Welcome to the Internet’s most accurate power rankings, where in this bi-weekly episode we’ll sort all eight NBA Cup quarterfinalist teams in an order so perfect it can’t be questioned.
The Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics have disappeared from this list. In their place are the New York Knicks and Milwaukee Bucks, the new Atlanta Hawks and the injury-ravaged Orlando Magic — perhaps the only teams capable of preventing Cleveland and Boston from meeting in the Eastern Conference finals.
If the Eastern contingent doesn’t inspire hope that the knockout phase of the NBA Cup can save us a confusing start to the tournamentcheck out the West, where the conference’s top four teams may have advanced to the quarterfinals (although the Memphis Grizzlies won’t get a chance to make a statement).
How much deeper is the West than the East? Let these power rankings be our guide.
8. Magic of Orlando
The Magic might have been the East’s best bet for the NBA Cup if they had done so either Franz Wagner or Paolo Banchero. They outscore their opponents by 9.6 points per 100 meaningful possessions when Wagner is on the court without Banchero, and they outscore their opponents by 5.6 points per 100 meaningful possessions when Banchero is on the court without Wagner, by Glass Cleaning.
And Orlando could have challenged the West winner if he was fully healthy. The Magic are rich with the type of talent that teams accumulate when they enter the draft lottery year after year, and they have the two players they need to lead them. Wagner and Banchero both displayed All-NBA ability during stints at the helm of a rising contender. It’s about exploiting it now.
But both tore their right obliques, and Orlando performed like an 18-win team without the pair. The team we see in this tournament will (hopefully) not be the one Orlando releases in April.
7. Atlanta Falcons
The Hawks remain the Hawks, capable of playing both badly and well. They still have Trae Young and all the strengths and weaknesses that come with his job at the top of their list. And they’re still fighting to avoid their annual entry into the play-in tournament.
Only now is Atlanta’s inconsistency an encouraging sign. They rely heavily on Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels and Zaccharie Risacher, all under 24 years old. Growing pains are part of their development, but there are few teams – almost none – that wouldn’t trade wings to the Hawks, and Dominique Wilkins was there the last time anyone could have claimed that.
It was enough to get them here as winners of a group that included both the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers. This single-elimination tournament will be good practice for a return to the playoffs, as there is hope again in Atlanta for the first time in a very long time.
6. Milwaukee Bucks
Remember when we delved deeper into the specialists in 3 points and encouraged Milwaukee to play AJ Green more often? Doc Rivers listened and Green rewards him (48.2% on 8.7 3PA per 36 minutes). The Bucks are 11-5 when Green plays more than 15 minutes and 1-6 when he plays less.
Green’s increased role coincided with Milwaukee’s turnaround to 10-3 after a 2-8 start. The Bucks climbed above .500 and put themselves in position for a guaranteed playoff berth. Their net rating is north of zero (0.9), and Khris Middleton made his season debut just in time for this tournament.
All signs point to a team ready to make a statement in the NBA Cup. Except you remember when we dove deep into the strength of the calendar and discovered that Milwaukee hadn’t played anyone. The Bucks are 2-8 against teams with winning records and 4-7 on the road, making them championship contenders. Participation in this tournament could change our minds.
5. New York Knicks
Tom Thibodeau reminds us at every turn that his Knicks can’t compete for a championship if their defense doesn’t improve, even though they’ve won 10 of 13 games. During that span, their 123.1 points per 100 possessions lead the league, but their defensive rating remains below average.
The porous defense is a feature, not a bug, since the Knicks employ Karl-Anthony Towns as their starting center, and they don’t have an elite protective reserve to mask its deficit. Towns has been an offensive juggernaut, and New York has followed suit, but in the back of our minds we have to wonder if the Knicks can make a stop when they need to. And they will need it.
Can you win the NBA Cup with poor defense? And if you can’t do that, what must New York’s front office think of their playoff chances? This tournament could provide the impetus for another call-up to Portland, where the Blazers’ lottery-bound frontcourt is overpopulated with capable big men.
4. Houston Rockets
The Rockets would have hoped that Jalen Green, their highly drafted wing, would have already started to realize his All-Star potential. Maybe then they could have rewarded him with a max contract. Instead, they signed him to a three-year extension worth $106 million, and his early-season production – an inefficient 19.5 points per game – confirmed the reluctance to the team.
Meanwhile, Houston has established itself as a marginal competitor this season, owners of the second-ranked defense in the NBA. And the Rockets have 11.9 points per 100 possessions better when Green is off the floor. If only they had a more reliable scorer to help their middling attack.
It’s no surprise that Green is the subject of trade rumors as Houston searches for its next superstar. And it might seem silly to use the NBA Cup quarterfinals as a test of whether or not to pull the trigger on a deal. But if the Rockets find out that green is hurting their success in this tournament, why should they think anything would change when it comes to the playoffs?
3. Golden State Warriors
There has been a lot of talk about Steve Kerr’s 12-man rotation. This approach has never produced results in the championship. This was surprisingly effective to start the season, as everyone was fresh for their minutes, which isn’t such a bad idea when your best players are in their 30s, but there have been signs of slippage in recent times weeks for all reasons. we thought.
“It’s hard as hell, there’s no two ways around it” Curry said of his coach’s tactics. “The only thing I will say is it’s hard for anyone to try to find a rhythm and know what you’re going to be asked to do. TO DO.”
It will be fascinating to see if Kerr narrows his rotation for the NBA Cup quarterfinals, as if he were preparing for the playoffs, because even the Warriors admit they won’t make it that far in the playoffs. (Their rotation dropped to 10 in their last NBA Cup game against the Denver Nuggets.) And if Kerr succeeds with a winnowed rotation, will the front office seize this as an opportunity to trade multiple assets for just one , best (i.e., Zach LaVine)?
2. Dallas Mavericks
If you’re wondering if heliocentrism can produce an NBA champion, consider this: No one has ever won a championship with a usage rate higher than 34.7%. Only Michael Jordan has won rings with a usage rate above 32.5%. – the level at which Giannis Antetokounmpo won his Larry O’Brien Trophy in 2021. And why am I telling you this?
Well, the usage rate of Luka Dončić, who led the championship in three of the last four seasons, when he used an average of 36.7% of his team’s possessions, dropped this season to 32, 8%. Since November 16, when Dallas began its current streak of 11 wins in 12 games, his usage rate has dropped to 29.5%, and he hasn’t even played in five of those games. Is he loosening his grip on the offense?
And does he tighten it up when the stakes rise in the NBA Cup quarterfinals? Will he return to the dominant brand of ball he played in the NBA Finals, when he (again) used 36.7 percent of the Mavericks’ possessions and they lost in five games? This tournament will show if Jason Kidd wants to play differently when he returns to the playoffs.
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
Since the 2016-17 season, when teams first attempted an average of 25 3s per game, no team has posted a defensive rating lower than 100. Except OKC allows fewer than 100 points per 100 possessions whenever Chet Holmgren or Isaiah. Hartenstein is on the ground.
The Thunder have played games without any of their rim protectors, outscoring opponents by eight points per 100 possessions in their absence – thanks to a mad little ball outfit. Imagine how terrifying their defense will be when Mark Daigneault can stagger his big men for a full 48 minutes and occasionally line up both at once. They might be the best defense of this era.
They’ll have to make do with just Hartenstein for the remainder of the NBA Cup as Holmgren recovers from a pelvic fracture. And if they can now navigate this Western Conference field in a single-elimination tournament, what hope do these teams have of knocking them out of a seven-game series if Oklahoma City’s big two anchor their defense in April?
