The Orioles haven’t yet made a splash this offseason like many hoped, but they added some quality depth pieces to a group that made the playoffs last year, and another helping hand was added Monday night .
Right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano and the Baltimore Orioles have agreed to a one-year contract worth $13 million, sources tell ESPN. Sugano, 35, was one of the best pitchers in Japanese baseball this year, posting a 1.67 ERA and 16 walks against 111 strikeouts in 156.2 innings.
– Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 17, 2024
Let’s take a look at how Sugano helps the Orioles and the potential impact it can have from a fantasy standpoint.
How good was Sugano in NPB?
It’s not at all hyperbolic to say that Sugano was one of Japan’s best pitchers during his time with the Yomiuri Giants. During his twelve years in the league with the Giants, he compiled a record of 136-75, an ERA of 2.43, a WHIP over 1.03, and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 4, 57. He was the Central League Most Valuable Player three times during his career and also won the Eiji Sawamura Award three times. The Japanese equivalent of the Cy Young Award in Major League Baseball.
That applause is nice, but what obviously matters now for his MLB career is what he’s been doing lately. Well, what he did last year was finish with a 1.67 ERA, 111/16 K/BB, and 0.95 WHIP with a 15-3 record in 24 starts and 156 1/3 innings. That’s the second-best ERA of his career, so it’s safe to say Sugano was consistently effective in his final year at NBP. Effective is truly an understatement.
What made Sugano so effective?
Command, command and also command. Sugano pounds the strike zone with his arsenal and has never had a walk rate higher than 2.1 per nine innings during his illustrious career. However, he’s not just a guy who fills the zone; Sugano places pitches wherever he wants and rarely misses his spot with any of his pitches.
And Sugano has a lot of lands he has no place with. It will show a fastball, sinker, cutter, slider and curveball. The whole kitchen is flowing, as they used to say. The best of these throws is the cutest, but all of his off-speed throws get solid marks.
This link gives you a detailed overview of his pitch data in 2024:
When you can throw that many pitches not only for strikes, but for quality strikes, you’re going to have a good time. In general, anyway.
What are the reasons for concern?
As impressive — even dominant — as Sugano is, there’s a reason he agreed to a one-year deal, and it’s not just because he turned 35 in October.
Sugano has no shortage of bats on the same level as a Roki Sasaki or a Yoshinobu Yamamoto. That’s largely because he’s willing to throw through contact – more on that in a second – but also because he doesn’t have speed that would rank among the best in the sport. Sugano’s four-seam fastball averaged 92 mph in 2024, and that mark is unlikely to increase at his age. He had one season averaging more than one strikeout per inning, and that was in 2016. Over the past two seasons, his K/9 has been 6.3 and 6.4, respectfully.
Strikeouts count; not only helping pitchers, you know, get people out, but they’re an important figure in fantasy as well as one of the standard categories.
Has he ever faced any MLB hitters and how did he fare if he did?
He did, but it’s been a while. Sugano was unable to participate in the 2023 World Baseball Classic due to injury, but he was a major help in 2017 for Japan. He tied Kodai Senga for the strikeout lead in this tournament, and he was sensational in the semifinals against Team USA with six innings and six strikeouts while only allowing one unearned run.
Again, that was seven years ago, but it gives you an idea of how Sugano’s products can perform even without an elite heater.
Where does he fit into Baltimore’s rotation and how does his park fit him?
Part of that depends on Corbin Burnes returning. If Burnes returns to crabcake land, he’s obviously the ace. There have been rumors that Baltimore would be of interest in a Jack Flaherty reunion as well as replacing Burnes, and he would likely be at the top of the rotation in that scenario as well.
In any case, Sugano is not going to rise to the top of the Baltimore group. Grayson Rodriguez and Zach Eflin could also get the nod above him, so it’s likely Sugano will be the O’s third or fourth starter to start 2025. It doesn’t really matter, other than that, that means he makes a start or two less than some pitchers you might consider.
As for the park, it’s worth noting that Baltimore is making changes to the left field fence to make it more advantageous – or more accurately just to rectify an overcorrection with the previous adjustment – for hitters, but this should not play a major role. Even with a mediocre fastball in terms of velocity, he is a pitcher who keeps the ball on the ground with a success rate of 51.1 percent.
So, is Sugano someone fantasy managers should target?
Yes. But not particularly early. There are exceptions to every rule, and Sugano is one of those exceptions to the rule that you shouldn’t go after pitchers who don’t miss many bats. You don’t have the level of success that Sugano had with luck on BABIP; not for as many years as he did. Is the NBP as good in the league as the MLB? Of course not, but there are some very, very good players in Japan, and to say he was one of the best is an understatement. I would draft him more as my SP3 – or ideally my SP4 – than as someone who runs my fantasy rotation, but I would much rather draft Sugano early and cut bait later than miss out on him. It doesn’t hurt that Baltimore gives him plenty of chances to win with this young and talented roster.
