrible in his first start against Baltimore, but he will be better this time. The Browns’ biggest advantage is their defense (18.9 points per game) and their ability to pressure the quarterback. Pittsburgh has been dominated in all nine games and its 6-3 record could easily be turned around. The Steelers’ winning formula – or their luck factor – is unsustainable.
This should be a good time to take down an overrated Houston team. When the media starts touting a rookie quarterback (CJ Stroud) as an MVP candidate, expect a reality check. Better yet, the Cardinals suddenly look like dangerous dogs with the return of quarterback Kyler Murray. Arizona’s defense allowed just 70 passing yards and 3.9 yards per play in a 25-23 win over Atlanta a week ago.
If this game is weak and ugly, it will be a good sign for Carolina. The Panthers have been pathetic offensively, and rookie quarterback Bryce Young looks more like an undrafted free agent than the No. 1 overall pick, but coach Frank Reich is returning to play-calling duties to try to turn around the situation. It’s also a bad situation for Dallas, which played the Giants and has another NFC East game on deck for Thanksgiving. The Cowboys could be flat and lose focus on the road against a lightweight opponent. According to ESPN.com, road favorites by seven points or more are 0-8-1 ATS this season.
Losers three in a row and four of five, the Rams (3-6) are in a must-win position, so quarterback Matthew Stafford returns just in time from a thumb injury. Stafford will move the ball with help from receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Seattle’s defense is struggling, ranking 25th in the league in allowing 354 yards per game. Big money is surfacing on the Rams, who are small favorites in some books but still small dogs at DraftKings.
