The title of the latest Atlanta Falcons announcement was looking more and more likely.
The subtext of Tuesday night was more surprising.
The Falcons didn’t just Veteran bench quarterback Kirk Cousins 14 games later signed him to a deal worth $90 million guaranteed at signing
They also gave the rookie they drafted eighth overall the keys to the castle — indefinitely.
“After review, we have made the decision that Michael Penix will be the starting quarterback for the Atlanta Falcons,” said head coach Raheem Morris. said in a statement. “This was a football decision and we are fully focused on preparing the team for Sunday’s game against the New York Giants.”
The Falcons may be focused on the Giants game, but the rest of the league is watching with at least as much interest what happens next for Cousins.
Conversations with five league sources covering coaching, management and representation backgrounds provided context to Yahoo Sports in the hours following the Falcons’ announcement. The sources spoke on condition of anonymity because of the competitive advantage of discussing the Falcons’ roster moves.
Here’s a look at league news on some of the biggest questions surrounding this decision.
Will the Falcons play Cousins again?
Barring an injury to Penix, the answer was a resounding no from all corners of the league. Sources did not believe the Falcons would move between quarterbacks, or even give Penix a try before making him the starter. Cousins’ recent five-game streakwith nine interceptions for a single touchdown, helped confirm this decision. But the mosaic of reasons includes a player and a quarterback struggling to succeed together; an Achilles repair hangover that tends to linger the first season after the injury; and the desire to look to the future with a healthy runway for Penix rather than focusing on sunk costs. A source also mentioned the belief that Cousins would not cordially accept the decision to fight for his job in December, if the team made a proposal week to week.
League sources unanimously agreed with the Falcons’ decision to change quarterbacks now, as 7-7 Atlanta sits one game behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC South race. What they disagree on: Whether signing Cousins was a risk worth taking for the Falcons.
Were the Falcons right to sign Cousins and draft Penix in the same offseason?
It’s easy to say that going from one quarterback to 14 games guarantees failure. And from a results standpoint, the Falcons’ decision does just that. From a process perspective? Most teams would prefer to have multiple darts to find a usable quarterback if they can afford it, and one source even talked about the benefit Penix and the Falcons could reap by resting him 14 games without the level of pressure that other draft picks have been under.
No. 1 pick Caleb Williams absorbed a record 58 sacks with the Chicago Bears, as Penix learned on the sidelines. New England Patriots rookie quarterback and No. 3 pick Drake Maye started taking hits later as New England waited to start him until Week 6, but he nonetheless came under pressure with 14 dropbacks per game since, which isn’t far from the 15.2 that powers Williams. ‘ League-high 213 pressures, according to Next Gen Stats.
Waiting to start Penix is a highly regarded decision around the league. Having Penix in-house was more complicated but also respected. Sign Cousins to an expensive contract up front? An NFC executive said the Falcons positioned themselves to likely face criticism for a poor process as soon as they signed both. If either quarterback failed, much less both, their decision to invest blue-chip capital in both areas deserved scrutiny.
“They backed themselves into a corner,” the executive texted. “The only way they could look good was if Kirk played well/got injured and the kid came in and played well.
“If they move Kirk, they’ll still pay him $62.5 million for one year. The child’s early drafting forced them to make this choice. If they trade or cut Kirk and he goes somewhere and plays well, they will look bad again. This is not a good situation.
What are the financial implications for Atlanta?
The Falcons owe Cousins $27.5 million guaranteed in 2025. If he is still on their roster on the fifth day of the 2025 league year — which will be March 16, 2025 — they will owe him $10 million. additional dollars in roster bonuses in early 2026, according to source. with knowledge of the contract. Cousins also has a full no-trade clause that gives him a lot of autonomy in determining his 2025 team. This could hurt the Falcons if Cousins follows a similar path to Russell Wilson.
After the Denver Broncos released Wilson last March, Wilson signed with (and now starts) the Pittsburgh Steelers. He didn’t help the Broncos with the compensatory language that required them to pay for any contract not covered by another team. The Steelers are paying Wilson the veteran minimum of $1.21 million this season. The Broncos are paying him another $37.7 million in 2024. Expect the Falcons to also be responsible for $26.3 million of the $27.5 million next year if Cousins plays elsewhere.
In theory, even if a team signs Cousins to a multi-year deal, they could creatively structure it to essentially “borrow” $23.3 million from the Falcons in 2025 over the life of the deal. Even with a rookie contract for Penix, that’s going to stretch the Falcons. A league source believed Cousins would have more leverage for a multi-year deal than Wilson.
Where will Cousins play in 2025?
Sources from the world of managers and agents agree that it is not realistic to bet with confidence on an outcome at this time. There remains movement at head coach, general manager and quarterback on at least a half-dozen teams. The recruiting cycle hasn’t really progressed yet. Teams will need to evaluate their options. In doing so, Cousins will have one advantage: the relatively limited supply of starting quarterbacks expected to hit the market in 2025 through free agency and the draft.
“Sam Darnold and Russell Wilson are the two starters (heading to free agency) and after that it’s a bunch of guys who have failed,” one source said. “The project is terrible. The two guys at the top aren’t first-rounders who will go in the first round just because there’s a need, but they have a lot of holes in their game.”
Some teams will be more interested in a veteran with Cousins’ skillset and proven resume than the draft upside of Miami’s Cam Ward or Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders. This isn’t a draft featuring Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye and more. It’s possible a team wants Cousins as a bridge quarterback – expect Daniel Jones to fill this role as well after his recent release from the Giants – to buy time for good but not yet great prospects for 2025.
Cousins’ recent struggles will give some teams pause. But he played well as recently as the first half of this season and earned four Pro Bowl berths, including in 2022.
Years of consistency as a solid quarterback and a league-wide belief that mobility returns more in the second year after Achilles surgery than the first will work in his favor. Teams were also able to convince themselves that Cousins’ slump was as much about a struggle to get by with a new player and new weapons as it was about pure quarterback ability. The right fit, for Cousins and his next team, matters.
Sources pointed to the Las Vegas Raiders, Tennessee Titans, New York Jets and New York Giants as possible spots where Cousins could start immediately in 2025. Dark horse candidates include the 49ers San Francisco, where Cousins could reunite with head coach Kyle Shanahan for 12 years. after their two overlapping seasons in Washington and against the Minnesota Vikings. The 49ers are expected to (and should) roll with Brock Purdy in 2025 – but this is a highly anticipated team that likes a solid backup and could, if they wanted, use Cousins as a pawn in negotiations as Purdy’s window for a mega-deal opens this offseason.
Interpersonal dynamics in Minnesota could complicate the reunion so soon after head coach Kevin O’Connell and general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah left Cousins. But the league doesn’t miss the irony of the football potential a reunion would bring, as Darnold will likely command more than the Vikings want to pay, and injured rookie JJ McCarthy’s rehabilitation timeline will leave uncertainty.
Cousins will also have to decide if he wants to continue playing his 14th season at age 37.
If he does? Then, for the second offseason in a row, he will be one of the biggest names available on the quarterback market.
