USC and Oklahoma will have Lincoln Riley and Brent Venables as head coaches in 2025. The real question is, “Will they employ Riley and Venables in 2026?” The 2024 coaching carousel is about to get into action, with the teams’ regular season wrapping up in just a few weeks. Florida won’t fire Billy Napier this year, but Napier is certainly on the ice in 2025. If he doesn’t win at least eight or nine games, he’ll be gone and not coaching in 2026 in Gainesville. USC and Oklahoma have to ask themselves what would be good enough in 2025 for Riley and Venables to stick around until 2026. We proposed this basic assessment of the two situations:
“Riley will coach at USC in 2025. Venables will coach at Oklahoma in 2025. No one should be under any illusion that either coach will be fired. They will only coach next year. they resign or go elsewhere, which is very unlikely.
“The reality of the situation is that if both coaches suffer horrible 2025 seasons similar to 2024, they could be gone by 2026. It’s crazy to contemplate, but Riley and Venables are really in the hot seat the next year. They’ve coached themselves into a corner and need to show they can get out of it.”
Let’s talk about what it will take for Riley and Venables to escape the hot seat next year, and what happens next if one or both struggle and face the possibility of being fired in 12 months.
WHAT SHOULD YOU DO?
Neither USC nor Oklahoma has clinched bowl eligibility as of November 10. This is completely unacceptable at both schools. It’s safe to say that neither Lincoln Riley nor Brent Venables will be able to hold that position come November. Both men will need to win at least eight games next year to avoid a serious firing discussion. The real question is: are eight enough? Maybe not. Nine wins solidify each of them, but that 8-4 middle ground is the real point of uncertainty. Riley and Venables — or anyone paid handsomely to coach at USC or Oklahoma — shouldn’t go 8-4. Still, given the severity of the situation at both places, an 8-4 would represent progress, but not much. A 9-3 season offers real reason to think 2026 could turn into a big year, but 8-4 might not be enough to satisfy fans. This is probably where this discussion needs to start. 7-5 should earn a pink rating – on that almost everyone can and should agree.
USC DECISIONS
Lincoln Riley faces a very urgent decision: keep or fire offensive line coach Josh Henson? We think Henson should be let go, with one caveat: If Henson is able to sign multiple five-star offensive linemen and is also able to land an elite transfer portal offensive tackle, that would be enough to make up for it. current weaknesses and faults. If Henson can’t provide substantial proof that he’s poised to hit 500-foot home runs and become the Shohei Ohtani of the recruiting trail and gate, he needs to go. It doesn’t hit the mark.
USC QUARTERBACK
USC’s 2025 quarterback situation is about to take on new dimensions with Jayden Maiava getting the start against Nebraska. Maiava needs to impress in this audition for the 2025 starting job. This should have a domino effect on what Miller Moss does. This could have an effect on what Julian Lewis decides to do. This could also affect Lincoln Riley’s transfer portal plan at the position. Many things remain unresolved. We need to see what Maiava does. Come back in a few weeks and we can reevaluate this situation.
OKLAHOMA’S DECISIONS
Oklahoma and Brent Venables are set to fill a vacant offensive coordinator position. Venables needs to find the right guy to run his offense. Ironically, Lincoln Riley would be the best possible choice, but we know that will never happen. If OU’s offense continues to fail, Venables likely won’t coach beyond 2025 in Norman.
OKLAHOMA QUARTERBACK
USC’s 2025 quarterback situation is unresolved. The same goes for Oklahoma. Venables either needs to find a coordinator who can unleash the talent of Jackson Arnold, or he needs to go big in the portal and find a guy who can be the big dog of the Earlier. Our focus right now: Venables probably needs to head to the portal and not take a chance on a young and unproven Arnold.
CAROL FOLT’S RETIREMENT
Carol Folt retiring from USC next year introduces new political intrigue into the Lincoln Riley situation. We have no way of knowing at this point what the new president will think of Riley. This is a wild card and we will have to wait to find out more next July.
DEFENSES ARE GOOD
If there is reason for optimism at USC and Oklahoma, it comes on the defensive side of the ball. Venables (OU) and D’Anton Lynn (USC) are smart defensive coaches. If these defenses can remain healthy in 2025, they should be good. It all depends on the offenses, quarterbacks and offensive lines of both schools. These are the main pressure points for Riley and Venables.
COACHING CAROUSEL 2025
The 2024 coaching carousel may not be hyperactive as Florida opted not to fire Billy Napier. However, the carousel of 2025 — a year away — could be crazy if USC or Oklahoma stumble and a new coach is demanded by fans and boosters.
Curt Cignetti is the obvious #1 candidate. He will most likely stay in Indiana in 2025, barring an improbable twist, but everyone will be scrambling to get him next November based on his work at Indiana. Will USC and Oklahoma enter into a bidding war for Cignetti? Will Florida be in the race if Napier doesn’t survive the 2025 season? It’s next year’s coaching carousel, not this one, that could be spectacular — much like the 2021 carousel in which Riley left Oklahoma and Venables replaced him.
It will be interesting to see if any movement in the coaching carousel for 2024 over the next couple of months influences the calculation for 2025. That will be something to pay attention to. Stay tuned.
This article was originally published on Trojans Wire: As the 2024 coaching carousel begins to spin, USC and Oklahoma are thinking ahead to 2025
