Drew Smith was one of DishesThe most consistent reliever arm since his big league debut in 2018. Over 191 regular season appearances, Smith pitched to a 3.48 ERA with 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings.
But even though his overall numbers are solid (a career 2.0 WAR), Smith has dealt with a number of injury issues that have plagued him throughout his career. The right-hander underwent Tommy John surgery in the spring of 2019, causing him to miss all of that season and much of 2020, when he only pitched in eight games.
Last season, Smith got off to a good start with a 3.06 ERA in 19 games, but another elbow injury forced him to undergo his second career Tommy John surgery in July, this one also including the internal corset procedure.
With a reported recovery time of 12 to 18 months, there’s a good chance Smith misses the entire 2025 season, although he could possibly make a return toward the end of the year.
So with all that in mind, would it be worth it for the Mets to bring him back and stash him for 2026? Let’s dig in…
WHY IT MIGHT MAKE SENSE TO LET SMITH GO
It’s impossible to ignore Smith’s injury history when talking about bringing him back, and now you have to take into account that signing him this offseason would essentially mean you’re paying him to rehab during the majors part, if not all, of 2025.
Even if Smith is ready to return to the mound in, say, August or September, he’ll need a pretty significant preparation period to be ready to pitch in a major league game again.
Plus, if history repeats itself, the last time Smith came back from Tommy John and pitched in the second half of the season was in 2020, and the results, while it’s about a small sample, were not great. Smith pitched 7.0 innings that season, allowing six runs (five earned) on six hits with seven strikeouts, two walks and two home runs allowed. Rust is obviously expected any time a pitcher returns from major surgery, but if the Mets are in the thick of a playoff race, as they were last season, having a shaky Smith in the The bullpen could be a liability.
Health aside, there are also a few other red flags with Smith, including his increasing walk rate (4.6 walks per nine innings in each of the last two seasons) and WHIP (1.402 in 2023, 1,528 in 2024). Smith struck out a career-high 11.7 batters per nine innings last season, but he often had to work through jams he created himself via walks.
Smith also saw his average fastball velocity drop, from 96.3 MPH in 2018 to 94.7 MPH last season, and it’s fair to wonder how a second major elbow surgery could cause that average velocity to drop even further. .
WHY IT MIGHT BE SENSITIVE TO REPORT SMITH
Finding reliable bullpen arms can be a breeze. From year to year, the performance level of relievers seems to fluctuate more than any other spot on the field. As it stands, the Mets’ 2025 bullpen is sure to feature Edwin Diaz And Reed Garrett, and probably Dedniel Nunezbut beyond these three elements, there is a lot of uncertainty. Sean Reid Foley is arbitration eligible, but he’s also dealt with his own health issues over the years, including missing much of last season with a shoulder impingement.
All of this is to say that it would be a tough decision for the Mets to let Smith go, given the uncertain nature of the bullpen. Again, there’s a very good chance Smith won’t pitch at all next season. But if he’s able to return closer to the 12-month mark rather than the end of the 18-month mark, he could potentially be a factor down the stretch and into the playoffs.
And with Smith coming out of TJS and his recovery timetable up in the air, he’ll be very affordable. Last offseason, the Mets and Smith agreed to a one-year, $2.225 million deal to avoid arbitration. Smith is now officially a free agent, but his market value likely won’t exceed the $1-2 million range.
VERDICT
Smith is 31 and coming off a second Tommy John surgery, so it’s fair to wonder how big the market will be for him, considering he might not pitch at all in 2025.
Perhaps the Mets could choose not to sign Smith initially and then bring him back later once he has had more time to recover. But Steve Cohen and the Mets have a lot of money to spend this offseason, so perhaps signing Smith to a two-year deal for a few million dollars could be a smart move. This way, the Mets would be able to control his rehab process and potentially have him as a late-season option.
At the very least, the Mets would (hopefully) have a fully healthy Smith for the start of the 2026 season. When healthy, Smith is a solid asset out of the bullpen, and the Value of keeping him on a very modest contract probably outweighs the option of just letting him go.
