THE Yankees‘pivots from the disappointment of losing Juan Soto was as clever as it was immediate.
It is, Max Frit won’t fill the gaping hole in the roster left by Soto’s departure, obviously, but he could have a similar impact, especially in October.
By signing the former Atlanta Braves left-hander to a eight-year contract, $218 The Yankees’ first move Tuesday was to improve their biggest strength — their starting rotation — rather than rushing to fill the offensive need.
This makes sense for several main reasons:
1) Fried was arguably the best free agent available, depending on whether you rank him ahead or behind Corbin Burnes, and at least a handful of teams were moving quickly to make a deal, according to reports.
Plus, his addition gives the Yankees the type of starting pitcher who can win championships even without a big offense.
2)Brian Cashman will make significant moves to improve the offense, but no move has offset what Soto provided — and none required immediate action, as dictated by the market.
“It’s kind of like the scene from ‘Moneyball,'” one major league scout said with a laugh Tuesday night. “All the recruiters are sitting around the table trying to figure out how they’re going to replace (Jason) Giambi And (Johnny)Damonand Brad Pitt (as Billy Beane) says, “You don’t understand. We can’t recruit anyone who can replace these guys. We have to do it another way.
It’s not exactly the same thing, of course, because in the movie the A’s couldn’t afford to sign top free agents, so they prioritized on-base percentage, which at the time was under -evaluated throughout the match, and it paid off. Although it should be noted that the movie, for the sake of the storyline, pretty much ignored the fact that the A’s had three of the best starters in baseball at the time. Tim Hudson, Barry Zito, And Marc Mulder.
“So, I guess what I’m saying,” the scout continued, “is that the comparison works in several ways. Cashman wasn’t going to pursue offense just for the sake of acting, and I think he found a way to add as much value as possible by signing Fried. The Yankees might have the best rotation in baseball and that still matters.
“You can argue that bullpens are more important than ever, but give me starters that can throw you into October games and I think that significantly improves your chances of winning in a long postseason.”
Yes, Aaron Boone would be delighted to have Gerrit Cole and Fried as starters for Games 1 and 2 in a playoff series, likely followed by Carlos Rodon and then either Luis Gil Or Clarke Schmidt, one of them possibly becoming a Wild Card reliever.
There’s significant potential for dominance in such a series, and another scout pointed out that starter depth could also pay off in the bullpen.
“If you end up moving an arm like Schmidt or Gil to the bullpen in the postseason,” the scout said, “it has a ripple effect and potentially helps keep your late-inning guys fresher.
“Even with days off, bullpens get worn down (in the postseason). We saw it last October with a team like Cleveland. They had the best pen in the regular season, but their guys were exhausted from constant use and it caught up with them.
“The trend is to take starters out of the game earlier in the playoffs, but if you have starters on the front line, you might be a little more willing to let them go deep.”
This opens up some intriguing possibilities, of course.
Fried’s signing was universally praised by baseball fans on Tuesday, and for good reason. He turns 31 in January and has been one of the best starters in the game over the past few seasons, with ERAs over the past five seasons of 3.25, 2.55, 2.48, 3.04 and 2 .25.
The only concern regarding Fried is injury related. In each of the last two seasons, he missed time with forearm strains. In both cases, he returned from his injury and continued to throw well, but forearm injuries are always concerning because they are sometimes precursors to elbow injuries.
But assuming he’s healthy, Fried expects to age well. He’s not a huge strikeout pitcher, but he’s a master at getting weak contact due to movement on his pitches, including an elite curveball and a very good sinker.
The proof is in the numbers: According to MLB Statcast, Fried ranked in the 95th percentile among all major league pitchers in limiting hitters’ exit velocity, and in the 96th percentile in ground ball percentage .
“His team will play well at Yankee Stadium,” one scout said. “He will keep the ball in the stadium. It reminds me a little Andy Pettitte because he has a knack for getting double plays on the ground ball when he needs them. He is not bothered by traffic on the bases.
At this point, with runners in scoring position for his career, Fried has limited hitters to a .210 batting average – and .193 with two outs/RISP.
All of this explains why the Yankees’ first plan B was the right one. And while Fried’s price tag of $218 million is high, extending the deal to eight years keeps him at $27.25 million per year, which also leaves room to address the offense.
These movements are coming. Maybe the Yankees will sign Christian Walker play first base and trade for Cody Bellinger.
No matter what they do, the offense won’t be the same without Soto. But with Fried likely to make an even better strong rotation, that may not be necessary.
