Domination in defeat.
That’s how Corbin Burnes, the consensus best free agent pitcher this winterfinished its 2024 season.
In Game 1 of the wild-card series against the visiting Kansas City Royals, the burly right-hander was sensational, giving up just one run in eight sparkling frames. It turned out to be the longest start of the entire playoffs. Yet Burnes’ Orioles couldn’t score, not even once, and so he left Camden Yards that night with an unlucky loss, his teammates congratulating and apologizing to him at the same time.
Despite the unsatisfactory result, Burnes’ year as an Oriole was a success. Acquired from Milwaukee in February for two prospects, he has generally played like the ace Baltimore expected him to be. And while the Orioles would be interested in a reunion, they will face serious competition to employ Burnes’ services in 2025, as the 2021 NL Cy Young is expected to command a contract in the $200 million range.
But is Burnes worth this type of investment? What are the reasons for concern? Can his next team count on him as a true No. 1 starter? Or is decline imminent?
Looking back at Burnes 2024
Burnes was very good through the first four months of the season, with a 2.47 ERA over 22 starts despite less encouraging peripheral statistics. Most notably, his strikeout rate has fallen to a career low. Eventually it caught up with him. In August, Burnes blew himself up, allowing 20 earned runs in 20 2/3 innings over his first four starts of the month.
But in his August 28 outing, Burnes made a massive adjustment. He’s changed the release point of his trademark cutter, a deal he throws nearly 50 percent of the time. The pitch had gained a bit of speed, giving it more lift and less horizontal movement, making it a lot less unique and a lot more hit. The change brought immediate results.
In September, Burnes ditched the short-braking slider he had used all year in favor of a longer sweeper – to great effect. Armed with a revitalized cutter and a new breaking ball, Burnes’ strikeout rate increased from 18.5% in August to 27.7% in September and October. And even though he only struck out three batters in this magnificent wild-card start, Burnes was in complete control, choosing to pitch through contact in order to work deeper into the game.
What do we think of Burnes’ strikeout rate?
Aside from the late-season surge, Burnes’ strikeout rate has gradually declined since his 2021 Cy Young season. This trend occurred despite no obvious decline in Burnes’ power or speed. While his cutter has retained its juice over the years, hitters seem to gradually adapt to the pitch; its swing and miss rate has declined steadily year over year, from 33.2% in 2021 to 19% in 2024.
For what? This probably has something to do with the pitch becoming less unique over time. In 2021, only seven starting pitchers have thrown a cutter faster than 91 mph. By 2024, that number had more than tripled, with 24 starters throwing their cutter that hard. Burnes’ cutter remains something of a unicorn — only Reds pitcher Graham Ashcraft has thrown his cutter harder in 2024 — but the league as a whole is certainly becoming…Burnes-ier.
Volume is a value
When Burnes won his Cy Young in 2021, beating Phillies starter Zack Wheeler, he did so despite only 167 innings, compared to Wheeler’s 213. This result has sparked much debate about the merits of volume versus efficiency. So it’s ironic that since 2021, only two pitchers – Logan Webb and Aaron Nola – have totaled more innings than Burnes.
In an era where starting pitchers aren’t expected to work deep into games, Burnes is a relative outlier. Only eight other pitchers totaled more than 190 innings last season. Only 22 other pitchers have made at least 32 starts. Just being available can be extremely valuable. Frankie Montas, who posted a 4.84 ERA over 30 starts in 2024, just won a two-year, $34 million contract with the Mets. Posting pays off, which is good news for a horse like Burnes looking to cash in.
Which teams are potential candidates for Burnes?
New York Mets: Sixty percent of the team’s 2024 rotation – Sean Manaea, Luis Severino and José Quintana – are free agents. President of baseball operations David Stearns filled one of those positions with the signing of Montas, but the Mets still need a front-line starter and have plenty of money to spend. Remember, Burnes and Stearns were together in Milwaukee for several years.
Baltimore Orioles: The most obvious fit is usually the team that just signed a player; the Orioles are the only team with a Corbin Burnes-sized hole. Baltimore hasn’t awarded a multi-year free agent contract since 2018, but a new ownership group led by billionaire David Rubenstein should have more appetite to spend.
Boston Red Sox: If Juan Soto, the winter’s biggest prize, signs anywhere other than Boston, Red Sox fans will be clamoring for an arm at the top of the rotation. And while left-hander Max Fried is probably a better fit for Boston’s right-handed rotation, no Red Sox fan would be mad about adding Burnes.
Toronto Blue Jays: As with the Red Sox, Burnes could be Soto’s pivot in Toronto. Much like Boston, a southpaw would make more sense, as would spending money on a slugger.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Do signing of Blake Snell prevent the Dodgers from signing Corbin Burnes? Probably, but would anyone be shocked if the deep-pocketed heavyweight was passing the money around? No not at all.
Washington Nationals: Are the Nationals ready to win in 2025? Probably not. But they also weren’t ready in 2011, when they signed Jayson Werth to a massive deal. There’s probably (understandable) trepidation about giving another long contract to a pitcher after the dual disasters of Patrick Corbin and Stephen Strasburg, but Burnes would help move the Nats closer to contention.
Overall, Burnes is one of the 10 best pitchers in baseball – maybe top five if you think his late summer adjustments were real. His ability to make changes during the season speaks volumes about his adaptability and athletic intelligence. Not many pitchers could pull off something like that.
And while predicting pitcher injuries is a game of drunken roulette, Burnes has been as reliable as anyone. It’s obviously not ideal if his strikeout rate continues to decline, especially if you pay him $230 million, but Burnes has shown he can suck up enough strikeouts without blowing up hitters. The floor here is relatively high and the ceiling, as shown in the wild card, remains supersonic.
He won’t always be an ace, but for now, that’s what Corbin Burnes is.
