Why signing Blake Snell wouldn’t be a smart move for the Red Sox originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
The Red Sox need to improve their rotation, but Blake Snell is not the way to do it.
The two-time Cy Young Award winner it looks good on paper. It’s right there in the description: two-time Cy Young Award winner. But if ever there was a time for John Henry to heed his old fear of signing pitchers in their 30s to huge contracts, it’s Snell.
The Red Sox would be engaged to the left-handed after opting out of his contract with the Giants, and signing him will only require money and not draft picks, since he was ineligible to receive the qualifying offer.
While past durability is no guarantee of future durability — the Red Sox learned that lesson the hard way with David Price, not to mention Lucas Giolito — past fragility is a flashing neon danger sign, and Snell shines Effectively.
He topped 130 innings exactly twice in his nine-year career, and each time he reached 180 frames while winning Cy Young hardware. If you’re going to pay nine figures for it, you’d like to be guaranteed full-time production.
But a few weeks shy of his 32nd birthday, Snell looks more like a 24-start, 125-inning pitcher than a horse. It has value, but not if you are the Red Sox are trying to find an ace to slot into the top of the rotation.
Snell has missed time throughout his career due to adductor, groin, shoulder and elbow injuries, the last of which required arthroscopic surgery in 2019. He also broke a toe when moving furniture.
His 2024 was a disaster, thanks to a rare miscalculation by agent Scott Boras, who held a handful of clients until spring training with disastrous results. Snell didn’t join the Giants until late March, by which time the market for a long-term deal had evaporated. He signed for two years and $62 million with an opt-out clause before enduring an injury-riddled first half that gave San Francisco little return on investment.
By the time Snell returned to form in the second half, the Giants were out of contention. However, over his last 14 starts, he has gone 5-0 with a 1.23 ERA, setting himself up for another payday this winter.
He probably won’t get a six-year deal, but even after four years, the Red Sox should consider other options. What they can least afford is to make a significant commitment to a player who is unavailable.
The temptation to add Snell could be strong, however. Aside from not needing to give up a draft pick to sign him, there are also his stellar numbers under the hood. His walk rate has been high throughout his career because of the way his pitches move, but Snell otherwise scores very well across the board. His fastball, curveball, slider, and changeup are all legitimate pitches, and he doesn’t give up home runs either.
The question is whether he will be available, and that possibility should trump everything else. If the Red Sox think Snell is a bust candidate, they should sprint in the other direction and find a pitcher elsewhere.
