Despite a pair of rather tumultuous games against Idaho and Boise State (37-34) to open the season, Oregon (13-0) cruised through its Big Ten schedule to finish the regular season as conference champion B10 during its inaugural campaign. The Ducks’ 2nd-ranked SP+ offense ranks top 10 nationally in success rate, EPA/play and negative play rate. Despite ruthless efficiency metrics, Oregon isn’t as explosive as its 2023 version, ranking 81st in passes of 20+ yards (16%) and 110th in yards per successful carry (8.7) . Defensively, their secondary is superb, ranking 5th in pass completion rate allowed (33.5%) and 9th in EPA/dropback. However, OU has been somewhat vulnerable on the ground, ranking 89th in EPA/rush and 81st in yards per successful rush.
Ohio State’s lethal offense (10-2) ranks in the top 10 on each side of the ball in success rate, EPA/play and marginal efficiency. The main areas of weakness on offense are the Ohio State O-line’s ability to handle extra rushers, ranking 78th with a sack rate of 9.2% and a concerning blown run block rate of 10, 1% which ranks 94th nationally. Defensively, OSU is elite, ranking No. 1 overall in the FBS according to SP+. The Buckeyes secondary faces the fifth shallowest passes in the country, with only 9.4 percent of passes occurring more than 20 yards downfield. OSU’s tenacious defensive line ranks 5th nationally with a 43.4% pressure rate and 2nd with a 9.8% net sack rate, so opposing quarterbacks have rarely had enough time to sit back and wait for deep routes to develop. The Buckeyes are allowing a somewhat high completion rate of 60.1% (63rd), but still rank 3rd overall in EPA/dropback, so allowing short completions hasn’t hurt them.
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Game Details and How to Watch the Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Ohio State
· Date: Wednesday January 1, 2025
· Time: 5:00 p.m. EST
· Website: Rose Bowl
· City: Pasadena, California
· Television/Streaming: ESPN
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Rose Bowl Game Odds: Oregon vs. Ohio State:
*odds courtesy of PariMGM
The spread opened Oregon at -1.5 early in the session, but quickly turned the corner and is now trading at a consensus line of -2.5. The OSU moneyline is currently showing a best price of -132 while Oregon is pretty firm at +115 right now. The game’s initial total of 53.5 is constantly increasing and can reach 55.5 in some places.
NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
NBC sports betting analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“The game total is set at 54.5 points, with the Oregon team’s total at 26.5 points, which is very reasonable. With their last game ending 32-31 and Oregon scoring at least 31 points in 11 of their last 12 games, the only exception being a 16-13 win over @Wisconsin. I think Oregon comfortably eliminates its total of 26.5 teams in a competitive back-and-forth game.
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Rose Bowl Quarterback Matchup: Oregon vs. Ohio State
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Oregon: Dillon Gabriel is in the midst of his sixth collegiate campaign and has accumulated an impressive 18,430 passing yards and a 153-32 passing ratio during his remarkable career. He completes 72.6% of his shots (3rd nationally) for 8.7 YPA and a 28-6 ratio for the still-undefeated Ducks, but his 6.9 ADOT is the lowest average depth of target among 99 qualified flaggers. The emphasis on the short-range passing game explains Oregon’s unusually low 8.7 yards per successful carry, which ranks 110th in FBS. Oregon currently has a success rate of 73.2% (2nd in FBS).
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Ohio State: Will Howard spent his first four collegiate seasons running the Kansas State offense before transferring to Columbus this offseason. The former Wildcat now leads OSU’s dominant offense that is outscoring opponents by an average of 26.8 points per game, which is the highest win differential in the nation. He’s completing a superb 72.9% of his throws (2nd in FBS) and working with future NFL Draft first-rounders in Emeka Egbuka and freshman Jeremiah Smith. The Buckeyes’ ruthlessly efficient passing attack ranks 3rd in completion rate (53.7%) and 7th in yards per dropback (8.2) despite throwing just 9.9%. their passes more than 20 meters from the field (123rd). Howard’s PFF passing grade of 84.2 ranks 13th among power conference signal-callers and represents the best mark in his five-year career, the previous record being 72.7.
Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Ohio State – Trends and Stats
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Oregon’s secondary has been at its best when the game is on the line, allowing just 2 first downs on 28 targets in close and late situations, the lowest completion rate allowed among P4 programs.
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Oregon has held opponents for a loss on 20 of 102 rushing attempts (20% TFL%) in the red zone since the 2023 season, 16th best in FBS.
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Oregon has allowed just a 33% completion rate on third-and-short this season, leading the Big Ten.
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Oregon’s WRs have caught 189 of 247 passes this season, the highest rate among Power Conference teams.
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Oregon is 2-5 (.286) ATS when converting on less than 50 percent of third-down conversion opportunities this season, 11th worst among Power Conference teams. (Average: 0.450)
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Oregon is 15-7 (.652) against the spread when rushing for 120 yards or more since the 2023 season, 32nd best in FBS. (Average: 0.563)
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Ohio State’s offense has thrown for 20 yards or more on 12.5 percent of 344 attempts this season, which is 28th best among FBS offenses. Oregon’s defense has allowed more than 20 yards on just 7.9 percent of attempts this season, which is 23rd best among FBS defenses.
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Ohio State QBs have totaled 3,369 passing yards in 13 games this season, which is 32nd best among FBS teams. Oregon’s defense has allowed just 175.7 passing yards per game this season, 3rd best among Big Ten defenses.
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TreVeyon Henderson has rushed for 10 or more yards on 29 of his 118 carries this season, best among FBS running backs. He also averages 8.6 yards per touch from scrimmage in the 4th quarter, which leads the nation.
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Ohio State’s opponents have averaged 54.2 pass attempts per TD since the 2023 season (best in FBS).
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Ohio State hasn’t held its opponents for a loss on any of 33 rushing attempts on 3rd and short this season, tied for worst power conference teams with Rutgers (0-30).
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Ohio State is 7-8 (.412) against the spread when it has an opponent’s turnover margin since the 2023 season, 36th worst in the FBS. (Average: 0.481)
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Games involving the Buckeyes have failed in 72% of their games when they were favorites since the 2023 season, 4th among Power Conference teams. (Average: 50%)
Most bet games (tickets)
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Notre Dame-Georgia
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Penn State-Boise State
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State of Texas and Arizona
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Ohio State-Oregon
Most teams bet (tickets)
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Georgia -1.5
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Penn State -11
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Oregon +2.5
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Arizona State +12.5
Most teams bet (handle)
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Texas -12.5
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Georgia -1.5
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Penn State -11
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Ohio State -2.5
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