They will deny it. You bet your Golden Flakes will.
But when Saturday rolls around and the first of the final three weekends of the college football regular season begins, officials at the big, bad SEC will have one of many monitors in the league offices’ situation room turned toward what’s happening in Columbus, Ohio.
Because if number 2 Ohio State eliminates the undefeated underdog and #5 Indianathe chances of the SEC drafting five teams in the top 12 teams College Football Playoffs increase considerably. What if the Hoosiers win or stay close?
Well, Birmingham, we have a problem.
There are six CFP-worthy SEC teams, and unless Penn State stumbles against Minnesota, Maryland or Indiana is eliminated by Ohio State, four SEC teams will be in the CFP field. It’s bad enough that the CFP selection committee virtually ignores conference/schedule strength and has Penn State and Indiana – with a combined win over teams in the College Football Playoff rankings (the Illinois magically arrived at No. 25 in this week’s poll. – ranked among the top five.
It’s worse that the committee showed a clear preference for No. 3 Texas, which played one of five other CFP-worthy SEC teams and lost by 15 at home to Georgia. Alabama beat Georgia, who beat Tennessee, who beat Alabama. And Ole Miss beat Georgia, who beat Texas – who didn’t beat anyone.
Get it?
Meanwhile, there’s the 13-member selection committee — which includes six athletic directors and four former coaches — who value one-loss teams (and undefeated Indiana) above all else. To hell with scheduling difficulty.
Indiana, the darling of the CFP, has the worst strength of schedule of any Power Four team.
“We watch the games and see how the teams play, and so we evaluate their work,” said Michigan selection committee chairman and athletic director Warde Manuel, who all but admitted that eye tests were essential. “Watching the teams, watching the games, that’s the main thing for most of us.”
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A look at three undervalued and overvalued teams in this week’s CFP poll.
Overvalued
No. 4 Penn State
Best win: No. 25 Illinois.
Worst loss: No. 2 Ohio State.
This week: in Minnesota.
Eye test: Wins two Power Four teams with winning records (Illinois, Washington), a near-loss in struggling Southern California and a lot of nothing else. The four-of-three plays against Ohio State with the game on the line should be etched in the committee’s mind.
No. 6 Notre-Dame
Best win: No. 15 Texas A&M.
Worst loss: Northern Illinois.
This week: Army No. 19 (at Yankee Stadium).
Eye test: If you’re in the top six in the playoff standings with three weeks left, there should be a good chance you can absorb a loss and still make the 12 teams. But if Notre Dame loses to Army or USC, it will fall completely out of the top 12. Notre Dame — with a heavy ACC schedule and two games against military academies and two games against MAC schools — is No. 6 on strength to beat No. 15 Texas A&M.
#8 Miami
Best win: Louisville.
Worst loss: Georgia Tech.
This week: vs. Wake Forest
Eye test: It’s a joke, right? If you think Indiana and Penn State aren’t CFP worthy, what about the Hurricanes? THE calendar is bad for Indiana, and Miami needed four second-half comebacks against noted heavyweights Virginia Tech, California, Louisville and Duke. Imagine Miami’s CV compared to any of the six SEC teams. Hideous.
Undervalued
No. 9 Mississippi
Best win: No. 10 Georgia.
Worst loss: Kentucky.
This week: in Florida.
Eye test: Who wants to play against this team right now? Ole Miss is fourth in the nation in scoring offense (40.7 points per game) and fifth in scoring defense (12.9 points per game) – and the only team in the country in the top five in scoring both offensively and defensively. The Rebels lead the nation in sacks (46) and are No. 3 in long offensive scrimmages (190).
No. 10 Georgia
Best win: No. 3 Texas.
Worst loss: No. 9 Ole Miss.
This week: against Massachusetts
Eye test: Georgia’s “worst” loss was to the hottest team in the country. Georgia’s second loss was to No. 7 Alabama, and the Bulldogs have wins against No. 3 Texas, No. 11 Tennessee and No. 17 Clemson. Yeah, I’m sure the Penn State/Indiana/Miami resumes measure up to that. Hey, committee members: stop obsessing about undefeated, one-loss teams with soft schedules, and start focusing on teams with losses against much better competition ― And big victories.
No. 12 Boise State
Best win: No. 24 UNLV.
Worst loss: #1 in Oregon.
This week: in Wyoming.
Eye test: I’m going to write this until someone, anyone, on this selection committee wakes up: #1 Oregon is needed a punt return for a touchdown, a kick return for a touchdown and a last-second field goal to beat Boise State.
Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on @MattHayesCFB.
This article was originally published on USA TODAY: SEC needs Ohio State in College Football Playoff race for more teams
