Big conferences mean tricky tiebreakers.
This is the main thing to remember from 2024 college football season as none of the four remaining power conferences have any divisions. And since each conference has at least 16 teams, it is impossible for a team to play every other team in its conference.
Just look at the SEC. There could be a six-way tie for two spots in the conference title game or a five-way tie for one spot. And with Alabama beating Georgia beating Tennessee beating Alabama and teams like Ole Miss and Texas A&M also involved in the tiebreaker, it’s impossible to use head-to-head matchups. faces to determine a winner.
Here’s a quick look at who is still in the running for a power conference title with two weeks remaining in the regular season. The ACC and Big Ten are relatively straightforward. The same cannot be said for the Big 12 and the SEC.
ACC
1. SMU (9-1, 6-0 ACC)
2. Clemson (8-2, 7-1)
3.Miami (9-1, 5-1)
The ACC title scenario is the simplest of all the power conferences. SMU is guaranteed a spot in the conference title game even if it goes 1-1 in its final ACC games against Virginia and Cal. Miami, meanwhile, must win its two games against Wake Forest and Syracuse to play for the conference title.
Clemson is only in if SMU or Miami finishes the season with two conference losses. Thanks to their loss to Louisville – a team beaten by both SMU and Miami – the Tigers lose any two- or three-team tiebreaker at 7-1 in the tiebreaker of common ACC opponents.
Big 12
1. BYU (9-1, 6-1 Big 12)
2. Colorado (8-2, 6-1)
3. Arizona State (8-2, 5-2)
3. Iowa State (8-2, 5-2)
5. Baylor (6-4, 4-3)
5. Kansas State (7-3, 4-3)
5. TCU (6-4, 4-3)
5. Texas Tech (6-4, 4-3)
5. West Virginia (5-5, 4-3)
The Big 12 has more teams mathematically eligible for the conference title than any other power conference. It’s still possible, although incredibly unlikely, that two 6-3 teams will meet in the championship game.
For now, we’ll ignore this scenario because there are still too many variables at play. Both BYU and Colorado would have to lose on Saturday. The easiest way to determine the title game participants is for the Cougars and Buffaloes to win. This is the game if they finish the season at 8-1. If there are tiebreakers to determine the two participants, the record of the tied teams against common opponents will come into play.
BYU is an underdog at Arizona State this weekend. If the Sun Devils win, they will advance to the Big 12 title game with a win over Arizona in the final week of the season thanks to Kansas. ASU beat Kansas, while the Jayhawks picked up wins over BYU and Iowa State.
If there is a four-team tie at 7-2 and Colorado loses to Kansas, Arizona State would likely face Iowa State for the conference title. The Sun Devils would have the advantage among common opponents thanks to, you guessed it, this win against KU. If Colorado beats Kansas and loses to Oklahoma State, the Buffaloes will face Arizona State in a four-team tie.
Big Ten
1. Oregon (11-0, 8-0 Big Ten)
2. Indiana (10-0, 7-0)
3. Ohio State (9-1, 6-1)
4. Penn State (9-1, 6-1)
We’ll have a lot more clarity on the Big Ten title race after Indiana and Ohio State play at noon ET on Sunday. Oregon is already in the Big Ten title game after its win at Wisconsin. It’s a three-for-one scenario to see who the Ducks play.
The winner of Saturday’s game in Columbus has a huge advantage for this spot, while Penn State is behind. Whoever earns the top five advances to the title game with a victory in the final week of the season. Indiana has cellar dweller Purdue to finish the season while Ohio State hosts its annual rivalry game with Michigan. An 11-1 Penn State needs Ohio State to win Saturday and lose to the Wolverines to beat Indiana via a tiebreaker involving the winning percentage of each team’s opponents.
SECOND
1. Texas (9-1, 5-1 SEC)
1. Texas A&M (8-2, 5-1)
3. Georgia (8-2, 6-2)
4.Tennessee (8-2, 5-2)
5. Alabama (8-2, 4-2)
5. Ole Miss (8-2, 4-2)
What if the six teams listed above finished 6-2? It’s not impossible. If either Texas or Texas A&M loses on Saturday and this week’s loser wins the game between the two teams on November 30, both teams are 6-2. Tennessee will likely be favored over Vanderbilt in the final week of the season and Alabama and Ole Miss are favorites in their final two games.
In this situation, the SEC would break the tie via the conference records of the six teams’ SEC opponents. So far, Alabama and Texas A&M have the advantage, while Tennessee and Ole Miss are at a serious disadvantage.
If Texas and Texas A&M win on Saturday, the winner of their renewed rivalry will be in the SEC title game thanks to a 7-1 record. And Alabama would appear to have the edge again in a three-or-more team tiebreaker at 6-2 because of the record of its conference opponents.
